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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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You guys can't seriously look at h132 and think this is going to be a hit, can you? 
138 looks similar in evolution and structure at h5 to 18z yesterday, but the juxtaposition is a decent bit east of that. 
No one said it was a replica of 18z but it did make a recovery. These things take 2 to 3 runs to fully recover if they ever do
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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Gfs made a substantial shift towards (imo) a problematic track. I'd prefer a few of those in the mix leading in. You don't want the left shoulder written off in a progressive pattern 

Out to sea solutions and southern sliders are the worst to me. I'd rather flirt with a snow to rain track then a wind track

We need to watch that drag in the tail as the sw drops thru the west. With the tpv lobe running out in front it could get cutoff completely. This panel shows the risk to my eyes. Speed up the tpv/polar jet energy and the dig cuts off down south somewhere. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png

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Just now, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:
You guys can't seriously look at h132 and think this is going to be a hit, can you? 
138 looks similar in evolution and structure at h5 to 18z yesterday, but the juxtaposition is a decent bit east of that. 

No one said it was a replica of 18z but it did make a recovery. These things take 2 to 3 runs to fully recover if they ever do

It woulda been nice if that additional piece of N/S energy that drops down at 138/144 would phase into the backside and help turn the axis more negative. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

We need to watch that drag in the tail as the sw drops thru the west. With the tpv lobe running out in front it could get cutoff completely. This panel shows the risk to my eyes. Speed up the tpv/polar jet energy and the dig cuts off down south somewhere. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png

That could, like you said, be either good or completely eliminate the potential altogether. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We need to watch that drag in the tail as the sw drops thru the west. With the tpv lobe running out in front it could get cutoff completely. This panel shows the risk to my eyes. Speed up the tpv/polar jet energy and the dig cuts off down south somewhere. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png

That’s exactly what we need imo.

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

That could, like you said, be either good or completely eliminate the potential altogether. 

Could be great or awful. One thing it would do is add a few days to the progression. I hate delays with progressive cold but a cutoff attacking from the south can be fun af. We'll see

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Could be great or awful. One thing it would do is add a few days to the progression. I hate delays with progressive cold but a cutoff attacking from the south can be fun af. We'll see

As you said, it's that "tail". saw it early on.  It's literally such a drag.

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We were never out of it. As [mention=9895]MillvilleWx[/mention] explained so well, most snowstorms in our area don’t get sniffed out outside 4 days. We are never out of the game until the fat lady sings. 6 days out isn’t that time. 
Stop saying its 6 days out. The storm is fully mature at 6 days. Look at 3 days out
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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

CMC looks pretty good so far

 

Certainly a lot better than 0z, just need the trough to take on more neutral/neg tilt easier. Energy is all phasing together pretty well in that evolution. Some stuff coming in on the backside to help tilt this. Assume a close miss, but a much cleaner evolution as well. 

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