North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Waaaay too much focus on black and white euro vs gfs. They're both right and wrong and they are both shifting. Don't pit them against each other. Use them both to figure out what's in between. I am gonna go ahead and roll with the more interesting one for my area. Go USA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, LP08 said: Also, there are like a zillion vorts it seems so trying to key on the right one more the a few days out seems difficult. That gif that showed the southern vort go from Amarillo to Texarkana at hour 96 (497 miles, yes I looked it up lol). That to me is a massive shift in a time frame that the euro doesn't usually do that. Great comparison and catch by you. That's a big shift in the MR. With Friday all over the place on guidance, way too early to rule anything out for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I know its been stated but the NAM is 10-15 degrees cooler tomorrow afternoon comparing to the GFS/HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: I know its been stated but the NAM is 10-15 degrees cooler tomorrow afternoon comparing to the GFS/HRRR. LWX alludes to this in their discussion today: THERE IS A CONCERN FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME HIRES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BECAUSE MOST GUIDANCE THAT IS INDICATING THIS, SHOWS MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S UNDERNEATH LOW CLOUDS THAT DO NOT MIX OUT. HOWEVER, THE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW, SO LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT LATE IN THE MORNING/AFTERNOON, CAUSING HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAT WHAT THAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. THIS WOULD KEEP THE THREAT MORE ISOLATED (PERHAPS HIGHLAND COUNTY OR WESTERN MD). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 @39 name a little more NW than 12z :/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18z Thursday for DC: NAM 39 GFS 47 Euro 52 3k 38 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Guess the NAM is teeing up the 18z GFS meltdown like we had last week that one run pre coastal scrape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Guess the NAM is teeing up the 18z GFS meltdown like we had last week that one run pre coastal scrape. Maybe will warm sector and get some thunder on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Freezing line coming in a little further SE at 66...just a hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z Friday: Nam 58 GFS 32 Euro 35 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 usual northern areas below freezing at the surface at 72. Near wxusaf land and north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18z GFS drama...will it finally back down on one or both systems!?! Stay tuned!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 18z GFS drama...will it finally back down on one or both systems!?! Stay tuned!! So is the NAM actually slightly colder and farther along with the freezing line compared to its own 12Z? (ETA: I'm referring to Friday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: So is the NAM actually slightly colder and farther along with the freezing line compared to its own 12Z? (ETA: I'm referring to Friday). Sorry..yes, but by like 15 miles or so. N and W areas see some ice action mostly. It gets down to DC when precip is still in the area, but it's light and on the way out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Sorry..yes, but by like 15 miles or so. N and W areas see some ice action mostly. It gets down to DC when precip is still in the area, but it's light and on the way out OK thanks. I think that's kinda similar to what it had before at 12Z, but haven't looked at its details. Not a step back at any rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 So models have no formula to where low will go. Have to wait until 12 hours before critical time to see if baro is exerting enough to push it s&e. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: So models have no formula to where low will go. Have to wait until 12 hours before critical time to see if baro is exerting enough to push it s&e. But some people are going to be expecting forecasts around ice potential a bit more than 12 hours in advance of the onset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: So models have no formula to where low will go. Have to wait until 12 hours before critical time to see if baro is exerting enough to push it s&e. I’ll go ahead and make a claim. That low is not going up the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: But some people are going to be expecting forecasts around ice potential a bit more than 12 hours in advance of the onset... exactly, it's called forecasting for a reason. if no models existed, there would be no forecasting beyond extrapolating on prior/current conditions. nowcasting takes as much skill as a layup line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I recognize this upcoming “event” on Friday is a bit different set-up, but cannot help but think the GFS and ECM are once again over-doing the QPF in the cold air behind the front (like they did on Jan. 20). We’ve all been down this road so many times - most of the QPF will be gone before the near/sub-freezing temps arrive - even N/W of the cities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Stop me if you’ve heard this before, and I have not seen it but THE ICON SUCKS 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Stop me if you’ve heard this before, and I have not seen it but THE ICON SUCKS Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 At the optometrist and they’re slow. Doubt i make 18zgfs pbp for the relevant times. Godspeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Hmmmm mmmmmmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Did anyone post the GFs ensembles from 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: @39 name a little more NW than 12z :/ File of lolz. Right @mappy? name NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 19 minutes ago, H2O said: File of lolz. Right @mappy? name NAM You’re reaching now. Autocorrect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS not yielding thru 54 ETA it is a bit further NW. stupid phone comparison is shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS not yielding thru 54 This fun. You do good job pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS not yielding thru 54 ETA it is a bit further NW. stupid phone comparison is shit. You don't have to make yourself susceptible to being wrong just because you're not in a place to do pbp. These people here can go look them damn selves lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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