WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nor this I should qualify my statements. Perhaps that can produce snow for the far eastern areas, IDK. But for my location, that is simply way too far east. Now if somehow that trough is sitting over Miss/La a few frames before that map, then yeah, but not that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I should qualify my statements. Perhaps that can produce snow for the far eastern areas, IDK. But for my location, that is simply way too far east. Now if somehow that trough is sitting over Miss/La a few frames before that map, then yeah, but not that setup. I get it, but we are still several days out. Big picture.. We need the W US ridge amped and the ridge axis to be favorable(slightly west) to get the dig and the trough orientation neutral, then negative as it approaches the coast to have a chance. We are fighting the tendency in a progressive pattern for positively oriented troughs exiting stage right with late/offshore surface development. I thought 6z looked pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 hours ago, jayyy said: Much rather be missing wide right and cold / dry, than be in the bullseye 6 days out. Every, single, time. But in this pattern the storms trend washed out and stay that way. I actually think this is not a pattern that will produce anything and am ready for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I get it, but we are still several days out. Big picture.. We need the W US ridge amped and the ridge axis to be favorable(slightly west) to get the dig and the trough orientation neutral, then negative as it approaches the coast to have a chance. We are fighting the tendency in a progressive pattern for positively oriented troughs exiting stage right. I thought 6z looked pretty good. I agree. I also think it matters which “pieces” we are talking about. I tried to make a couple of crude illustrations of what I see. On the 18z run, the pieces of energy (circled) that created the storm were “together” and stacked more n/s. These pieces were gone on the 0z run. 6z brought them back somewhat, but more e/w stacked. Also the downside to the ridge was much farther west and vertical on the 18z run than it is on the 6z run. This is simply happening too far east/slow for my area to get a storm. Heck, 18z was too late for me. Just my thoughts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I agree. I also think it matters which “pieces” we are talking about. I tried to make a couple of crude illustrations of what I see. On the 18z run, the pieces of energy (circled) that created the storm were “together” and stacked more n/s. These pieces were gone on the 0z run. 6z brought them back somewhat, but more e/w stacked. Also the downside to the ridge was much farther west and vertical on the 18z run than it is on the 6z run. This is simply happening too far east/slow for my area to get a storm. Heck, 18z was too late for me. Just my thoughts. It is a touchy set up, and the pieces and the interactions shift run to run. I like to do analysis upstairs, but I have sort of zoomed out on this one. I take a quick look each cycle, compare it to the previous 2, then look at the ens mean. You get a feel for where things are 'trending'. I said this more than a week ago now- that the advertised h5 look on the means at that time for this period looked like one favoring coastal scrapers and maybe an offshore tracking bomb. Maybe this one is our bomb cyclone with a track a bit closer in. At this range, I still would not rule out some (unforeseen) piece of NS energy phasing in and pulling this right along the coast- good for you maybe not for me- although that would probably occur to the benefit of our friends to the NE in this case. Without much help in the NA the outcome largely comes down to timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Mount Holly this morning...yes, we have a period to watch, lol. The pattern becomes more interesting/complicated to close the week, as a high-amplitude, positively-tilted trough moves into the eastern third-to-half of the country. A digging vort max near the base of the trough will encourage strong downstream ridging in the western Atlantic and cyclogenesis near or just off the Southeast coast. Meanwhile, a front attendant to the trough should shift southeastward across the Northeast. Exactly how these features evolve will be critical in the forecast track of the rapidly deepening low off the Atlantic coast during the weekend. Models have trended farther offshore (in general) during the past 24 hours and are in reasonably decent agreement for this time range. However, the causal mechanisms for the development of this storm are of low predictability in general, and their interactions are extremely sensitive to processes not well resolved at this time range. Thus, the offshore trend should probably be taken cautiously at this time. Bottom line is this will be a time period to watch, as the ocean storm remains close enough for potential winter- and marine-weather impacts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 WB latest Extended GEFS. There should be other opportunities if next weekend does not pan out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Sterling: LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Very cold Wed under strong CAA and 25 mph winds with highs not likely getting out of the mid 20s east of the Blue Ridge. Wind chill values will be in the teens all day and below zero in the mountains. Strong Canadian high pressure builds overhead Wed night leading to a very cold night. Could see lows dropping as low as they did yesterday (Saturday) morning or perhaps a few degs lower. A significant shortwave drops through the Great Lks Thu-Fri with global models continuing to indicate strong cyclogenesis offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast next weekend. 24-hr model trends have shown sfc development occurring farther north and offshore limiting any precip potential over our area with only gale conditions over the waters the most likely impact at this time. For snow lovers, it appears one more last chance for a winter storm to begin next month before EPO and NAO all switch positive and upper level pattern flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It would be nice for something to 'pan out' before the month is over. The first week of Jan was pretty epic here, but other than the 0.8" of snow before the driving rain last Sunday, its been generally cold here but not much else. I'll take a bookend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: It would be nice for something to 'pan out' before the month is over. The first week of Jan was pretty epic here, but other than the 0.8" of snow before the driving rain last Sunday, its been generally cold here but not much else. I'll take a bookend. JB has always said that a flip in the pattern usually involves a big storm (duh but whatever). If we're going to flip to a warm pattern in February that's when I'd expect our last chance at a big storm comes...basically your bookend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Sterling: LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Very cold Wed under strong CAA and 25 mph winds with highs not likely getting out of the mid 20s east of the Blue Ridge. Wind chill values will be in the teens all day and below zero in the mountains. Strong Canadian high pressure builds overhead Wed night leading to a very cold night. Could see lows dropping as low as they did yesterday (Saturday) morning or perhaps a few degs lower. A significant shortwave drops through the Great Lks Thu-Fri with global models continuing to indicate strong cyclogenesis offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast next weekend. 24-hr model trends have shown sfc development occurring farther north and offshore limiting any precip potential over our area with only gale conditions over the waters the most likely impact at this time. For snow lovers, it appears one more last chance for a winter storm to begin next month before EPO and NAO all switch positive and upper level pattern flips. lol @ one last chance before the February torch. They make it sound like they actually know something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol @ one last chance before the February torch. They make it sound like they actually know something. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: lol @ one last chance before the February torch. They make it sound like they know something. That’s an awful end to that disco. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, mattie g said: That’s an awful end to that disco. Same assclowns that measure at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, mattie g said: That’s an awful end to that disco. And even if there is some sort of magical flip, nothing says it has to last long. Canada is cold at the end of it’s run according to the gfs. Even more so on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 WB Extended GEFS does not show torch through mid February but trends normal by mid month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 15 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Crush job for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB Extended GEFS does not show torch through mid February but trends normal by mid month That’s great because Feb is our big snow month. Normal works just fine. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 When CntrTim wakes up and tries to come into our forum, for some odd reason, the MA forum won't even show up for him. Tragic. Vice-R...titptoe cautiously 19 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I'm just happy the Packers lost...reading this thread last night somebody needs his binky....19 years and counting with the same lines same meltdowns same threats to move and yet still in the exact same spot with the same lines same meltdowns same threats to move....19 years and counting 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 What times are considered off model run and why do we call them off model runs. Is it because of less data ingestion? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Euro and GFS ensemble teleconnections charts are in general agreement heading into early February. Both like the AO to go negative but both are in strong agreement of a somewhat strong positive EPO. One trend to watch is they are slowly backing away from s prolonged negative PNA and actually appear to have it nudging close to neutral by the the end of the period. WPO has consistently modeled to remain deeply negative on both models. NAO is not great on either chart but it's also not off the grid positive. If we get another nice period of blocking hopefully it is not until mid March like in 2018 and maybe the PAC will still be workable. I see no reason to be overly pessimistic. February could turn out to be quite the fight! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And even if there is some sort of magical flip, nothing says it has to last long. Canada is cold at the end of it’s run according to the gfs. Even more so on the ensembles. Exactly. They make it sounds like winter is over within a couple weeks. Just a dumb statement from an official source. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, Solution Man said: What times are considered off model run and why do we call them off model runs. Is it because of less data ingestion? thanks 18z and 06z because there aren't the 12z and 0z RAOBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: Exactly. They make it sounds like winter is over within a couple weeks. Just a dumb statement from an official source. I just need it to be over from Feb 9 - 14. I'll be in Mexico. So I hope yall can enjoy 60's for that period. It's a short break, you'll be fine! I'll be back in time for our prime time...and President's Day 4 storm. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 57 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Same assclowns that measure at DCA Believe FAA measures at DCA and that discussion is written by NWS WFO LWX employees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 My thoughts (which are worth less than penny candy): I think we need to start seeing some positive moves (not direct hits necessarily) by 0z runs tomorrow night. If solutions start becoming stable with offshore looks after that time, then we can probably guess how this is going to end. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 18z and 06z because there aren't the 12z and 0z RAOBs. Cool, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 18z and 06z because there aren't the 12z and 0z RAOBs. RAOBs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: RAOBs? https://www.weather.gov/rah/virtualtourballoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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