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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nor this

1643425200-XyCKlb8Fo64.png

I should qualify my statements. Perhaps that can produce snow for the far eastern areas, IDK. But for my location, that is simply way too far east. Now if somehow that trough is sitting over Miss/La a few frames before that map, then yeah, but not that setup.

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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I should qualify my statements. Perhaps that can produce snow for the far eastern areas, IDK. But for my location, that is simply way too far east. Now if somehow that trough is sitting over Miss/La a few frames before that map, then yeah, but not that setup.

I get it, but we are still several days out.  Big picture.. We need the W US ridge amped and the ridge axis to be favorable(slightly west) to get the dig and the trough orientation neutral, then negative as it approaches the coast to have a chance. We are fighting the tendency in a progressive pattern for positively oriented troughs exiting stage right with late/offshore surface development. I thought 6z looked pretty good. 

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I get it, but we are still several days out.  Big picture.. We need the W US ridge amped and the ridge axis to be favorable(slightly west) to get the dig and the trough orientation neutral, then negative as it approaches the coast to have a chance. We are fighting the tendency in a progressive pattern for positively oriented troughs exiting stage right. I thought 6z looked pretty good. 

I agree. I also think it matters which “pieces” we are talking about. I tried to make a couple of crude illustrations of what I see. On the 18z run, the pieces of energy (circled) that created the storm were “together” and stacked more n/s. These pieces were gone on the 0z run. 6z brought them back somewhat, but more e/w stacked. Also the downside to the ridge was much farther west and vertical on the 18z run than it is on the 6z run. This is simply happening too far east/slow for my area to get a storm. Heck, 18z was too late for me. Just my thoughts.95DA9C8D-A7F6-415B-9249-6DF69867E5DF.thumb.jpeg.5a628c04cac1d673f29ea616e5a06fa9.jpeg7E45A9DE-7B05-44B7-A691-92D0FB0E6E2E.thumb.jpeg.28cb1fb91698408f78438f72eabd2585.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I agree. I also think it matters which “pieces” we are talking about. I tried to make a couple of crude illustrations of what I see. On the 18z run, the pieces of energy (circled) that created the storm were “together” and stacked more n/s. These pieces were gone on the 0z run. 6z brought them back somewhat, but more e/w stacked. Also the downside to the ridge was much farther west and vertical on the 18z run than it is on the 6z run. This is simply happening too far east/slow for my area to get a storm. Heck, 18z was too late for me. Just my thoughts.95DA9C8D-A7F6-415B-9249-6DF69867E5DF.thumb.jpeg.5a628c04cac1d673f29ea616e5a06fa9.jpeg7E45A9DE-7B05-44B7-A691-92D0FB0E6E2E.thumb.jpeg.28cb1fb91698408f78438f72eabd2585.jpeg

It is a touchy set up, and the pieces and the interactions shift run to run. I like to do analysis upstairs, but I have sort of zoomed out on this one. I take a quick look each cycle, compare it to the previous 2, then look at the ens mean. You get a feel for where things are 'trending'. I said this more than a week ago now- that the advertised h5 look on the means at that time for this period looked like one favoring coastal scrapers and maybe an offshore tracking bomb. Maybe this one is our bomb cyclone with a track a bit closer in. At this range, I still would not rule out some (unforeseen) piece of NS energy phasing in and pulling this right along the coast- good for you maybe not for me- although that would probably occur to the benefit of our friends to the NE in this case. Without much help in the NA the outcome largely comes down to timing.

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Mount Holly this morning...yes, we have a period to watch, lol.

The pattern becomes more interesting/complicated to close the week, as a high-amplitude, positively-tilted trough moves into the eastern third-to-half of the country. A digging vort max near the base of the trough will encourage strong downstream ridging in the western Atlantic and cyclogenesis near or just off the Southeast coast. Meanwhile, a front attendant to the trough should shift southeastward across the Northeast. Exactly how these features evolve will be critical in the forecast track of the rapidly deepening low off the Atlantic coast during the weekend. Models have trended farther offshore (in general) during the past 24 hours and are in reasonably decent agreement for this time range. However, the causal mechanisms for the development of this storm are of low predictability in general, and their interactions are extremely sensitive to processes not well resolved at this time range. Thus, the offshore trend should probably be taken cautiously at this time. Bottom line is this will be a time period to watch, as the ocean storm remains close enough for potential winter- and marine-weather impacts.

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Sterling: LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Very cold Wed under strong CAA and 25 mph winds with highs not
likely getting out of the mid 20s east of the Blue Ridge. Wind
chill values will be in the teens all day and below zero in the
mountains. Strong Canadian high pressure builds overhead Wed
night leading to a very cold night. Could see lows dropping as
low as they did yesterday (Saturday) morning or perhaps a few
degs lower.

A significant shortwave drops through the Great Lks Thu-Fri with
global models continuing to indicate strong cyclogenesis
offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast next weekend. 24-hr model
trends have shown sfc development occurring farther north and
offshore limiting any precip potential over our area with only
gale conditions over the waters the most likely impact at this
time.

For snow lovers, it appears one more last chance for a winter
storm to begin next month before EPO and NAO all switch
positive and upper level pattern flips.
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Just now, CAPE said:

It would be nice for something to 'pan out' before the month is over. The first week of Jan was pretty epic here, but other than the 0.8" of snow before the driving rain last Sunday, its been generally cold here but not much else. I'll take a bookend.

JB has always said that a flip in the pattern usually involves a big storm (duh but whatever).   If we're going to flip to a warm pattern in February that's when I'd expect our last chance at a big storm comes...basically your bookend.  

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5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:
Sterling: LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Very cold Wed under strong CAA and 25 mph winds with highs not
likely getting out of the mid 20s east of the Blue Ridge. Wind
chill values will be in the teens all day and below zero in the
mountains. Strong Canadian high pressure builds overhead Wed
night leading to a very cold night. Could see lows dropping as
low as they did yesterday (Saturday) morning or perhaps a few
degs lower.

A significant shortwave drops through the Great Lks Thu-Fri with
global models continuing to indicate strong cyclogenesis
offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast next weekend. 24-hr model
trends have shown sfc development occurring farther north and
offshore limiting any precip potential over our area with only
gale conditions over the waters the most likely impact at this
time.

For snow lovers, it appears one more last chance for a winter
storm to begin next month before EPO and NAO all switch
positive and upper level pattern flips.

lol @ one last chance before the February torch. They make it sound like they actually know something.

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Euro and GFS ensemble teleconnections charts are in general agreement heading into early February. Both like the AO to go negative but both are in strong agreement of a somewhat strong positive EPO. One trend to watch is they are slowly backing away from s prolonged negative PNA and actually appear to have it nudging close to neutral by the the end of the period. WPO has consistently modeled to remain deeply negative on both models. NAO is not great on either chart but it's also not off the grid positive. If we get another nice period of blocking hopefully it is not until mid March like in 2018 and maybe the PAC will still be workable. I see no reason to be overly pessimistic.

February could turn out to be quite the fight!

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37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And even if there is some sort of magical flip, nothing says it has to last long. Canada is cold at the end of it’s run according to the gfs. Even more so on the ensembles.

Exactly. They make it sounds like winter is over within a couple weeks. Just a dumb statement from an official source.

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5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Exactly. They make it sounds like winter is over within a couple weeks. Just a dumb statement from an official source.

I just need it to be over from Feb 9 - 14.  I'll be in Mexico.  So I hope yall can enjoy 60's for that period.  It's a short break, you'll be fine!  I'll be back in time for our prime time...and President's Day 4 storm. 

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My thoughts (which are worth less than penny candy): I think we need to start seeing some positive moves (not direct hits necessarily) by 0z runs tomorrow night.  If solutions start becoming stable with offshore looks after that time, then we can probably guess how this is going to end.

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