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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m all in for 0z. Small chance of an “emergency” showing up. But Timing should be right. See yas for 18z euro too

ugh my insurance sucks. I just got beat for $449 for Nike glasses and frames.  I mean it’s my fault. I skipped 2.5 years of exams. 
 

Somebody move this to banter. I’m not even gonna try on this phone. 

Stop squinting at the models and you'll be fine :nerdsmiley:

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14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m all in for 0z. Small chance of an “emergency” showing up. But Timing should be right. See yas for 18z euro too

ugh my insurance sucks. I just got beat for $449 for Nike glasses and frames.  I mean it’s my fault. I skipped 2.5 years of exams. 
 

Somebody move this to banter. I’m not even gonna try on this phone. 

 

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12 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

At the rate it's stepping back from frozen this could be a non event come Friday maybe. Cold chasing moisture meh

The usual with these deals. Almost a certainty here, but could be pretty decent up near the PA line.

Remember the GFS is king though- it won't back down.:yikes:

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The usual with these deals. Almost a certainty here, but could be pretty decent up near the PA line.

Remember the GFS is king though- it won't back down.:yikes:

Seems the meeting in the middle between the GFs and euro is going to be a Fall Line event. Fall line and north gets measurable icing and associated impacts. Another 25-50mi S/E of the Fall Line perhaps some light icing at the end plus a freeze over of surfaces. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

This really is setting up to be an ultimate test of the GFS new status.  Like most others said, I think everybody will meet in the middle as we close in

Based on it's performance for the last storm, I am not sure how/why it has this new status. I mean, the ICON may have even figured it out sooner.

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Just now, CAPE said:

Based on it's performance for the last storm, I am not sure how/why it has this new status. I mean, the ICON may have even figured it out sooner.

This man hates the GFS.  Cut it some slack...we gotta be homers, even if it doesn't deserve it.  I think it's more of the Euro swinging wildly than anything else.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

This man hates the GFS.  Cut it some slack...we gotta be homers, even if it doesn't deserve it.  I think it's more of the Euro swinging wildly than anything else.

I just think the model love hyperbole is silly, regardless of which one gets put up on a pedestal.

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems the meeting in the middle between the GFs and euro is going to be a Fall Line event. Fall line and north gets measurable icing and associated impacts. Another 25-50mi S/E of the Fall Line perhaps some light icing at the end plus a freeze over of surfaces. 

Could even see a bit of freezing/frozen at the very end here. Mount Holly is concerned about the freeze over potential.

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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Based on it's performance for the last storm, I am not sure how/why it has this new status. I mean, the ICON may have even figured it out sooner.

The Euro has moved WAY more to the GFS than the GFS has toward the Euro on this event. GFS has crept up a few degrees...Euro is close to a full cave.

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1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said:

i agree.  gfs overplaying cold front.  

I get the posts in here about being cautious with the Friday setup, 4/5 times they fail. But we've got a fresh airmass pressing down in here and we're only a degree or two off from this being a problematic event. It's foolhardy to outright dismiss this because then you look terrible.

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Sunday too.  Book it

18z GFS trended toward the suppressed/offshore idea on the CMC and Euro. Still a ways to go with that one though. I have always liked the potential for early next week better than late this week, esp for the coastal plain. Still time.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18z GFS trended toward the suppressed/offshore idea on the CMC and Euro. Still a ways to go with that one though. I have always liked the potential for early next week better than late this week, esp for the coastal plain. Still time.

That looks like a tough one to me.  I don’t like the look of it at all.  Seems complicated.  

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I’m all in for 0z. Small chance of an “emergency” showing up. But Timing should be right. See yas for 18z euro too

ugh my insurance sucks. I just got beat for $449 for Nike glasses and frames.  I mean it’s my fault. I skipped 2.5 years of exams. 
 

Somebody move this to banter. I’m not even gonna try on this phone. 

Emergency is an odd way to spell “booty call”

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For the whole month of Jan, right? Been hella good here.

BTW a good part of the city is on the western edge of the coastal plain. The rest is close enough.

Yeah but still not East enough in a nina, though. We did however get a little piece of the weekend coastal (about 1.5" worth and some wind).

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