BristowWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: yes positive progress from it's 6z run as it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Euro kneels to the king but does not collapse, lets hope it fully pays service to the GFS for the Sunday storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: positive progress from it's 6z run as it appears Yesterday's 12z run had DC at 58 degrees 7am Friday, today's 12z has DC at 35 degrees 7am Friday. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 on to the next. Not like the GFS setup for next storm so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 S 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yesterday's 12z run had DC at 58 degrees 7am Friday, today's 12z has DC at 35 degrees 7am Friday. Trending to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 It does have the vort to the south, but not as vigorous or negatively tilted so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I chose my words carefully with that post Hunch=locked into prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: on to the next. Not like the GFS setup for next storm so far I mean the GFS has perfect storm like the old GFS in fantasy land... I just wish another model would have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Let me ask something here...if the 850s are still above 0c and the mid level thicknesses are still rather warm, what is making the surface be able to get so cold on some of these runs? Cold air is like a stone. It’ll drop straight to the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Thing is, they both have the vort energy, just one is more vigorous and in the right spot/neg tilt. The Euro is just more diffuse with it and weak. At this range it's somewhat of a "similar" look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hunch=locked into prediction Wrong word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Thing is, they both have the vort energy, just one is more vigorous and in the right spot/neg tilt. The Euro is just more diffuse with it and weak. At this range it's somewhat of a "similar" look. Doing good brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Yeah, Euro has a storm...about 200 miles east of Savannah ETA...i wouldn't even call it a storm...just a blob of precip 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Think l put my eggs in the gfs basket at range. Pretty clear at this point 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, Euro has a storm...about 200 miles east of Savannah Just where we want it on this latest incarnation of the Euro. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It does have the vort to the south, but not as vigorous or negatively tilted so far as long as the GFS has it...i feel good. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 h5 and sfc similarities are non existent after 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Think l put my eggs in the gfs basket at range. Pretty clear at this point Right? That looks like a full cave from the Euro for Friday so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Cold air is like a stone. It’ll drop straight to the bottom I get it with cold air damming when its already a cold antecedent airmass but I guess I am asking where is it coming from in the atmosphere if its already warm and going up it remains somewhat warm (progressively getting colder but still above 0c) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 So ummmmmm, this is legit a more serious situation brewing on the ECMWF for Friday. This is the trend loop for Ice Estimations with FRAM dynamics. This would be a memorable event if this would verify 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 I like the 1030 low the euro has in Minnesota on Friday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: So ummmmmm, this is legit a more serious situation brewing on the ECMWF for Friday. This is the trend loop for Ice Estimations with FRAM dynamics. This would be a memorable event if this would verify That’s a full bow down to the GFS 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: So ummmmmm, this is legit a more serious situation brewing on the ECMWF for Friday. This is the trend loop for Ice Estimations with FRAM dynamics. This would be a memorable event if this would verify meh 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: So ummmmmm, this is legit a more serious situation brewing on the ECMWF for Friday. This is the trend loop for Ice Estimations with FRAM dynamics. This would be a memorable event if this would verify I understand this now. this is a loop of the past 5 euro runs. It has trended from a nothing burger to a triple with cheese. interesting to see it like that 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I get it with cold air damming when its already a cold antecedent airmass but I guess I am asking where is it coming from in the atmosphere if its already warm and going up it remains somewhat warm (progressively getting colder but still above 0c) It’s undercutting the warm air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: meh I know. I know. Not until Connecticut Ave caves 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: I understand this now. this is a loop of the past 5 euro runs. It has trended from a nothing burger to a triple with cheese. interesting to see it like that Now I know what I'm getting for dinner. Thanks! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, MillvilleWx said: I know. I know. Not until Connecticut Ave caves it's only Tuesday so I suppose the potential is for a further sinking of the freeze line. interesting again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: h5 and sfc similarities are non existent after 120 I could see another full cave by the euro coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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