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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

This for sure. Give me simple over complicated every time. 

Overrunning events are much less nerve racking but when the complicated big ones come together and we're certain that we are getting crushed it's such a great feeling of excitment.

2016, 2010,2003 1996 . Hard to compare to anything else. I guess that's what makes them so rare

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It snowed at TLH in the formative stages of the Blizzard of 1899 so that Florida snow is not a bad sign. The only other snow I can recall in FL was in Jan 1977 during an epic cold spell. 

That being said, I could see this evolution changing run to run for quite some time, none of these moving parts look set, but there is plenty of cold air available and a recent history of deep upper lows tracking through the southeast, so given peak climo and the land-ocean gradient likely to exist, why not this sort of result? 

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2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

It snowed at TLH in the formative stages of the Blizzard of 1899 so that Florida snow is not a bad sign. The only other snow I can recall in FL was in Jan 1977 during an epic cold spell. 

That being said, I could see this evolution changing run to run for quite some time, none of these moving parts look set, but there is plenty of cold air available and a recent history of deep upper lows tracking through the southeast, so given peak climo and the land-ocean gradient likely to exist, why not this sort of result? 

Well said brother it's a counter-intuitive relationship but we have established for a long time that warmer oceans lead to colder and snowier coastlines if certain conditions are met.

I don't consider Cape May a land area though. We are more or less in the ocean which is why I am expecting rain here.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Ding ding ding

NAO isn’t as critical. (Virtually) No way DC is getting 18” with a +AO. But that PNA is basically ideal, so a better than normal event is possible on that basis alone. 

FWIW, the GEFS has the AO nearing neutral at the end of the storm (~0z Jan 31st). That at least can't hurt, but yeah there is definitely a ceiling given the pattern.

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