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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'm not, my mistake in wording in my post if you are thinking that.  I was more trying to say that the storms that do show up aren't big ones.  I would take 2-4 anyday

 

There were really only 3 big hits. But they were slower. One of the 3 a full 2 days slower. I think that one was the “get the first wave out of the way and go with the next” idea. 

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30 minutes ago, Ji said:
36 minutes ago, yoda said:
Shows nothing for us at all

This is why you dont want the op to show a huge storm 8 days out. No where to go but down....down deep into the black pit of digital snow loss

An op run showing a big snowstorm 8 days out is irrelevant as to whether or not it happens. You’re talking as if these are curses - like opening a storm thread.

We’ve seen plenty of storms over the years get modeled 8-10 days out and come to fruition. Exactly as depicted? Of course not. We’ve seen storms get sniffed out early, lost, only to come back again. We have seen storms get sniffed out early and remain on models throughout. Pretty sure one of those dropped like 3 feet of snow in your house in Jan of 2016? We’ve also seen storms materialize in under 48 hours before. 
 

You can’t live and die by each run. You know that. Big differences between 12z to 0z when you’re 7+ days away is absolutely meaningless.  

 

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5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

An op run showing a big snowstorm 8 days out is irrelevant as to whether or not it happens. You’re talking as if these are curses - like opening a storm thread.

We’ve seen plenty of storms over the years get modeled 8-10 days out and come to fruition. Exactly as depicted? Of course not. We’ve seen storms get sniffed out early, lost, only to come back again. We have seen storms get sniffed out early and remain on models throughout. Pretty sure one of those dropped like 3 feet of snow in your house in Jan of 2016? We’ve also seen storms materialize in under 48 hours before. 
 

You can’t live and die by each run. You know that. Big differences between 12z to 0z when you’re 7+ days away is absolutely meaningless.  

 

My comment of nothing at all was to Ralph in stating that the mean showed nothing even when that was a really good image.  Even when psu posted his image, the GEFS was unimpressed.  I saw what happened with the last storm, i.e. the EURO leading us on for a few days before it went to nothing.  I am not expecting anything and am as of now just taking cursory glances and posts

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50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji I got 50” last winter. I certainly have no right to complain. And while I’m not doing well so far…considering February and March are my 1st and 2nd snowiest months…I will likely still creep closer to climo yet. And if we do enter a gradient pattern that can be a lot better up here. As for your exact location…you barely missed the big totals Jan 3. That sucks. But for a Nina you’re still ahead of typical pace.  We are due for a MECS or HECS level storm but that’s likely going to have to wait until next year if we get a modoki Nino!  

I kinda feel his angst thid time--I barely missed bigger totals on Jan 3rd as well...but also am ahead of a typical nina pace for January. But ya know, heading into this winter I had practically assumed any MECS/HECS "we're due" wouldn't come until NEXT winter. However, now that we COULD have a chance, if we miss this threat it's still gonna hurt, though--especially if it's because of the same timing issues we've seen. (Although that would suck more if the solution we see now inexplicably locks in, lol But I'd like to see some changes over the weekend!)

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26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Kinda looks like all of the other guidance so far...southern vort races ahead and washes out...Gonna wait a bit, but I think this isn't the run we're looking for.  broad trough..might be good for New England :(

Ack...ya wish all the other guidance wasn't showing the same problem. You'd think with usual Day 8 chaos, you'd have all different outcomes/solutions and not every model missing wide right. Now if ya play the odds, you'd think we'd have to get a bit unlucky if we see an incredible 8-day run of this solution on all three globals, lol Would like to see some different solutions modeled this weekend...(which again, you'd think we should see!)

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

My comment of nothing at all was to Ralph in stating that the mean showed nothing even when that was a really good image.  Even when psu posted his image, the GEFS was unimpressed.  I saw what happened with the last storm, i.e. the EURO leading us on for a few days before it went to nothing.  I am not expecting anything and am as of now just taking cursory glances and posts

My reply was for Ji. Not sure why it tagged your reply. 

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00z GFS was wide right but still wasn’t too far away from hitting us with some snow on the 30th. NYC / LI into SNE get ROCKED with 6-12 hours of very heavy snow .

All I really take away from these runs this far out (198 hours) is the possibility of a gulf low making the turn up the coast and bombing out (gets to sub 980) Details, such as needing a track 150 miles further west, aren’t all that important yet. The 6z run coming up could easily show a foot for us with relatively minute changes upstairs.

For me… overall trends and keeping the potential alive for seeing a gulf low bomb out somewhere along the coast is more important than exact details until we get inside 120 (D5) when models will have far more data to work with.  

78DB3AFF-C381-4AC1-A08E-FDB883CBBB66.jpeg

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Progressive flow, and lots of NS action. 0z didn't quite work out(verbatim) for much of our area. The W US ridge axis is a tad too far east(and not as amped) as advertised, which doesn't help in this regime. With absolutely no blocking, placement and timing of the key features are critical. Ofc they are hard to identify specifically and change from run to run this far out. The NS energy dropping down the east side of the ridge helped NE on the 0z GFS run. Ops are gonna be chaotic for a few more days I think. The GEFS and EPS continue with the general idea of most of the action offshore for this period.

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Mount Holly's take this morning on the late week potential-

The setup becomes fairly interesting by the end of the week, with the cold surface high retreating to our north and east downstream of a digging trough in the central U.S. This has potential to develop a surface low near or off the Southeast coast by the end of the week into the weekend, with cold air lingering in the Northeast poleward of the low. Of course, solutions by this point are widely varying, with the 00z ECMWF shifting the system well offshore (as opposed to the prior 12z ECMWF, which lifts a strong low right through the heart of the CWA next weekend). The CMC is weaker overall with the system, but farther west than the 00z ECMWF. The 00z GFS gives much of the area a healthy winter storm. Much too early to pick and choose a solution, with consensus suggesting the best chances for precipitation in our area just beyond the forecast period anyway.

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The western US ridge orientation and amplitude is about perfect this run, and just enough interaction from the energy rotating down from the TPV. Didn't have that last run. Might be gone next run, or be too much. The subtleties.

1643392800-WAEfGrjztSI.png

Doesn’t get much better than this 

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34 minutes ago, jayyy said:

We get heavy snow, Boston gets rain as the low drives through New England. Upstate NY gets rocked on the backside of a 973mb slp

46A7D150-292F-49A1-99D4-BF3275DDAC1B.jpeg

It is a touchy setup with a cold HP in place but relaxing leading in, and no block/50-50. Need some degree of amplification, but not TOO much. The interaction with NS energy is critical. Don't want the southern shortwave to dampen in the wake of a vorticity lobe, but if one drops in just behind at the wrong time we may have a repeat of last weekend.

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