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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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4 hours ago, Ji said:
4 hours ago, Weather Will said:
In summary, only the GFS and Ukie give us some hope for the Saturday storm at 12Z.  EURO has a storm in its fantasy range which this year is anything beyond 48 hours, at Day 9.  Not feeling warm and fuzzy but better than last year by far.

No last year was way better

Only for fat north and west.  I’m probably less than 30 miles from you and had an awful winter. Better than 2020, but that was the worst winter EVER. 

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6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Have we ever had a snowstorm of anywhere near that significance with a positive AO and NAO? This seems like just dreaming given that neither of those is negative.

Ding ding ding

NAO isn’t as critical. (Virtually) No way DC is getting 18” with a +AO. But that PNA is basically ideal, so a better than normal event is possible on that basis alone. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Ding ding ding

NAO isn’t as critical. (Virtually) No way DC is getting 18” with a +AO. But that PNA is basically ideal, so a better than normal event is possible on that basis alone. 

Top end goal: a foot.  Realistic goal: 4-8.  Disappointing goal, 1-3 but will gladly take. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Top end goal: a foot.  Realistic goal: 4-8.  Disappointing goal, 1-3 but will gladly take. 

This is a huge wag, but I think 8”+ could be possible given how perfect that PNA ridge placement seems to be. But as you know, the lack of Atlantic side help makes the window very very small. I like overrunning events so much more because there’s much more wiggle room. 

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is a huge wag, but I think 8”+ could be possible given how perfect that PNA ridge placement seems to be. But as you know, the lack of Atlantic side help makes the window very very small. I like overrunning events so much more because there’s much more wiggle room. 

This for sure. Give me simple over complicated every time. 

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