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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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For the mets here...how dependent are we on mountain ranges for coastal storms? I once joked if the Appalachians were gone we'd get lots of clippers vs the rain/sleet line that often catches this latitude. I'm kind of wading through these observations trying to connect the dots with the airmass patterns. And DC is smack in the middle of the east coast.

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15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Still on the table. That’s my takeaway from this run. I think by Monday we are tracking our biggest storm of the season.

I think we're all getting confident that there's going to be a storm,,just the how and to what extend are the questions.  I take this run as a positive.  We know we'll get a. new version in 6 hours.  We go on until we get a relatively stable few runs one way or the other.

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58 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

I seem to recall a few times that (at least out here on the Piedmont) we've done very well with Miller B's

You being on the other side of the Blue ridge maybe. For us out here they are pretty much a proven dry slot screw job. And the models seem to be locking into a trough alignment next weekend that wont work for us either. Could be another SE win. Its a Norfolk winter. Happens from time to time. 

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Potential is there; concerns me that we’ve struck out twice now in this pattern. Models are loving last minute changes and timing “has to be perfect”. No blocking etc. Would actually welcome a pattern change come Feb if ground is still bare. By then it would be clear that This one wouldn’t have worked for us. Unless you like high heating bills. But willing to give it time. 

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