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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
That being said, it still is different vs 6z...northern vort digging back further west it seems I'm at hour 90

Gfs looks better i think so far..maybe a slight recovery?

It does to me, but I didn't want to say anything..too early.  Let's let it play out

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Jokes aside, I never doubted this window and the regulars killed identifying and dissecting the parts. My "pessimism" only stems from one thing... I've tracked at least a dozen of these volatile big storm setups with no block. They can produce big time but I fookin hate one lane highways with an amplified ripping jet whipping shit around. Off shore in this case is just the right shoulder of the one lane to success. Being in the shoulder now isn't different from being in the way. Tracking closely now is just an exercise in watching goal posts narrow with no chance at nailing anything other than pure luck (imo only)
Also, of the dozen or whatever number I've tracked, very very few became a big storm that worked here. The ones that do are usually written off 3-4 times leading in. If you like tracking the goal posts narrowing, this is a great setup. If you like consistency and an "easy way" to snow, log off or don't complain. 
I need the modeling to be super accurate starting at 180 no matter if its a progressive or flat flow. That is the single key to getting our roi back to where it is for other hobbies
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1 minute ago, Ji said:

I need the modeling to be super accurate starting at 180 no matter if its a progressive or flat flow. That is the single key to getting our roi back to where it is for other hobbies

Not sure about you my friend, but there is a 100% chance of that not happening before the only thing left of me is my posts here

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Has any solution gone west of us yet? 

Not since the storm 8 days ago

Gfs made a substantial shift towards (imo) a problematic track. I'd prefer a few of those in the mix leading in. You don't want the left shoulder written off in a progressive pattern 

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Just now, Interstate said:

I mean it is only holding the SW back by 300 miles or so. Lol

Looks like a little more drag and it cuts off and stays behind. That could be great or epically disastrous. I'd personally prefer no cutoffs well south but the world doesn't give af about what I want

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Gfs made a substantial shift towards (imo) a problematic track. I'd prefer a few of those in the mix leading in. You don't want the left shoulder written off in a progressive pattern 
Out to sea solutions and southern sliders are the worst to me. I'd rather flirt with a snow to rain track then a wind track
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