yoda Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 24 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Yes! Right now, it seems one of these two outcomes is most plausible: The track stays far enough east with little to no impact, or it phases but then tracks inland as a cutter (much like last weekend) - which could still bring some wintry precip but nothing too significant. Maybe so... but the ridge out west was in good placement... alot of our big storms happen when the placement of the ridge is out there through Utah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Maybe so... but the ridge out west was in good placement... alot of our big storms happen when the placement of the ridge is out there through Utah The ridge axis looked pretty darn to good to Me on the 6z eps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Right, but where the hell is all the blocking that was predicted this winter? That was supposed to be about the only thing in our favor this winter. Lately after say 2009 and 2010 blocking during the winter months from what I can remember has not really materialized. However, I feel like we have seen more blocking during the later spring, summer, and early fall months during our warmer times. Without decent blocking I am not super excited for the rest of January, but still holding out hope for a coastal runner at months end as the ridge axis out west looks great at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 19 minutes ago, 87storms said: Yea I don’t think it’s a cutter pattern with the ridging out west, but if there’s enough blocking then maybe it’ll go negative quick enough. I almost like the midweek potential more though maybe bc it’s sooner lol. Interesting you mention the midweek potential. I just took a cursory look at the 12z icon (i know!), and it has MD on the northern fringe of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Maybe so... but the ridge out west was in good placement... alot of our big storms happen when the placement of the ridge is out there through Utah Good point…let’s hope it holds in that placement - Utah up into Idaho is one of the best possible locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I thought the exact same when I saw it. No thanks. Why is it so hard to get a storm running into Tennessee and then redeveloping off Myrtle? 16 minutes ago, Ji said: 17 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I thought the exact same when I saw it. No thanks. Why is it so hard to get a storm running into Tennessee and then redeveloping off Myrtle? Cause we don't have blocking for that kind of track Bingo. A lot of our big blocking snows actually happened with a ridge/trough alignment that wouldn’t have worked without blocking. That west of the apps then forced east thing only works with blocking. Otherwise it would continue to cut up west! Blocking gives us a huge range of tracks that work because anything that tries to cut gets forced to turn east and we’re at the right latitude to be under the frozen precip often when that happens. Any storm that tries to amplify north between the coast and Mississippi can work. We’ve even had snow with a primary to Chicago with blocking! But without it we need to thread the needle. We need the storm to amplify and turn north along the southeast coast. Any further west and it cuts. East and it’s a fish or Boston storm. We have a much narrower win window without blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 All of our big winter storms (2010, 2016, etc)are Miller A, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Lately after say 2009 and 2010 blocking during the winter months from what I can remember has not really materialized. However, I feel like we have seen more blocking during the later spring, summer, and early fall months during our warmer times. Without decent blocking I am not super excited for the rest of January, but still holding out hope for a coastal runner at months end as the ridge axis out west looks great at times. We don’t need blocking for snow. We need blocking for big snow, but if we have cold air and some semblance of a southern stream, we can get light to moderate events coming at us from the southwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 I don't recall, did we have significant blocking for the Monday storm a few weeks ago? I got over a foot of snow with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Looks like the 12z ICON is going to keep the weekend system offshore again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 I remember that we had a brief -NAO in 2016 just in time for our Blizzard. My Facebook memories came up today when I was looking forward to the storm coming. I said that we were getting about 30” of snow, which is exactly what I ended up measuring at my house. Apparently the models were on target back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Interesting you mention the midweek potential. I just took a cursory look at the 12z icon (i know!), and it has MD on the northern fringe of the precip I’ve just been peeking around but any southern wave gets my attention when there’s a 1030+ high nosing down from Canada. Looks like that wave washes out the last couple runs bc of a lead vort to the north but we don’t know yet where the current coastal ends up which I’m assuming will dictate things upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Little bit of a change on last night's 0z euro ensemble teleconnections. AO is now showing a going negative right around the very beginning of February. EPO stays solidly negative as does WPO. PNA still showing negative however not quite as bad as a few days ago and certainly not anywhere near December levels. If this holds then February should yield plenty chances. Just need to be lucky as usual and get on the right side of the boundary. Could see some ice as well. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 45 minutes ago, 87storms said: Yea I don’t think it’s a cutter pattern with the ridging out west, but if there’s enough blocking then maybe it’ll go negative quick enough. I almost like the midweek potential more though maybe bc it’s sooner lol. Yeah it seems to me that instead of turning into a cutter it would be an outright hit...right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Ive had enough of this winter 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Ive had enough of this winter Stop looking at the 84 hour NAM. Your attitude might improve 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 23 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: All of our big winter storms (2010, 2016, etc)are Miller A, correct? I seem to recall a few times that (at least out here on the Piedmont) we've done very well with Miller B's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 I’m excited about Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, mattskiva said: I seem to recall a few times that (at least out here on the Piedmont) we've done very well with Miller B's I don’t see how storms like 2003, 2010 are classified Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah it seems to me that instead of turning into a cutter it would be an outright hit...right? Lol I vote yay on that lol. The inland runner we had was a 500 low too far west, but that’s not showing up with these next systems at least so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m excited about Tuesday. That clipper is messing things up right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 GFS backing the western ridge off a good bit by 108. Wonder what the implications will be down the line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 All of the energy on the field at H5 looks more diggy so far out to 108 on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 This might produce a cutter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 12z gfs should be better than the bad 6z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS backing the western ridge off a good bit by 108. Wonder what the implications will be down the line It's a mess. SW energy left behind...trough broad...this run looks like shit so far 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 12z gfs should be better than the bad 6z run Don't think so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This might produce a cutter lol Would much rather it show that and we can work from there, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 Interesting so far. Kinda excited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 I hope I'm wrong this time. I'd gladly take the L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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