Solution Man Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 GFS looking different for early next week, could be something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 To me, GFS not showing much through Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: To me, GFS not showing much through Wed. Still strung out…nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: GFS looking different for early next week, could be something Well, there's a high to the north that wasn't there before, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Lol another new solution from the 00z GFS... at least we have nice placement of the ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Disastrous run. This model needs a severe upgrade 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Miller B garbage. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Miller B garbage. lol Thought Miller B's didn't really have a southern component? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 WB 0Z GFS….so big storm is still there but model is a fish storm for the MA 7 plus days out. I would rather have out to sea then up the Great Lakes at this point, although unclear how this comes close to the coast without more ridging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thought Miller B's didn't really have a southern component? ahh nevermind, I thought it was sparked from just that northern vort. Mets? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Euro seems right about Tuesday. No precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GFS….so big storm is still there but model is a fish storm for the MA 7 plus days out. I would rather have out to sea then up the Great Lakes at this point, although unclear how this comes close to the coast without more ridging out west. It’s still VERY early to worry about details…but needing a west trend is not the same as needing a north trend. I’d always prefer needing a north trend v needing a west one because at long range guidance is often too far south with features…but they are also often too fast to phase and amplify with stream interactions and that makes a west trend less “with the typical bias error”. Doesn’t mean we can’t get that. And not even sure we need it, we’re just talking about two op runs which at this range means nothing. But I don’t want to see guidance converge on a late developing scenario. Those are harder to reel in than having it show some big snowstorm south of us that slides out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Better looking ridge out in the pna region thru 132 on the gefs vs 18z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 CMC skanks us..shit storm moves too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: CMC skanks us..shit storm moves too far east UKIE is a miss wide right as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s still VERY early to worry about details…but needing a west trend is not the same as needing a north trend. I’d always prefer needing a north trend v needing a west one because at long range guidance is often too far south with features…but they are also often too fast to phase and amplify with stream interactions and that makes a west trend less “with the typical bias error”. Doesn’t mean we can’t get that. And not even sure we need it, we’re just talking about two op runs which at this range means nothing. But I don’t want to see guidance converge on a late developing scenario. Those are harder to reel in than having it show some big snowstorm south of us that slides out. So true. Needing a west trend puts us in a terrible spot. That quickly becomes a dreadful scenario and often produces the most bitter endings when areas just to our northeast gets hammered. The Blizzard of 78 is one of the very rare instances where this happened and it was only enough to save from BWI north. If that occurred today half the forum would meltdown. 8 inches at BWI and 12 in the city and probably a bit more up here. Bel Air maybe 18. Hardly anything in DC and Dulles. I often wonder why storms don't back into our area a little bit more often. There are probably only a few times in the last 100 years. The April fools storm in 1997 that crushed New England did back into us. Had that storm occurred a month earlier or in the heart of winter it would have been respectable from Baltimore north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 CMC skanks us..shit storm moves too far eastWe have gone downhill so fast since noon that it feels we skied down mt everest to the valley of death faster than it takes Will WB to post depressing maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Better looking ridge out in the pna region thru 132 on the gefs vs 18z: Shows nothing for us at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Models are speeding up the NS wave. Problem with that is the timing is now off and most of the STJ wave that was responsible for the better hybrid looks gets left behind. That makes it more a miller b scenario and we all know how a Nina miller b is likely to end for us. Still time to shift back towards what we want. Several options. 1) get the 1st NS SW to slow down. 2) get it to dig further west 3) get it to speed up and clear out because there is another behind it that could link up with the stj a day or two later. Right now the timing looks off. We just need it to adjust faster or slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Shows nothing for us at allThis is why you dont want the op to show a huge storm 8 days out. No where to go but down....down deep into the black pit of digital snow loss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Shows nothing for us at all You would think this is good…but the individual members show nothing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Models are speeding up the NS wave. Problem with that is the timing is now off and most of the STJ wave that was responsible for the better hybrid looks gets left behind. That makes it more a miller b scenario and we all know how a Nina miller b is likely to end for us. Still time to shift back towards what we want. Several options. 1) get the 1st NS SW to slow down. 2) get it to dig further west 3) get it to speed up and clear out because there is another behind it that could link up with the stj a day or two later. Right now the timing looks off. We just need it to adjust faster or slower Ack...that SS getting left behind has been an annoyance this month...don't wanna see that happen again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 My timing suspicions seem to be confirmed by the gefs. Several hits do eventually show up…but they are a day or two AFTER the members that hit New England with a Miller b like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Models are speeding up the NS wave. Problem with that is the timing is now off and most of the STJ wave that was responsible for the better hybrid looks gets left behind. That makes it more a miller b scenario and we all know how a Nina miller b is likely to end for us. Still time to shift back towards what we want. Several options. 1) get the 1st NS SW to slow down. 2) get it to dig further west 3) get it to speed up and clear out because there is another behind it that could link up with the stj a day or two later. Right now the timing looks off. We just need it to adjust faster or slower Nothing ever works out for us. Every trend is the exact opposite of what we want. We are in an awful location. Too North for this weekend event....too west and south for the gfs blizzard. Too east for clippers to work out. We are always in the in-between. We suck at weather. No hurricanes tornados t storms...squalls....just boring crap every year. Climate change has made our weather even more boring than it was. The backedge shows up before the first flake arrives. Snow always ends 2 hours quicker than models show. The sleet line always comes way faster than forecasted. All the angles are wrong...timing is off...highs always slide east...lows always push west unless we want them east. Blues are always where reds should be. Reds are always over us. We waste cold. We thrive on warm. We can't accumulate when it snows in the teens. We suck at weather except for sun and heat and that's not even weather. We are a weatherless town 2 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Nothing ever works out for us. Every trend is the exact opposite of what we want. We are in an awful location. To North for this weekend event....too west and south for the gfs blizzard. Too east for clipperd to work out. We are always in the in-between. We suck at weather. No hurricanes tornados t storms...squalls....just boring crap every year. Climate change has made out westher even more boring than it was. The backedge shows up before the first flake arrives. Snow always ends 2 hours quicker than models show. The sleet line always comes way faster than forecasted. All the angles are wrong...timing is off...highs always slide east...lows always push west unless we want them east. Blues are always where reds should be. Reds are always over us. We waste cold. We thrive on warm. We can't accumulate when it snows in the teens. We suck at weather except for sun and heat and that's not even weather. We are a weatherless town But other then that how was the show Mrs Lincoln? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 @Ji I got 50” last winter. I certainly have no right to complain. And while I’m not doing well so far…considering February and March are my 1st and 2nd snowiest months…I will likely still creep closer to climo yet. And if we do enter a gradient pattern that can be a lot better up here. As for your exact location…you barely missed the big totals Jan 3. That sucks. But for a Nina you’re still ahead of typical pace. We are due for a MECS or HECS level storm but that’s likely going to have to wait until next year if we get a modoki Nino! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My timing suspicions seem to be confirmed by the gefs. Several hits do eventually show up…but they are a day or two AFTER the members that hit New England with a Miller b like the op. I only see like 4 or 5 that even give the DC region 6" of snow through 264... so even if they do show up, its not much/very many at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: I only see like 4 or 5 that even give the DC region 6" of snow through 264... so even if they do show up, its not much/very many at all We’re calling 6” “not much” now? When did we become Boston??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’re calling 6” “not much” now? When did we become Boston??? I'm not, my mistake in wording in my post if you are thinking that. I was more trying to say that the storms that do show up aren't big ones. I would take 2-4 anyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 @yoda you’re right though the majority are a miss and support the op solution. Just saying wrt timing the slower solutions were better for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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