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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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In summary, only the GFS and Ukie give us some hope for the Saturday storm at 12Z.  EURO has a storm in its fantasy range which this year is anything beyond 48 hours, at Day 9.  Not feeling warm and fuzzy but better than last year by far.
No last year was way better
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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I got a feeling that we are going to be doing the storm after the storm dance pretty soon.  Pushing every threat back.  We'll see.  Onward and upwards troops.  18z!

Honestly I think it’s the weekend storm that we will be tracking. But I think it’s gonna take its sweet time getting lined up. That energy out west will hang there long enough to be able to amplify when it comes out. Maybe get a little ns vort come along and phase with it.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
In summary, only the GFS and Ukie give us some hope for the Saturday storm at 12Z.  EURO has a storm in its fantasy range which this year is anything beyond 48 hours, at Day 9.  Not feeling warm and fuzzy but better than last year by far.

No last year was way better

Total BS. We had had one storm at this point last year. One

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
Lol where do you think I live? Just keep making up shit to fit your cry baby narrative.

Lol you had 8 inches of snow on the ground between dec 15 and dec 24th. There is no way your doing better this winter than last

Wrong again sport. Your move.

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3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I was right..it's a miss east, but so much better than 6z

Up at Sugarbush so multiple comments in one post. Randy, you’re right gfs was way closer to the type of synoptic setup that can work here.   Details don’t matter but we want more guidance to move to keying on the stj wave as the main player.

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

If that trough can go negative, GFS says we might be tracking the wrong storm.  But blah, can't worry about a fantasy land potential.

It’s symbiotic. I identified this period because it was when the ridge/trough alignment would likely be right for something to amplify along the coast before it retrogrades too much. Thing is the wave break from the first wave creates a window behind it for another. This isn’t an unusual thing. It’s temporary. Eventually the trough will retro too much and at that point we want boundary waves not amplifying phased storms. That can work too just a different pattern.  But I think assuming the first wave does amplify, even if it’s too late for us, it will create the opportunity for the next wave before that pattern door closes. 

13 minutes ago, Ji said:
17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
Total BS. We had had one storm at this point last year. One

Ask psu what winter was better. Ask Winchester people

I’m on a ridge at almost 1100 feet. And that’s different from being in a valley or a plateau at 1000 feet because I get upslope flow which cools me even more. So I’ll take a marginal temp blocked pattern every day and twice on Sunday. March 2013 wasn’t a fail up here as another example. In the urban corridor temps are always a concern. They really need BOTH to get an epic winter usually so you’re debating different poisons here. But this year with the cold probably gives DC a greater chance at simply getting snow from any given storm. Blocking only helps if it’s cold. 

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Just now, 09-10 analogy said:

My fav, even over all the symphonies!

It is an awesome piece! I had the pleasure of playing the first movement for my senior degree recital--never quite learned to my satisfaction, but it was awesome playing it nonetheless! (In fact I was just sightreading the beautiful second movement the other day! It is so soothing--reminds me of the family waiting back home for the soldier to return).

Interestingly enough, Beethoven himself didn't get a chance to perform this himself because his deafness had progressed too much--I think one of his pupils debuted it instead!

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