Weather Will Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Again, a souther storm unlike a Miller B to New England or a Great Lakes cutter is worth tracking over the next week. Just one run much different from last run so we have not settled on a solution yet… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: You can definitely see the southern wave is farther southwest from 00 to 06 to 12Z. And that energetic shortwave over New England from 06Z disappears. It does look more positively tilted, but I can see why it's potentially better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 If that trough can go negative, GFS says we might be tracking the wrong storm. But blah, can't worry about a fantasy land potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anyway, going to take this run with a huge +. Vastly improved. Improved in the synoptics, yes. Just hope the surface bears a little more fruit in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 The storm after the storm is another close miss. where the hell did that come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: The storm after the storm is another close miss. where the hell did that come from. That was there yesterday on the 12z run that crushed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: The 12z GFS is 12-18 hours slower than the 06z, which messes up your overlay and gives a false impression. The 12z GFS was not a clear cut improvement IMO. Some aspects were better, others worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Of course Storm II: Electric Bugaloo comes together in time for New England 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 For the mets here...how dependent are we on mountain ranges for coastal storms? I once joked if the Appalachians were gone we'd get lots of clippers vs the rain/sleet line that often catches this latitude. I'm kind of wading through these observations trying to connect the dots with the airmass patterns. And DC is smack in the middle of the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Still on the table. That’s my takeaway from this run. I think by Monday we are tracking our biggest storm of the season. I think we're all getting confident that there's going to be a storm,,just the how and to what extend are the questions. I take this run as a positive. We know we'll get a. new version in 6 hours. We go on until we get a relatively stable few runs one way or the other. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs kind of hinting at the trailing sw to the Tuesday stj sw to maby impact us . Some members with snow Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 This is getting repetitively frustrating! BUT, a storm came up this way from NC before.. so we still have hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 solutions so far today that are very different. But each one gets us no snow lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 If it is a miss here; Id prefer a NE hit over a southern slider. I’d rather chase to an area that can give me snow on snow; like upstate NY vs NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: This is getting repetitively frustrating! BUT, a storm came up this way from NC before.. so we still have hope I'm sticking to my bar of just having a southern wage right now...if we can maintain that over the next few runs I like those chances much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I'm sticking to my bar of just having a southern wage right now...if we can maintain that over the next few runs I like those chances much better. BLUF….in the game, all we can ask for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 WB 12Z GEFS…. 12Z v 6Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: BLUF….in the game, all we can ask for BLUF? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 I hope the next few weeks don't turn out to be like the pattern in March 2018 when New England had 3 blockbuster events and here in the Mid Atlantic we got zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: BLUF? Lol Bottom line up front…Some folks like two fs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Do not look at the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 58 minutes ago, mattskiva said: I seem to recall a few times that (at least out here on the Piedmont) we've done very well with Miller B's You being on the other side of the Blue ridge maybe. For us out here they are pretty much a proven dry slot screw job. And the models seem to be locking into a trough alignment next weekend that wont work for us either. Could be another SE win. Its a Norfolk winter. Happens from time to time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowfan96 said: I hope the next few weeks don't turn out to be like the pattern in March 2018 when New England had 3 blockbuster events and here in the Mid Atlantic we got zilch. I seem to remember getting 6 inches that March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Hampton Roads got 5-8 inches last night. That’s more than I have gotten in single storm so far. I am holding out hope though as winter is young and I have snowpack in the ground with below freezing temps atm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Do not look at the CMC Its garbage for everyone, even SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Do not look at the CMC Honestly the King GFS has been so good in the long range it’s the only model I’ve been paying attention to for storms 3 or more days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Potential is there; concerns me that we’ve struck out twice now in this pattern. Models are loving last minute changes and timing “has to be perfect”. No blocking etc. Would actually welcome a pattern change come Feb if ground is still bare. By then it would be clear that This one wouldn’t have worked for us. Unless you like high heating bills. But willing to give it time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Canadian keeps the Miller B scenario and hits Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Why do we keep the CMC in the same realm as the GFS and Euro? Does it score well in Canada? Because I feel like it never leads the way in the States Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 I don’t like the UKIE but this would be close/good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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