psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I'm not, my mistake in wording in my post if you are thinking that. I was more trying to say that the storms that do show up aren't big ones. I would take 2-4 anyday There were really only 3 big hits. But they were slower. One of the 3 a full 2 days slower. I think that one was the “get the first wave out of the way and go with the next” idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 30 minutes ago, Ji said: 36 minutes ago, yoda said: Shows nothing for us at all This is why you dont want the op to show a huge storm 8 days out. No where to go but down....down deep into the black pit of digital snow loss An op run showing a big snowstorm 8 days out is irrelevant as to whether or not it happens. You’re talking as if these are curses - like opening a storm thread. We’ve seen plenty of storms over the years get modeled 8-10 days out and come to fruition. Exactly as depicted? Of course not. We’ve seen storms get sniffed out early, lost, only to come back again. We have seen storms get sniffed out early and remain on models throughout. Pretty sure one of those dropped like 3 feet of snow in your house in Jan of 2016? We’ve also seen storms materialize in under 48 hours before. You can’t live and die by each run. You know that. Big differences between 12z to 0z when you’re 7+ days away is absolutely meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: An op run showing a big snowstorm 8 days out is irrelevant as to whether or not it happens. You’re talking as if these are curses - like opening a storm thread. We’ve seen plenty of storms over the years get modeled 8-10 days out and come to fruition. Exactly as depicted? Of course not. We’ve seen storms get sniffed out early, lost, only to come back again. We have seen storms get sniffed out early and remain on models throughout. Pretty sure one of those dropped like 3 feet of snow in your house in Jan of 2016? We’ve also seen storms materialize in under 48 hours before. You can’t live and die by each run. You know that. Big differences between 12z to 0z when you’re 7+ days away is absolutely meaningless. My comment of nothing at all was to Ralph in stating that the mean showed nothing even when that was a really good image. Even when psu posted his image, the GEFS was unimpressed. I saw what happened with the last storm, i.e. the EURO leading us on for a few days before it went to nothing. I am not expecting anything and am as of now just taking cursory glances and posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Comparing with 12z, Euro still has the northern stream coming down. The stj wave is further west. The northern vort is about the same place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji I got 50” last winter. I certainly have no right to complain. And while I’m not doing well so far…considering February and March are my 1st and 2nd snowiest months…I will likely still creep closer to climo yet. And if we do enter a gradient pattern that can be a lot better up here. As for your exact location…you barely missed the big totals Jan 3. That sucks. But for a Nina you’re still ahead of typical pace. We are due for a MECS or HECS level storm but that’s likely going to have to wait until next year if we get a modoki Nino! I kinda feel his angst thid time--I barely missed bigger totals on Jan 3rd as well...but also am ahead of a typical nina pace for January. But ya know, heading into this winter I had practically assumed any MECS/HECS "we're due" wouldn't come until NEXT winter. However, now that we COULD have a chance, if we miss this threat it's still gonna hurt, though--especially if it's because of the same timing issues we've seen. (Although that would suck more if the solution we see now inexplicably locks in, lol But I'd like to see some changes over the weekend!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Kinda looks like all of the other guidance so far...southern vort races ahead and washes out...Gonna wait a bit, but I think this isn't the run we're looking for. broad trough..might be good for New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Ridge is a bit to far east for my liking at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Super wide right, lol. Like halfway between North Carolina and Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 It's over yoda. On to the 6z and 12z. should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Signal, blah blah blah. The Euro at least digs the base down much farther south than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 26 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Kinda looks like all of the other guidance so far...southern vort races ahead and washes out...Gonna wait a bit, but I think this isn't the run we're looking for. broad trough..might be good for New England Ack...ya wish all the other guidance wasn't showing the same problem. You'd think with usual Day 8 chaos, you'd have all different outcomes/solutions and not every model missing wide right. Now if ya play the odds, you'd think we'd have to get a bit unlucky if we see an incredible 8-day run of this solution on all three globals, lol Would like to see some different solutions modeled this weekend...(which again, you'd think we should see!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 hours ago, yoda said: My comment of nothing at all was to Ralph in stating that the mean showed nothing even when that was a really good image. Even when psu posted his image, the GEFS was unimpressed. I saw what happened with the last storm, i.e. the EURO leading us on for a few days before it went to nothing. I am not expecting anything and am as of now just taking cursory glances and posts My reply was for Ji. Not sure why it tagged your reply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 You guys are gonna get hit hard again by snow. Just keep on keepin' on with the model tracking. Winter is NOT even close to bein done with the Mid Atlantic yet. Winter is not yet done with this sub. NO WAY! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 00z GFS was wide right but still wasn’t too far away from hitting us with some snow on the 30th. NYC / LI into SNE get ROCKED with 6-12 hours of very heavy snow . All I really take away from these runs this far out (198 hours) is the possibility of a gulf low making the turn up the coast and bombing out (gets to sub 980) Details, such as needing a track 150 miles further west, aren’t all that important yet. The 6z run coming up could easily show a foot for us with relatively minute changes upstairs. For me… overall trends and keeping the potential alive for seeing a gulf low bomb out somewhere along the coast is more important than exact details until we get inside 120 (D5) when models will have far more data to work with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Progressive flow, and lots of NS action. 0z didn't quite work out(verbatim) for much of our area. The W US ridge axis is a tad too far east(and not as amped) as advertised, which doesn't help in this regime. With absolutely no blocking, placement and timing of the key features are critical. Ofc they are hard to identify specifically and change from run to run this far out. The NS energy dropping down the east side of the ridge helped NE on the 0z GFS run. Ops are gonna be chaotic for a few more days I think. The GEFS and EPS continue with the general idea of most of the action offshore for this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Mount Holly's take this morning on the late week potential- The setup becomes fairly interesting by the end of the week, with the cold surface high retreating to our north and east downstream of a digging trough in the central U.S. This has potential to develop a surface low near or off the Southeast coast by the end of the week into the weekend, with cold air lingering in the Northeast poleward of the low. Of course, solutions by this point are widely varying, with the 00z ECMWF shifting the system well offshore (as opposed to the prior 12z ECMWF, which lifts a strong low right through the heart of the CWA next weekend). The CMC is weaker overall with the system, but farther west than the 00z ECMWF. The 00z GFS gives much of the area a healthy winter storm. Much too early to pick and choose a solution, with consensus suggesting the best chances for precipitation in our area just beyond the forecast period anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 6z GFS bringing back the goods next weekend. Go check it out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: 6z GFS bringing back the goods next weekend. Go check it out! Indeed it did lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, Scraff said: 6z GFS bringing back the goods next weekend. Go check it out! I would lock in that evolution and track for my yard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 The western US ridge orientation and amplitude is about perfect this run, and just enough interaction from the energy rotating down from the TPV. Didn't have that last run. Might be gone next run, or be too much. The subtleties. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, jayyy said: The 6z run coming up could easily show a foot for us Right on queue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The western US ridge orientation and amplitude is about perfect this run, and just enough interaction from the energy rotating down from the TPV. Didn't have that last run. Might be gone next run, or be too much. The subtleties. Doesn’t get much better than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Mmmmhmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 We get heavy snow, Boston gets rain as the low drives through New England. Upstate NY gets rocked on the backside of a 973mb slp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: Doesn’t get much better than this Couple closed contours over Tennessee says otherwise 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Cold and wet - good combo. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: The western US ridge orientation and amplitude is about perfect this run, and just enough interaction from the energy rotating down from the TPV. Didn't have that last run. Might be gone next run, or be too much. The subtleties. Yup, ridge axis through Idaho - love that look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 34 minutes ago, jayyy said: We get heavy snow, Boston gets rain as the low drives through New England. Upstate NY gets rocked on the backside of a 973mb slp It is a touchy setup with a cold HP in place but relaxing leading in, and no block/50-50. Need some degree of amplification, but not TOO much. The interaction with NS energy is critical. Don't want the southern shortwave to dampen in the wake of a vorticity lobe, but if one drops in just behind at the wrong time we may have a repeat of last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Better. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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