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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, MN Transplant said:

I know all eyes are on the precipitation, but I can’t get over what the 3km NAM is trying to do tomorrow.  It holds us all near freezing all day, while the Euro, GFS, and HRRR all take us to the upper 40s.

Where are you leaning on this? Would it not be strange for the NAM to bust that hard on temps 24 hours out? Usual NAM jokes apply.

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11 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Still not buying what the gfs is selling. No other model support. The idea that it’s the new king is overdone just like the models desire to overdo the cold chasing precip. Wouldn’t rule out some icy conditions; but what’s depicted on the gfs doesn’t look likely. Nws isn’t buying it either. 

I will agree with the bolded. As for the rest, the GFS is still a cold outlier, but the Euro has made some small steps in pressing the cold faster. No mention of freezing/frozen for here, so at least for the southern third of the FA Mount Holly isn't (yet) buying the aggressive push of cold depicted on the GFS.

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10 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Still not buying what the gfs is selling. No other model support. The idea that it’s the new king is overdone just like the models desire to overdo the cold chasing precip. Wouldn’t rule out some icy conditions; but what’s depicted on the gfs doesn’t look likely. Nws isn’t buying it either. 

Pretty much all model's now show us at least changing to a brief period of frozen. What the GFS is selling is really not that far fetched anymore. The question now is does the GFS hold and model's continue to trend to it or do they meet in the middle? 

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I know all eyes are on the precipitation, but I can’t get over what the 3km NAM is trying to do tomorrow.  It holds us all near freezing all day, while the Euro, GFS, and HRRR all take us to the upper 40s.

Normally I'd say maybe it's the increased resolution - but the HRRR being in line with the other guidance tells me maybe the 3km NAM is smoking something. 

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44 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Still not buying what the gfs is selling. No other model support. The idea that it’s the new king is overdone just like the models desire to overdo the cold chasing precip. Wouldn’t rule out some icy conditions; but what’s depicted on the gfs doesn’t look likely. Nws isn’t buying it either. 

The GFS has been the best model this winter, but it's not perfect. Look at it's performance for Jan. 20 LOL

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And lol at “I don’t buy that”. And I do it too. Haha. But it doesn’t matter what we “buy” when looking at a model. The model might not be right. But what it shows for itself is right. That’s what it is “buying” at that time.

Sorta like it doesn’t matter when/if we start a thread?

:damage:

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Honestly, and your probably the same, I don’t give two of anything about the NAM.

Not at this stage. I joke around, but I do look at it to watch for trends. And there’s nothing else to look at. We’re all data hogs when it comes to models.  We need one ran every 15 minutes.  

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not at this stage. I joke around, but I do look at it to watch for trends. And there’s nothing else to look at. We’re all data hogs when it comes to models.  We need one ran every 15 minutes.  

Working from home == I get to watch model runs during zoom meetings, without having to clandestinely look at my phone in a conference room. 10/10

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