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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Let me ask something here...if the 850s are still above 0c and the mid level thicknesses are still rather warm, what is making the surface be able to get so cold on some of these runs?

Cold air is like a stone. It’ll drop straight to the bottom

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Cold air is like a stone. It’ll drop straight to the bottom

I get it with cold air damming when its already a cold antecedent airmass but I guess I am asking where is it coming from in the atmosphere if its already warm and going up it remains somewhat warm (progressively getting colder but still above 0c)

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

So ummmmmm, this is legit a more serious situation brewing on the ECMWF for Friday. This is the trend loop for Ice Estimations with FRAM dynamics. 

This would be a memorable event if this would verify

4677473_IceFRAMECMWF.thumb.gif.5c078fe0735fd4ca4364ae3cb817db23.gif

I understand this now.  this is a loop of the past 5 euro runs.  It has trended from a nothing burger to a triple with cheese.  interesting to see it like that

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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I get it with cold air damming when its already a cold antecedent airmass but I guess I am asking where is it coming from in the atmosphere if its already warm and going up it remains somewhat warm (progressively getting colder but still above 0c)

It’s undercutting the warm air

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