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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

FWIW, the GEFS has the AO nearing neutral at the end of the storm (~0z Jan 31st). That at least can't hurt, but yeah there is definitely a ceiling given the pattern.

Thanks. Neutral AO is certainly better than ++AO. PNA and AO are the 2 indices best correlated to DCA snowstorms. Having one or the either in a great position is a major help, especially if the other isn’t explicitly hostile.

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

So does the Tuesday event according to the HRRR. Why cant we get a god damn clipper to track south of us in the Mid Atlantic anymore? They are like a frikin unicorn now.

I was just thinking this the other day. Clippers typically are moisture starved once they cross the mountains, but can give a simple way to eek out a few inches or more. No mixing or temperature issues involved. 

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

So does the Tuesday event according to the HRRR. Why cant we get a god damn clipper to track south of us in the Mid Atlantic anymore? They are like a frikin unicorn now.

I was wondering the same earlier today, it seems like it has been years since a formidable clipper tracked south of the Mason-Dixon line.

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What do you make of the separation between the TPV in Quebec and the sw in the SE US? More evident with the new run just wondering what implications might be either way.

probably less confluence over SE Canada, which may allow for a bit more weakness in the heights, opening up an inland runner possibility. however, I think a suppressed solution due to a late phase / sheared energy is a much more likely way to fail here

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9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

probably less confluence over SE Canada, which may allow for a bit more weakness in the heights, opening up an inland runner possibility. however, I think a suppressed solution due to a late phase / sheared energy is a much more likely way to fail here

Gotta wonder if a little less confluence would be a net positive here given some of the other more suppressed/late phase solutions...

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2 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said:

"01/03/22 .7 Big storm for the east fringes us to the NW. Fredericksburg gets 15 inches. I get less than in inch. "

 

Shot water out of my nose reading this one. Just visualizing you outside measuring 0.7" of snow and then looking out to the SE muttering expletives towards Fredericksburg while your neighbors question your sanity from the safety of their curtains. 

Just too silly. Let's get back on track brother we celebrate each other's victories in here. Not sure how they roll at your place/sub-forum.

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1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said:

"01/03/22 .7 Big storm for the east fringes us to the NW. Fredericksburg gets 15 inches. I get less than in inch. "

 

Shot water out of my nose reading this one. Just visualizing you outside measuring 0.7" of snow and then looking out to the SE muttering expletives towards Fredericksburg while your neighbors question your sanity from the safety of their curtains. 

Funny. I dont even think about you or your area while the flakes pour here. Because I know you live in the tropics compared to my area. I have a place at the beach. And I have a place in the mountains so I can experience both climates. Enjoy the next decade waiting for a 7 inch snowstorm troll.  

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