stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 39 minutes ago, mattie g said: I’m going to be honest here… I know you’re a young chap, but your posts have gotten a lot worse in the last few weeks. Take that for whatever it’s worth. Maury Povich: and this man did NOT lie. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 29 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Nothing gets me in the mood for a deep snowy night more than this Will always be a staple of the repetoire...Nothing like that first movement had ever been written to that point. So hauntingly ethereal...romantic yet still classical. And then you get to the third movement and it's like a storm, lol (ah that movement still bedevils me--but dang it I'll master it one of these days!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 @HighStakes pointed out this morning the long range guidance does not look bad for early Feb. this is the kind of temp profile we want to get a gradient pattern to work. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Did not realize how many people here dislike my posts, sorry about that will try to do better in the future. 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @HighStakes pointed out this morning the long range guidance does not look bad for early Feb. this is the kind of temp profile we want to get a gradient pattern to work. Could you clarify as bit what a "gradient pattern " is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Total BS. We had had one storm at this point last year. One Ask psu what winter was better. Ask Winchester people I saw over 40” of snow last year, as did a lot of the corridor between Manchester, Thurmont, and Winchester. However, more of the forum is at climo this year than last year. Depends on who you ask, of course. We saw a much more active January this winter than last. So far, it’s been a more exciting winter than last for the area. PSU has simply been unlucky so far. I have little doubt that PSU will still see more snow than dc or Baltimore this winter and will likely surpass climo by winters end. Once February and march roll around, that’s when it’s our latitudes turn to shine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm not sure I can endorse that portrayal...lol What, you don't think Belushi pulled it off?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Could you clarify as bit what a "gradient pattern " is? A mostly zonal pattern across the CONUS with cold air north of the boundary and warm air south. It’s a classic pattern for overrunning events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Could you clarify as bit what a "gradient pattern " is? It’s a more progressive pattern. Instead of large ridges out west and troughs out east, you see the boundary / northern jet push south and storms track along it underneath us, keeping us on the cold side of storms. Overrunning events pan out best in these types of patterns. It’s never fun to be south of that boundary. You tend to see the northern tier of the country cold from coast to coast, with warmer air in the south instead of seeing the west warm as the east is cold. It’s not a great pattern, but they can still pan out nicely when things line up just right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: I saw over 40” of snow last year, as did a lot of the corridor between Manchester, Thurmont, and Winchester. However, more of the forum is at climo this year than last year. Depends on who you ask, of course. We saw a much more active January this winter than last. So far, it’s been a more exciting winter than last for the area. PSU has simply been unlucky so far. I have little doubt that PSU will still see more snow than dc or Baltimore this winter and will likely surpass climo by winters end. Once February and march roll around, that’s when it’s our latitudes turn to shine. I think PSU described it best about last winter. He mentioned something that it was very unusual that his area and around there did quite well but the metro areas were so far, far worse off. In a more normal year, even with some of the marginal setups, the cities would not have done so poorly for the season (single digit amount) when he got the amount he did, from what he said. I know there are many factors, climate and also the air mass was just plain sucky for so long after all the Pac puke in December and part of January. The biggest event I got last year where I'm at was 5" from that prolonged Jan. 31-Feb. 2 event. There was the event in February that looked like it was going to be decent, or at least an interesting sleet bomb. Ended up a few hours of sleet here that covered the ground (less than an inch) and it was over before you could blink. I ended up with a single digit total despite doing a little better than DCA, most of that from the Jan/Feb event I just mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: A mostly zonal pattern across the CONUS with cold air north of the boundary and warm air south. It’s a classic pattern for overrunning events. Yup. If we can keep some highs pressing down with us on the cold side of the boundary, we can actually do quite well in that situation. Wasn't the PD-II storm essentially a massive overrunning event, with a huge cold high anchored in? It wasn't a big wound up storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Nice hit on the Euro. 8-12" across the forum probably gonna be more but cuts off...but..Day 10. Sigh Yup... but @ORH_wxman called it a KU look... so lock it in now folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Welcome to the 18z Hunger Games! Icon looks better vs 12z at H5...still looks too broad tho..hard to tell since it stops at 120 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Welcome to the 18z Hunger Games! Icon looks better vs 12z at H5...still looks too broad tho..hard to tell since it stops at 120 What do we have to do to sharpen it? Asking the weenie Gods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: What do we have to do to sharpen it? Asking the weenie Gods Psu is the John Madden of pointing out what has or hasn't have to happen. That's his wheelhouse. I'll let him handle that. 1 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Psu is the John Madden of pointing out what has or hasn't have to happen. That's his wheelhouse. I'll let him handle that. PSU is the Susan Collins of weather he's always concerned 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: PSU is the Susan Collins of weather he's always concerned Deeply troubled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Got my beer and ready for happy hour!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Got my beer and ready for happy hour! . Pretty bold of you to use your one allotted daily post on that. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 No major changes so far...lower vort that gets crushed on the 12z hanging back just a smidgeon. Still probably gonna get a beatdown, but its not the main show. Northern vort entering the picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 What are you all sipping for hh? Old fashioned for me! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Lets see what HH GFS does. Watch the interaction between the shortwave energy riding over the top of the ridge and the vort lobes shedding off the TPV, as well as the western US ridge axis/ amplitude. The 6z run gave a nice path to victory, and 12z wasn't too far off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Blanton's for me 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 GFS is pressing more to my drunk ass eyes. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Football, beer, and HH GooFuS. Good times…hopefully! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: All Beethoven fans get ban immunity for life. Chopin > Beethoven 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, snowfan said: Chopin > Beethoven It was nice knowing you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Chopin > Beethoven 1. Rachmaninoff 2. Ludwig v B 3. Wolfe and the NS seems to be on a dig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 26 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: What do we have to do to sharpen it? Asking the weenie Gods Main thing would be better wave spacing. 12z Gfs would have been a hit except for bad wave spacing. A stronger NS or STJ wave would help with ridging in front which becomes a feedback loop. Having the next vort dive in and phase v acting as a kicker would did it too. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Comparing 12 v 18z gfs runs is tricky because there seems to be a timing difference. 18z is slower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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