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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Wait...oh hell, i thought that was a progression of the same model.  It's a comparison of prior runs.   Ok, I'm a bit more interested.

It's definitely got the low level cold now. The interest will be timing and rate of precip. Light precip with falling temps would create some serious skating on the roads potential. Hell, Bob could skate around Rockville with this setup. 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's definitely got the low level cold now. The interest will be timing and rate of precip. Light precip with falling temps would create some serious skating on the roads potential. Hell, Bob could skate around Rockville with this setup. 

Hard to kick cute bunnies when you're sliding around!

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

It's definitely got the low level cold now. The interest will be timing and rate of precip. Light precip with falling temps would create some serious skating on the roads potential. Hell, Bob could skate around Rockville with this setup. 

Even without significant precip with cold temps we would still most likely see a flash freeze on most wet surfaces due to the crashing temperatures. Looks to be disruptive with or without precip.

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Main difference i see between the Euro and GFS for the Sunday thing is the NS sw coming in through the NW.  GFS is slower and dives behind the southern vort.  Euro sends it in tandem over the top thus not allowing it to amplify.

500hv.conus_GFS.png

500hv.conus EURO.png

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's definitely got the low level cold now. The interest will be timing and rate of precip. Light precip with falling temps would create some serious skating on the roads potential. Hell, Bob could skate around Rockville with this setup. 

Wish we could slow down the ejection of that energy in the southwest by 8-10 hours. Let that cold bleed in and run the precip up and over it.

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Main difference i see between the Euro and GFS for the Sunday thing is the NS sw coming in through the NW.  GFS is slower and dives behind the southern vort.  Euro sends it in tandem over the top thus not allowing it to amplify.

500hv.conus_GFS.png

500hv.conus EURO.png

Good catch.  I was looking at yesterday's 12z Euro and I realized it was actually the NORTHERN s/w that caused the storm!  It sheared out the southern wave (like it does today), but dropped in the northern wave far enough to develop that weak coastal.  

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12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I understand this now.  this is a loop of the past 5 euro runs.  It has trended from a nothing burger to a triple with cheese.  interesting to see it like that

Thanks for picking that up. I didn’t realize that was what it was showing.  It does seem the Euro is trending more frozen. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good catch.  I was looking at yesterday's 12z Euro and I realized it was actually the NORTHERN s/w that caused the storm!  It sheared out the southern wave (like it does today), but dropped in the northern wave far enough to develop that weak coastal.  

Take a look at this GIF.  Euro was closer to getting that southern vort out in front.  That was a huge shift from 0z.

Euro GIf Trend.gif

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The GFS is walking towards the Euro as the Euro runs toward the GFS.  Numbers below are for DCA and GFS simulations initialized at 00, 06, and 12 UT

 

Freezing Rain commences:  3 AM, 5 AM, and 7 AM and ends at 7 PM, 7 PM, 3 PM 

Total freezing rain: 0.60, 0.49, 0.24"

% of freezing rain with T < 26: 45%, 0%, 0%

% of freezing rain with T < 29: 83%, 75%, 33%

 

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11 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Main difference i see between the Euro and GFS for the Sunday thing is the NS sw coming in through the NW.  GFS is slower and dives behind the southern vort.  Euro sends it in tandem over the top thus not allowing it to amplify.

500hv.conus_GFS.png

500hv.conus EURO.png

Another reason to not go gung-ho just yet. Trying get the vort interaction (probably not a scientific term, lol) was a headache all last month. Don't trust much to nail that down yet.

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Another reason to not go gung-ho just yet. Trying get the vort interaction (probably not a scientific term, lol) was a headache all last month. Don't trust much to nail that down yet.

We shouldn't go gung ho on any threat that's less than a 2-3 days out. This is a really good catch by @LP08, though, and something to keep an eye out for in future runs.

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4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

We shouldn't go gung ho on any threat that's less than a 2-3 days out. This is a really good catch by @LP08, though, and something to keep an eye out for in future runs.

Sure, logically most of us know we shouldn't...but that was a warning for the weenie psychology part of the brain that doesn't care how far out we we are and already put one foot in!

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17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Another reason to not go gung-ho just yet. Trying get the vort interaction (probably not a scientific term, lol) was a headache all last month. Don't trust much to nail that down yet.

Also, there are like a zillion vorts it seems so trying to key on the right one more the a few days out seems difficult.  That gif that showed the southern vort go from Amarillo to Texarkana at hour 96 (497 miles, yes I looked it up lol).  That to me is a massive shift in a time frame that the euro doesn't usually do that.

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