stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, H2O said: The NJ one died. Que @mappy to thank him for his sacrifice Que @mappy https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_Ay40ftk9UNwEn6As1WdlWcHhbAElhozUyig9yTgBEY/edit?usp=sharing 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The question is how much of the GFS's coastal depends on it being right about wave 1? If its wrong on that, what are the downstream effects on wave 2? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Gfs basically has zero support for either storm. Face reality we probably ain’t getting anything. Gfs straight trolling us. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Que @mappy https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_Ay40ftk9UNwEn6As1WdlWcHhbAElhozUyig9yTgBEY/edit?usp=sharing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: Gfs basically has zero support for either storm. Face reality we probably ain’t getting anything. Gfs straight trolling us. Not true - Euro has had wave 2 for several runs now and yesterday's 12z looked a lot like the GFS just showed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 @WinterWxLuvrpromised a historic end to this winter, so if these fail blame him. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: Not true - Euro has had wave 2 for several runs now and yesterday's 12z looked a lot like the GFS just showed. Ya and 0z didn’t and ukmet had it before and it’s gone now as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya and 0z didn’t and ukmet had it before and it’s gone now as well. K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ukmet vs gfs lol. Only a 20-30 deg difference over northern MD nbd. That's like what, 40-50miles? I don't see how this is such a huge difference given it's still 3 days out. It's starting to become pretty clear that the GFS is overdone with it's cold push and other models have it to warm. 6z and 12z gfs have backed off a bit and other guidance has come in colder. This is most likely setting up to be a rain to ice for northern and western counties. Best case for frozen imo would be, warnings far north and west with advisories just to north and west of cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 UKMET for weekend thing has something around, but misses to our south it looks like from these maps that appear to have been made from MS Paint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya and 0z didn’t and ukmet had it before and it’s gone now as well. At this point, as long as there is a signal for a storm on Sunday we're good. We need to wait until we get further into the Friday storm until details start getting worked out for the Sunday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Damn, I missed the chance for Jaws. F*cking jobQuit...winter comes first 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 35 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn, I missed the chance for Jaws. F*cking job Quit...winter comes first I've trained 3/4 of them to know when not to bother me. But the other 1/4...got to work on them 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, snowfan said: @WinterWxLuvrpromised a historic end to this winter, so if these fail blame him. I chose my words carefully with that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 WB 12Z GEFS improved, but still very weak support for Sunday.Op is much more reliable than the gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: UKMET for weekend thing has something around, but misses to our south it looks like from these maps that appear to have been made from MS Paint. I’m out if the UKIE is out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Prince died Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'll be in Colorado this weekend where it ISN'T supposed to snow, so 100 percent chance this verifies. You're welcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 25 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS improved, but still very weak support for Sunday. Op is much more reliable than the gefs Problem is they aren't really connected anymore. Same init data but different maths and stuff from there. You can use op/ens comparison. Each has to be looked at in isolation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Did ya hear? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 55 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I did not see much 6Z EPS support or GEFS support. This year, the ops are leading the ensembles at 5 days out* *special 21-22 winter weenie rule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The lighter precip being shown via the GFS for Friday would certainly be a worse case scenario for ice. Light precip accretes very efficiently as you limit the latent heat processes involved with ice generation. As we get closer to the event, using modeled output that has the FRAM will have a better idea on expectations for ice potential. Accumulated Freezing Rain output is not total ice formation. It's basically a ptype accumulation of precipitation that would fall as freezing rain. The actual amount of ice accretion would need incrementally more formulation to infer potential for ice. Given the lighter precip field, that would yield more significant results considering the physical process. As for the major difference in temperatures in the short term, WRF NSSL is also agreeing with the NAM 3km with the temperature profile in question for tomorrow. I'm curious to see any adjustments between those two models in the next 24-36 hrs. Low level cold can be tough to erode, but I think a case of climo will come into play. A sharp delineation will likely occur with a setup of this nature. 30s to near 40 over the northern tier but 50s into the DC area would not be a shock at all. I don't have any concrete forecast at the moment, but I would expect areas north of I-70 will have a rough day on Friday with ice accretion, ending as some sleet and a touch of snow. I am bearish with snow prospects. Edit: When talking about the temperatures in the final few sentences in the second paragraph, I was referring to Thursday high temperatures. I should've specified. NBM 25th percentile temperature forecast agrees with my assumption. 38-42 over the northern tier, mid 40s for I-70 down through northern half of MoCo/HoCo/southern half of Baltimore Co, 50s over Rt 50 on south. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: Did you hear Betty White died? Noooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I believe at this point we have confirmation from 3-4 people that they are out of town this week. First call 4-8"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, H2O said: Prince died Shit, you’re kidding. When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 H5 at the end of the GFS run is freaking wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 @stormtracker @WinterWxLuvr this was the visual I was looking at earlier - matters for the Central VA folks, maybe not up there 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: @stormtracker @WinterWxLuvr this was the visual I was looking at earlier - matters for the Central VA folks, maybe not up there But how worried should we be with the temperatures leading up to the event. It is not like the freezing rain is coming into cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: @stormtracker @WinterWxLuvr this was the visual I was looking at earlier - matters for the Central VA folks, maybe not up there Yeah, this one seems to be getting away from me over on the other side of Afton Mountain from you as well. Like PSU said, the second wave is the more interesting one anyways! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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