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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

My thoughts (which are worth less than penny candy): I think we need to start seeing some positive moves (not direct hits necessarily) by 0z runs tomorrow night.  If solutions start becoming stable with offshore looks after that time, then we can probably guess how this is going to end.

I agree. There comes a point when the general look on models is consistent enough to know when you’re out of the game. The changes in smaller details that always happen simply won’t make a difference to the weather in your backyard.

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19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I just need it to be over from Feb 9 - 14.  I'll be in Mexico.  So I hope yall can enjoy 60's for that period.  It's a short break, you'll be fine!  I'll be back in time for our prime time...and President's Day 4 storm. 

Enjoy!  We went to Puerto Rico Jan. 8-15 and it was a thrill to take off at 18 degrees and land at 83.  Then we got back in time to enjoy the 3" on the 16th before it switched.  Man I wish that one had a better track!

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Having fun yet tracking steep hills in a progressive pattern at pretty long leads? I'm having a hard time deciding between tracking this event or contracting chlamydia. Brb

Tough choice, I know!  Maybe add "root canal" to your list of things to decide on that might be as much fun.  Those are always good (and yes, I've gotten a root canal once!).

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I'm just happy the Packers lost...reading this thread last night somebody needs his binky....19 years and counting with the same lines same meltdowns same threats to move and yet still in the exact same spot with the same lines same meltdowns same threats to move....19 years and counting 
Can't wait for year 20... maybe ill swap out a word or two to get more current
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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ok...I'm prepping for the Varsity models.  Got my tabs loaded up.  I'll try to be more detailed since I get the movie before most of yall...but I type too fast.   Anyway, open the curtains, dim the lights...it's showtime

It’s really amusing how you’ve taken over for Bob’s old ways. He tells everyone to not waste time at long leads and their ROI, and you’ve been locked in on this one since 9 days out ;)

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I'm going to have to watch this run come out after the topsy turvy model analysis we've seen the last few days. Ji will tell us its a disaster regardless. 

through what hour? 

I amended.  I had so many damn tabs open, I was comparing it to the 18z run from yesterday, wrong time frame too.  Oof

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Jokes aside, I never doubted this window and the regulars killed identifying and dissecting the parts. My "pessimism" only stems from one thing... I've tracked at least a dozen of these volatile big storm setups with no block. They can produce big time but I fookin hate one lane highways with an amplified ripping jet whipping shit around. Off shore in this case is just the right shoulder of the one lane to success. Being in the shoulder now isn't different from being in the way. Tracking closely now is just an exercise in watching goal posts narrow with no chance at nailing anything other than pure luck (imo only)

Also, of the dozen or whatever number I've tracked, very very few became a big storm that worked here. The ones that do are usually written off 3-4 times leading in. If you like tracking the goal posts narrowing, this is a great setup. If you like consistency and an "easy way" to snow, log off or don't complain. 

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