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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z GFS….so big storm is still there but model is a fish storm for the MA 7 plus days out.  I would rather have out to sea then up the Great Lakes at this point, although unclear how this comes close to the coast without more ridging out west.

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It’s still VERY early to worry about details…but needing a west trend is not the same as needing a north trend. I’d always prefer needing a north trend v needing a west one because at long range guidance is often too far south with features…but they are also often too fast to phase and amplify with stream interactions and that makes a west trend less “with the typical bias error”. Doesn’t mean we can’t get that. And not even sure we need it, we’re just talking about two op runs which at this range means nothing. But I don’t want to see guidance converge on a late developing scenario. Those are harder to reel in than having it show some big snowstorm south of us that slides out. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s still VERY early to worry about details…but needing a west trend is not the same as needing a north trend. I’d always prefer needing a north trend v needing a west one because at long range guidance is often too far south with features…but they are also often too fast to phase and amplify with stream interactions and that makes a west trend less “with the typical bias error”. Doesn’t mean we can’t get that. And not even sure we need it, we’re just talking about two op runs which at this range means nothing. But I don’t want to see guidance converge on a late developing scenario. Those are harder to reel in than having it show some big snowstorm south of us that slides out. 

So true. Needing a west trend puts us in a terrible spot. That quickly becomes a dreadful scenario and often produces the most bitter endings when areas just to our northeast gets hammered. The Blizzard of 78 is one of the very rare instances where this happened and it was only enough to save from BWI north. If that occurred today half the forum would meltdown. 8 inches at BWI and 12 in the city and probably a bit more up here. Bel Air maybe 18. Hardly anything in DC and Dulles. I often wonder why storms don't back into our area a little bit more often. There are probably only a few times in the last 100 years. The April fools storm in 1997 that crushed New England did back into us. Had that storm occurred a month earlier or in the heart of winter it would have been respectable from Baltimore north. 

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Models are speeding up the NS wave. Problem with that is the timing is now off and most of the STJ wave that was responsible for the better hybrid looks gets left behind.   That makes it more a miller b scenario and we all know how a Nina miller b is likely to end for us. Still time to shift back towards what we want. Several options.  1) get the 1st NS SW to slow down. 2) get it to dig further west 3) get it to speed up and clear out because there is another behind it that could link up with the stj a day or two later.  Right now the timing looks off. We just need it to adjust faster or slower 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Models are speeding up the NS wave. Problem with that is the timing is now off and most of the STJ wave that was responsible for the better hybrid looks gets left behind.   That makes it more a miller b scenario and we all know how a Nina miller b is likely to end for us. Still time to shift back towards what we want. Several options.  1) get the 1st NS SW to slow down. 2) get it to dig further west 3) get it to speed up and clear out because there is another behind it that could link up with the stj a day or two later.  Right now the timing looks off. We just need it to adjust faster or slower 

Ack...that SS getting left behind has been an annoyance this month...don't wanna see that happen again!

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Models are speeding up the NS wave. Problem with that is the timing is now off and most of the STJ wave that was responsible for the better hybrid looks gets left behind.   That makes it more a miller b scenario and we all know how a Nina miller b is likely to end for us. Still time to shift back towards what we want. Several options.  1) get the 1st NS SW to slow down. 2) get it to dig further west 3) get it to speed up and clear out because there is another behind it that could link up with the stj a day or two later.  Right now the timing looks off. We just need it to adjust faster or slower 
Nothing ever works out for us. Every trend is the exact opposite of what we want. We are in an awful location. Too North for this weekend event....too west and south for the gfs blizzard. Too east for clippers to work out. We are always in the in-between. We suck at weather. No hurricanes tornados t storms...squalls....just boring crap every year. Climate change has made our weather even more boring than it was. The backedge shows up before the first flake arrives. Snow always ends 2 hours quicker than models show. The sleet line always comes way faster than forecasted. All the angles are wrong...timing is off...highs always slide east...lows always push west unless we want them east. Blues are always where reds should be. Reds are always over us. We waste cold. We thrive on warm. We can't accumulate when it snows in the teens. We suck at weather except for sun and heat and that's not even weather. We are a weatherless town



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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Nothing ever works out for us. Every trend is the exact opposite of what we want. We are in an awful location. To North for this weekend event....too west and south for the gfs blizzard. Too east for clipperd to work out. We are always in the in-between. We suck at weather. No hurricanes tornados t storms...squalls....just boring crap every year. Climate change has made out westher even more boring than it was. The backedge shows up before the first flake arrives. Snow always ends 2 hours quicker than models show. The sleet line always comes way faster than forecasted. All the angles are wrong...timing is off...highs always slide east...lows always push west unless we want them east. Blues are always where reds should be. Reds are always over us. We waste cold. We thrive on warm. We can't accumulate when it snows in the teens. We suck at weather except for sun and heat and that's not even weather. We are a weatherless town

But other then that how was the show Mrs Lincoln?  

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@Ji I got 50” last winter. I certainly have no right to complain. And while I’m not doing well so far…considering February and March are my 1st and 2nd snowiest months…I will likely still creep closer to climo yet. And if we do enter a gradient pattern that can be a lot better up here. As for your exact location…you barely missed the big totals Jan 3. That sucks. But for a Nina you’re still ahead of typical pace.  We are due for a MECS or HECS level storm but that’s likely going to have to wait until next year if we get a modoki Nino!  

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My timing suspicions seem to be confirmed by the gefs. Several hits do eventually show up…but they are a day or two AFTER the members that hit New England with a Miller b like the op.  

I only see like 4 or 5 that even give the DC region 6" of snow through 264... so even if they do show up, its not much/very many at all

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