nj2va Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 They need to update the HRRR to run out to 120 every hour. Imagine the mood swings in here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: This for sure. Give me simple over complicated every time. Overrunning events are much less nerve racking but when the complicated big ones come together and we're certain that we are getting crushed it's such a great feeling of excitment. 2016, 2010,2003 1996 . Hard to compare to anything else. I guess that's what makes them so rare 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: They need to update the HRRR to run out to 120 every hour. Imagine the mood swings in here? Best part would be as soon as it ends a new one begins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: When Pensacola is snowing I am pretty sure everyone else is raining. That is kind of part of the deal. The heat don't go away boys it just goes somewhere else. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: In other words the blocking creates an opposite reaction downstream in the atmosphere. I know this is not my storm but you have many reasons to keep tracking it. Good luck @clskinsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: They need to update the HRRR to run out to 120 every hour. Imagine the mood swings in here? I think @high riskhas said what’s going to happen eventually is the new mesoscale model that will replace the NAM will be run hourly. Going to be fun! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I think @high riskhas said what’s going to happen eventually is the new mesoscale model that will replace the NAM will be run hourly. Going to be fun! Imagine a HUGE storm developing! You'd have to track the nam once every hour! The suspense! The exhaustion over days and days! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Top end goal: a foot. Realistic goal: 4-8. Disappointing goal, 1-3 but will gladly take. I am pulling for DC to get demolished by two feet of pow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It snowed at TLH in the formative stages of the Blizzard of 1899 so that Florida snow is not a bad sign. The only other snow I can recall in FL was in Jan 1977 during an epic cold spell. That being said, I could see this evolution changing run to run for quite some time, none of these moving parts look set, but there is plenty of cold air available and a recent history of deep upper lows tracking through the southeast, so given peak climo and the land-ocean gradient likely to exist, why not this sort of result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: It snowed at TLH in the formative stages of the Blizzard of 1899 so that Florida snow is not a bad sign. The only other snow I can recall in FL was in Jan 1977 during an epic cold spell. That being said, I could see this evolution changing run to run for quite some time, none of these moving parts look set, but there is plenty of cold air available and a recent history of deep upper lows tracking through the southeast, so given peak climo and the land-ocean gradient likely to exist, why not this sort of result? Well said brother it's a counter-intuitive relationship but we have established for a long time that warmer oceans lead to colder and snowier coastlines if certain conditions are met. I don't consider Cape May a land area though. We are more or less in the ocean which is why I am expecting rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 So 18z EPS at 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: Blizzard watches would go up. We’d be in silly mode. I get my toy back on Thursday, just in time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: So 18z EPS at 144? What about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think @high riskhas said what’s going to happen eventually is the new mesoscale model that will replace the NAM will be run hourly. Going to be fun! No way. Really? Weenie suicides on the hour. Holy crap. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I just got back from Church praying for snow….what is happening??!!!! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Lol, I lost track of time with dinner and kids bedtime routine. Check the 18z GFS, come straight here and am not disappointed by the conversation. Cheers everyone! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Now I see, I’m fringed, next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 hours ago, SnowDreamer said: Does such a quick deepening storm have any effect on its movement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 GEFS are all east of the OP. Some of them give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: I just got back from Church praying for snow….what is happening??!!!! Wait were you really? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wait were you really? Lol Church and dinner, I get in trouble when I try to use my phone at the dinner table…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Highest odds is probably for a rainstorm. Go chase something Charles and when you catch it, shove it. Geez… kick squirrels too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 GEFS is more amped than 12z 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I just got back from Church praying for snow….what is happening??!!!! Jesus doesn’t love you William. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Ding ding ding NAO isn’t as critical. (Virtually) No way DC is getting 18” with a +AO. But that PNA is basically ideal, so a better than normal event is possible on that basis alone. FWIW, the GEFS has the AO nearing neutral at the end of the storm (~0z Jan 31st). That at least can't hurt, but yeah there is definitely a ceiling given the pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 WB 18Z Euro Control compared to 12Z at 6 days stronger and closer to the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 32 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I just got back from Church praying for snow….what is happening??!!!! The Euro doesn’t answer prayers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps 120 144 Isn’t that just about the ideal position of the ridge over the Rockies for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Isn’t that just about the ideal position of the ridge over the Rockies for us? The placement of the ridge at 144 is yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 EPS is much improved out west. less of a kicker, which leads to a deeper, farther W trough as a result 12 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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