NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 @72...sfc freezing line is just a hair further NW...I'm talking noise level...10 miles...6z had it on DC SE border. Now it's on DC NW borderIf you flip it back like 3/4 runs though you can see it going somewhat consistently more north — might be working on a meet in the middle trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS stays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: If you flip it back like 3/4 runs though you can see it going somewhat consistently more north — might be working on a meet in the middle trend. Agree I just did that going the wrong way slowly now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 WB 12Z GFS compared to 6Z snow line retreated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Damn! GFS be like… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 It's starting to pick up more dry air intrusion on mid-levels and drying out the precip. Still a nasty ice storm locally, (freezing drizzle accumulates faster that FZRA+) but the heavy stuff is moving up the 95 corridor. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: If you flip it back like 3/4 runs though you can see it going somewhat consistently more north — might be working on a meet in the middle trend. I don’t think I agree. I see it bouncing +/- 10 miles or so but I see no trend at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 WB 12Z GFS sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 We need to slow that low or speed up that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 gonna need to deal with precip chasing cold for the late weekend system (which i think we actually do better here), assuming it's not a slider...we'll see what the gfs paints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I think maybe we're seeing a little meeting in the middle here. GFS has been trending a bit stronger and norther with the second wave, which pushes the mid level temps up so it is more of a ZR event instead of ZR-sleet-snow. Probably does go to sleet for areas north of DC verbatim on this run. But I don't think this is a snow event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Sounds like Short Pump VA and Laurel MD will be spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: @MN Transplant 12z 3km NAM still has near freezing high temps for tomorrow. 6z Euro was mid-upper 40s, 6z GFS was mid 40s. HRRR is still near 50. Makes no damn sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Really reduces the QDF with the second push of precip, which is probably the main issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 This is so delicate that if an alligator farts in South Carolina we will be in the 60’s and if a Polar Bear sh**s in Canada we will be in the 20’s. 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Now I'm starting to re-think if the GFS is right. There is literally no support for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t think I agree. I see it bouncing +/- 10 miles or so but I see no trend at all. Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Incoming 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 we need the friday wave to slow down by 6 hours, or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Now I'm starting to re-think if the GFS is right. There is literally no support for it. At this point I don’t even care but I will say that my experience in this situation is the cold air is always slower to progress than modeled. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I like the weekend storm on the GFS 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Sunday looks terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: I like the weekend storm on the GFS Lays the groundwork for THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Coastal Storms with a Great Lakes Low always work out right? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Sunday looks terrible Woah baby. F this ice noise. Gimme that action. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: At this point I don’t even care but I will say that my experience in this situation is the cold air is always slower to progress than modeled. Fwiw I agree...I think there's a reason we don't do cold chasing precip that often. This would be a bit anomalous, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: I like the weekend storm on the GFS Love this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Now I'm starting to re-think if the GFS is right. There is literally no support for it. stop wasting time on the wrong wave and cue up the jaws music 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, DCAlexandria said: Coastal Storms with a Great Lakes Low always work out right? Good things happen when Arctic air is hanging around 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Coastal Storms with a Great Lakes Low always work out right? Yeah that's why I'm not sure whether to start buying the weekend thing yet...unless the High stays around a bit longer, perhaps... Eta: @WxUSAF Kinda ninja'd my last sentence, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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