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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Waaaay too much focus on black and white euro vs gfs. They're both right and wrong and they are both shifting. Don't pit them against each other. Use them both to figure out what's in between. 

I am gonna go ahead and roll with the more interesting one for my area. Go USA. 

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25 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Also, there are like a zillion vorts it seems so trying to key on the right one more the a few days out seems difficult.  That gif that showed the southern vort go from Amarillo to Texarkana at hour 96 (497 miles, yes I looked it up lol).  That to me is a massive shift in a time frame that the euro doesn't usually do that.

Great comparison and catch by you.  That's a big shift in the MR.  With Friday all over the place on guidance, way too early to rule anything out for Sunday.

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I know its been stated but the NAM is 10-15 degrees cooler tomorrow afternoon comparing to the GFS/HRRR.

LWX alludes to this in their discussion today:

THERE IS A CONCERN FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF   PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME HIRES GUIDANCE IS   INDICATING THIS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BECAUSE MOST   GUIDANCE THAT IS INDICATING THIS, SHOWS MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY TO   BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S UNDERNEATH LOW CLOUDS THAT DO NOT MIX   OUT. HOWEVER, THE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW, SO LATEST   THINKING IS THAT THE LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT LATE IN THE   MORNING/AFTERNOON, CAUSING HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAT WHAT THAT   GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. THIS WOULD KEEP THE THREAT MORE ISOLATED   (PERHAPS HIGHLAND COUNTY OR WESTERN MD).

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

So is the NAM actually slightly colder and farther along with the freezing line compared to its own 12Z?  (ETA:  I'm referring to Friday).

Sorry..yes, but by like 15 miles or so.  N and W areas see some ice action mostly.  It gets down to DC when precip is still in the area, but it's light and on the way out

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Sorry..yes, but by like 15 miles or so.  N and W areas see some ice action mostly.  It gets down to DC when precip is still in the area, but it's light and on the way out

OK thanks.  I think that's kinda similar to what it had before at 12Z, but haven't looked at its details.  Not a step back at any rate.

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8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

But some people are going to be expecting forecasts around ice potential a bit more than 12 hours in advance of the onset...

exactly, it's called forecasting for a reason.  if no models existed, there would be no forecasting beyond extrapolating on prior/current conditions.  nowcasting takes as much skill as a layup line.

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I recognize this upcoming “event” on Friday is a bit different set-up, but cannot help but think the GFS and ECM are once again over-doing the QPF in the cold air behind the front (like they did on Jan. 20). 

We’ve all been down this road so many times - most of the QPF will be gone before the near/sub-freezing temps arrive - even N/W of the cities.

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