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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet vs gfs lol. Only a 20-30 deg difference over northern MD nbd. 

AFDB614E-49BB-42FF-8322-01A6F91E1ADB.png

22281678-0BA8-4908-8BE4-647E9BDABDAE.png

That's like what, 40-50miles? I don't see how this is such a huge difference given it's still 3 days out. It's starting to become pretty clear that the GFS is overdone with it's cold push and other models have it to warm. 6z and 12z gfs have backed off a bit and other guidance has come in colder. This is most likely setting up to be a rain to ice for northern and western counties. Best case for frozen imo would be,  warnings far north and west with advisories just to north and west of cities. 

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:
25 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
WB 12Z GEFS improved, but still very weak support for Sunday.
C889EAD0-4F93-482D-9150-FE2306037F94.thumb.png.a92af419bb5d7065554ab94f562c725d.png

Op is much more reliable than the gefs

Problem is they aren't really connected anymore. Same init data but different maths and stuff from there. You can use op/ens comparison. Each has to be looked at in isolation. 

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The lighter precip being shown via the GFS for Friday would certainly be a worse case scenario for ice. Light precip accretes very efficiently as you limit the latent heat processes involved with ice generation. As we get closer to the event, using modeled output that has the FRAM will have a better idea on expectations for ice potential. Accumulated Freezing Rain output is not total ice formation. It's basically a ptype accumulation of precipitation that would fall as freezing rain. The actual amount of ice accretion would need incrementally more formulation to infer potential for ice. Given the lighter precip field, that would yield more significant results considering the physical process. 

As for the major difference in temperatures in the short term, WRF NSSL is also agreeing with the NAM 3km with the temperature profile in question for tomorrow. I'm curious to see any adjustments between those two models in the next 24-36 hrs. Low level cold can be tough to erode, but I think a case of climo will come into play. A sharp delineation will likely occur with a setup of this nature. 30s to near 40 over the northern tier but 50s into the DC area would not be a shock at all. 

I don't have any concrete forecast at the moment, but I would expect areas north of I-70 will have a rough day on Friday with ice accretion, ending as some sleet and a touch of snow. I am bearish with snow prospects. 

Edit: When talking about the temperatures in the final few sentences in the second paragraph, I was referring to Thursday high temperatures. I should've specified. NBM 25th percentile temperature forecast agrees with my assumption. 38-42 over the northern tier, mid 40s for I-70 down through northern half of MoCo/HoCo/southern half of Baltimore Co, 50s over Rt 50 on south. 

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

@stormtracker @WinterWxLuvr this was the visual I was looking at earlier - matters for the Central VA folks, maybe not up there

[animate output image]

Yeah, this one seems to be getting away from me over on the other side of Afton Mountain from you as well.  Like PSU said, the second wave is the more interesting one anyways!

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