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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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29 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Nothing gets me in the mood for a deep snowy night more than this

 

Will always be a staple of the repetoire...Nothing like that first movement had ever been written to that point. So hauntingly ethereal...romantic yet still classical. And then you get to the third movement and it's like a storm, lol (ah that movement still bedevils me--but dang it I'll master it one of these days!)

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
Total BS. We had had one storm at this point last year. One

Ask psu what winter was better. Ask Winchester people

I saw over 40” of snow last year, as did a lot of the corridor between Manchester, Thurmont, and Winchester. However, more of the forum is at climo this year than last year. Depends on who you ask, of course. We saw a much more active January this winter than last. So far, it’s been a more exciting winter than last for the area. PSU has simply been unlucky so far.   

I have little doubt that PSU will still see more snow than dc or Baltimore this winter and will likely surpass climo by winters end. Once February and march roll around, that’s when it’s our latitudes turn to shine. 

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11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Could you clarify as bit what a "gradient pattern " is?

It’s a more progressive pattern. Instead of large ridges out west and troughs  out east, you see the boundary / northern jet push south and storms track along it underneath us, keeping us on the cold side of storms. Overrunning events pan out best in these types of patterns. It’s never fun to be south of that boundary. 
 

You tend to see the northern tier of the country cold from coast to coast, with warmer air in the south instead of seeing the west warm as the east is cold. It’s not a great pattern, but they can still pan out nicely when things line up just right. 

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I saw over 40” of snow last year, as did a lot of the corridor between Manchester, Thurmont, and Winchester. However, more of the forum is at climo this year than last year. Depends on who you ask, of course. We saw a much more active January this winter than last. So far, it’s been a more exciting winter than last for the area. PSU has simply been unlucky so far.   

I have little doubt that PSU will still see more snow than dc or Baltimore this winter and will likely surpass climo by winters end. Once February and march roll around, that’s when it’s our latitudes turn to shine. 

I think PSU described it best about last winter.  He mentioned something that it was very unusual that his area and around there did quite well but the metro areas were so far, far worse off.  In a more normal year, even with some of the marginal setups, the cities would not have done so poorly for the season (single digit amount) when he got the amount he did, from what he said.  I know there are many factors, climate and also the air mass was just plain sucky for so long after all the Pac puke in December and part of January.  The biggest event I got last year where I'm at was 5" from that prolonged Jan. 31-Feb. 2 event.  There was the event in February that looked like it was going to be decent, or at least an interesting sleet bomb.  Ended up a few hours of sleet here that covered the ground (less than an inch) and it was over before you could blink.  I ended up with a single digit total despite doing a little better than DCA, most of that from the Jan/Feb event I just mentioned.

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A mostly zonal pattern across the CONUS with cold air north of the boundary and warm air south. It’s a classic pattern for overrunning events. 

Yup.  If we can keep some highs pressing down with us on the cold side of the boundary, we can actually do quite well in that situation.  Wasn't the PD-II storm essentially a massive overrunning event, with a huge cold high anchored in?  It wasn't a big wound up storm.

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Lets see what HH GFS does. Watch the interaction between the shortwave energy riding over the top of the ridge and the vort lobes shedding off the TPV, as well as the western US ridge axis/ amplitude. The 6z run gave a nice path to victory, and 12z wasn't too far off. 

 

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26 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

What do we have to do to sharpen it? Asking the weenie Gods 

Main thing would be better wave spacing. 12z Gfs would have been a hit except for bad wave spacing.  A stronger NS or STJ wave would help with ridging in front which becomes a feedback loop. Having the next vort dive in and phase v acting as a kicker would did it too. 

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