DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: I don't think the GFS is gonna fold guys It will probably meet the euro in the middle for a compromise? Maybe a 60% GFS/40% euro compromise lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z 3K NAM at 60 hours compared to 6Z GFS and EURO much colder. A lot out news outlets have been advertising a warm up to the 50s and 60s later this week, if the NAM is right that forecast would look quite bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The blazing sun angle will kill this threat before it even starts I'll never forget when Bob Chill said the dumb angle, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: A lot out news outlets have been advertising a warm up to the 50s and 60s later this week, if the NAM is right that forecast would look quite bad NAM has been stubborn with this but it's totally on an island. 6z Herpderp is mid-upper 40s for tomorrow while 3k NAM is near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I don't think the GFS is gonna fold guys the most wintry model always folds 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: NAM has been stubborn with this but it's totally on an island. 6z Herpderp is mid-upper 40s for tomorrow while 3k NAM is near freezing. Seems to be keeping the LL flow from the NE between the departing high and the lingering ocean low, and not 'seeing' the WAA. The NAM does get temps well into the 50s for much of the region on Friday though before the colder air presses in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ji said: the most wintry model always folds Yeah but that goes up against your rule about "if the gfs screws us it's usually right". Alright so what's your rule if it shows snow/ice? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Seems to be keeping the LL flow from the NE between the departing high and the lingering ocean low, and not 'seeing' the WAA. The NAM does get temps well into the 50s for much of the region on Friday though before the colder air presses in. Yes, but I'll note that 3k at 60hrs has the front noticeably south of where 12k has it at the same time. This is the type of situation where the NAM "should" be good at understanding temp boundaries. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'll never forget when Bob Chill said the dumb angle, lol It's all the angles that are murdering us. F angles. The cold air angle, the sun angle - we can't catch a break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I haven't even looked at it, but THE ICON SUCKS 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I haven't even looked at it, but THE ICON SUCKS Cold rain. Maybe a backside slush flake north west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I haven't even looked at it, but THE ICON SUCKS icon outcome is what I am expecting! I suspect the gfs is doing an awful job of handling cold front. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I haven't even looked at it, but THE ICON SUCKS Slightly better than 6z in multiple respects, gets the cold here a tiny bit quicker and the moisture stays a bit longer giving us a slight period of frozen precip at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The FV3 looks pretty similar with the cold push at hour 60 to the GFS, unfortunately it is the FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: The FV3 looks pretty similar with the cold push at hour 60 to the GFS, unfortunately it is the FV3 Because it's based off the previous GFS run. So it should always look a lot like the last GFS run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Because it's based off the previous GFS run. So it should always look a lot like the last GFS run. For clarification...is this the same "FV3-GFS" that came out a few years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: For clarification...is this the same "FV3-GFS" that came out a few years ago? Not exactly. The "new" GFS uses the FV3 dynamical core. A model's dynamical core is the portion of the model doing the physics of atmospheric motion. The "FV3" on TT is the mesoscale model that also uses the FV3 dynamical core. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: For clarification...is this the same "FV3-GFS" that came out a few years ago? It's all based on the FV3 core now, global included. FV3-HiRes, if I am not mistaken, is an in-development mesoscale model based on the same physics as the new GFS that will eventually supersede the NAM and be the basis for mesoscale ensembles. But I could be dead wrong, I don't really get much up to date model development news. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Yeah the ICON is an improvement … if freezing temps by Saturday was your goal lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Another model question... what is the GFDL C-Shield? Just more FV3 experimentations? It says snow depth post-storm will be 2-4 inches for Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 So far, GFS continues to give middle finger to everybody else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 RGEM wants absolutely nothing to do with this. Slightly warmer than 6z if anything. Maybe a couple sleet pellets for @mappy as it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 at 48hr, verbatim..an exact copy of 6z @ 54 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 lol, a hair Southeaster at 54 vs 6z at 60hr. Oh man, what a model fight this is gonna be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: at 48hr, verbatim..an exact copy of 6z @ 54 hours I guess we know where this is headed, bob chill clock time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 the advertised temp drop on the gfs from 6z to 12z is suspect. even if the surface temps drop like that, the mid levels are not ideal. i think we want that trailing wave friday to take its sweet time getting itself together for this to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 @72...sfc freezing line is just a hair further NW...I'm talking noise level...10 miles...6z had it on DC SE border. Now it's on DC NW border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Per Tony Pann's tweet, the GRAF is on #TeamGFS, so we got that going on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: the advertised temp drop on the gfs from 6z to 12z is suspect. even if the surface temps drop like that, the mid levels are not ideal. i think we want that trailing wave friday to take its sweet time getting itself together for this to work out. it failed with the advertised temp drop on the 20th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 This model is living in weenieland 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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