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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, CAPE said:
1643457600-FgqiRTCTr0c.png
 

Lol worse than 12z but in this range i trust op more

How well have the ops done during this window so far? The means have consistently advertised damped/flattened waves moving east and developed low pressure offshore. Remember yesterday?

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28 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Man, when the dopamine wears off at 0z, it's gonna be brutal for some in here.

giphy.webp?cid=82a1493bs6wba5ucr2x10tbof

23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The despair, teeth gnashing, annoying Ji posts, and “welp, it was fun while it lasted” over the next 7 days will make this place feel like an insane asylum

Did you just join the board? :lol: 

  • Haha 15
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How well have the ops done during this window so far? The means have consistently advertised damped/flattened waves moving east and developed low pressure offshore. Remember yesterday?
Yea but the op gfs led the way with that too...never bought into silly euro 12-16 solutions
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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now, maybe I'm oversimplifying this, but...it seems like as long as an amped southern wave stays on the table, we oughta have a decent shot, right?

We definitely have a chance. There is a huge southern stream storm on all of the models at this point. Someone is going to get wrecked. But we have no clue who yet. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

We definitely have a chance. There is a huge southern stream storm on all of the models at this point. Someone is going to get wrecked. But we have no clue who yet. 

Oh yeah, we have a signal. B)

We are entering the 'inside day 7' window now, so we will get a better idea. The advertised high amplitude pattern gives us a better chance in a progressive flow regime.

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

We definitely have a chance. There is a huge southern stream storm on all of the models at this point. Someone is going to get wrecked. But we have no clue who yet. 

And here's the thing: To my novice eyes this doesn't look like something that just slides south OTS (though it may be too early to dismiss it completely)...on all the model runs so far, everything wants to turn north at some point. So the question to be determined is...where? Lol

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It is an awesome piece! I had the pleasure of playing the first movement for my senior degree recital--never quite learned to my satisfaction, but it was awesome playing it nonetheless! (In fact I was just sightreading the beautiful second movement the other day! It is so soothing--reminds me of the family waiting back home for the soldier to return).

Interestingly enough, Beethoven himself didn't get a chance to perform this himself because his deafness had progressed too much--I think one of his pupils debuted it instead!

The transition from the second to the third movement is so breathtaking, and yet so subtle, I tear up at times.

And that’s incredible that you can play it!

And,oh yeah, the latest GFS….

 

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