WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: FWIW, the GEFS has the AO nearing neutral at the end of the storm (~0z Jan 31st). That at least can't hurt, but yeah there is definitely a ceiling given the pattern. Thanks. Neutral AO is certainly better than ++AO. PNA and AO are the 2 indices best correlated to DCA snowstorms. Having one or the either in a great position is a major help, especially if the other isn’t explicitly hostile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think @high riskhas said what’s going to happen eventually is the new mesoscale model that will replace the NAM will be run hourly. Going to be fun! Great so once a storm is inside 84 hours there is basically no down time. We all gonna be like by the time a storm actually starts. 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The Euro doesn’t answer prayers IF (MA_weenie_prayers)=.true. THEN PRINT, “Gott ist tot” ENDIF 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 So what is our bust here? Best guesses? Ill go with low ends up too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 If there is going to be a MECS or BECS would think EURO would get on board within the next day or so….I am not saying exact track just the idea of a big Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: IF (MA_weenie_prayers)=.true. THEN PRINT, “Gott ist tot” ENDIF Failure: unknown token named ‘MA_weenie_prayers’ on line 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The Euro doesn’t answer prayers The EURO needs prayers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: The EURO needs prayers. So does the Tuesday event according to the HRRR. Why cant we get a god damn clipper to track south of us in the Mid Atlantic anymore? They are like a frikin unicorn now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: So does the Tuesday event according to the HRRR. Why cant we get a god damn clipper to track south of us in the Mid Atlantic anymore? They are like a frikin unicorn now. I was just thinking this the other day. Clippers typically are moisture starved once they cross the mountains, but can give a simple way to eek out a few inches or more. No mixing or temperature issues involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: So does the Tuesday event according to the HRRR. Why cant we get a god damn clipper to track south of us in the Mid Atlantic anymore? They are like a frikin unicorn now. I was wondering the same earlier today, it seems like it has been years since a formidable clipper tracked south of the Mason-Dixon line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is much improved out west. less of a kicker, which leads to a deeper, farther W trough as a result What do you make of the separation between the TPV in Quebec and the sw in the SE US? More evident with the new run just wondering what implications might be either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What do you make of the separation between the TPV in Quebec and the sw in the SE US? More evident with the new run just wondering what implications might be either way. probably less confluence over SE Canada, which may allow for a bit more weakness in the heights, opening up an inland runner possibility. however, I think a suppressed solution due to a late phase / sheared energy is a much more likely way to fail here 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: unless it trends toward a different H5 pattern, there will be no snowstorm, not even close 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I loledSent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: probably less confluence over SE Canada, which may allow for a bit more weakness in the heights, opening up an inland runner possibility. however, I think a suppressed solution due to a late phase / sheared energy is a much more likely way to fail here Gotta wonder if a little less confluence would be a net positive here given some of the other more suppressed/late phase solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The weenies in the Southeastern Thread is something else. So many weenie hearts that will likely be destroyed come 00z 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: The weenies in the Southeastern Thread is something else. So many weenie hearts that will likely be destroyed come 00z And you would be doing the same thing! We will all be destroyed come 0z, together, as a group lol 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Man that 18Z is a thing of legends. Could it possibly be any better? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Checkout these super widespread wind gusts for the Gfs blizzard. Massive rip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Man that 18Z is a thing of legends. Could it possibly be any better?Its like the 3rd best run of the week lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said: Maybe. . but we were shoveling snow this morning and you weren't! Why are you here troll? Go back to your mid week 60's. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 If I don't get another 12 inch storm total here in NW Stafford this winter is a failure based on the 18z. Plenty of time to get moreSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said: Maybe. . but we were shoveling snow this morning and you weren't! This you troll? 7 Inches your best in years? That is an average Wednesday in January here. GO AWAY TROLL. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said: Apparently not this year!! You really want to place a bet on which one of us ends up with more snow this year? GO AWAY TROLL. You have a board and it isnt this one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said: Apparently not this year!! gtfo. You add nothing 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Damn, I set off regional fireworks in here… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Alright guys best thoughts for 0z! PS why am I post limited but not Chuck and Tim who are terrible! PSS we are blessed to have storm tracker as an admin . 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said: "01/03/22 .7 Big storm for the east fringes us to the NW. Fredericksburg gets 15 inches. I get less than in inch. " Shot water out of my nose reading this one. Just visualizing you outside measuring 0.7" of snow and then looking out to the SE muttering expletives towards Fredericksburg while your neighbors question your sanity from the safety of their curtains. Just too silly. Let's get back on track brother we celebrate each other's victories in here. Not sure how they roll at your place/sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said: "01/03/22 .7 Big storm for the east fringes us to the NW. Fredericksburg gets 15 inches. I get less than in inch. " Shot water out of my nose reading this one. Just visualizing you outside measuring 0.7" of snow and then looking out to the SE muttering expletives towards Fredericksburg while your neighbors question your sanity from the safety of their curtains. Funny. I dont even think about you or your area while the flakes pour here. Because I know you live in the tropics compared to my area. I have a place at the beach. And I have a place in the mountains so I can experience both climates. Enjoy the next decade waiting for a 7 inch snowstorm troll. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Central Tim is only here to spend his Saturday night looking for reactions. Block, simple as that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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