MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I know all eyes are on the precipitation, but I can’t get over what the 3km NAM is trying to do tomorrow. It holds us all near freezing all day, while the Euro, GFS, and HRRR all take us to the upper 40s. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, MN Transplant said: I know all eyes are on the precipitation, but I can’t get over what the 3km NAM is trying to do tomorrow. It holds us all near freezing all day, while the Euro, GFS, and HRRR all take us to the upper 40s. Where are you leaning on this? Would it not be strange for the NAM to bust that hard on temps 24 hours out? Usual NAM jokes apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Still not buying what the gfs is selling. No other model support. The idea that it’s the new king is overdone just like the models desire to overdo the cold chasing precip. Wouldn’t rule out some icy conditions; but what’s depicted on the gfs doesn’t look likely. Nws isn’t buying it either. I will agree with the bolded. As for the rest, the GFS is still a cold outlier, but the Euro has made some small steps in pressing the cold faster. No mention of freezing/frozen for here, so at least for the southern third of the FA Mount Holly isn't (yet) buying the aggressive push of cold depicted on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 What is record for most freezing rain in dc metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Still not buying what the gfs is selling. No other model support. The idea that it’s the new king is overdone just like the models desire to overdo the cold chasing precip. Wouldn’t rule out some icy conditions; but what’s depicted on the gfs doesn’t look likely. Nws isn’t buying it either. Pretty much all model's now show us at least changing to a brief period of frozen. What the GFS is selling is really not that far fetched anymore. The question now is does the GFS hold and model's continue to trend to it or do they meet in the middle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I know all eyes are on the precipitation, but I can’t get over what the 3km NAM is trying to do tomorrow. It holds us all near freezing all day, while the Euro, GFS, and HRRR all take us to the upper 40s. Normally I'd say maybe it's the increased resolution - but the HRRR being in line with the other guidance tells me maybe the 3km NAM is smoking something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: What is record for most freezing rain in dc metro? You should probably look at Jan ‘94. Not sure if that was a record amount, but the cold freeze afterwards was brutal and the ice stayed a long time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS is really by itself including the second wave on Sunday which I am more interested in… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 It is February! Think we need a new thread for the month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Damn. GFS won’t blink. Gonna be an interesting 12z suite. The NAM is coming up. I’m excited and The only thing I’ve had so far is only coffee! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Damn. GFS won’t blink. Gonna be an interesting 12z suite. The NAM is coming up. I’m excited and The only thing I’ve had so far is only coffee! What does the NAM look like at hour 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What does the NAM look like at hour 3? No changes. Initiation looked pretty good too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 44 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Still not buying what the gfs is selling. No other model support. The idea that it’s the new king is overdone just like the models desire to overdo the cold chasing precip. Wouldn’t rule out some icy conditions; but what’s depicted on the gfs doesn’t look likely. Nws isn’t buying it either. The GFS has been the best model this winter, but it's not perfect. Look at it's performance for Jan. 20 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 And lol at “I don’t buy that”. And I do it too. Haha. But it doesn’t matter what we “buy” when looking at a model. The model might not be right. But what it shows for itself is right. That’s what it is “buying” at that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: No changes. Initiation looked pretty good too. Did you confirm initialization with surface obs and satellite photos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And lol at “I don’t buy that”. And I do it too. Haha. But it doesn’t matter what we “buy” when looking at a model. The model might not be right. But what it shows for itself is right. That’s what it is “buying” at that time. Sorta like it doesn’t matter when/if we start a thread? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Did you confirm initialization with surface obs and satellite photos? Thoroughly I’m stuck on the Metro. So close to work. But so far. Might make it in time for the NAM. I know you can’t wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sorta like it doesn’t matter when/if we start a thread? Thread starting is voodoo. Voodoo is real my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thoroughly I’m stuck on the Metro. So close to work. But so far. Might make it in time for the NAM. I know you can’t wait. Honestly, and your probably the same, I don’t give two of anything about the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 So far NAM dead on match with 6z at the surface. @30 hr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Honestly, and your probably the same, I don’t give two of anything about the NAM. Not at this stage. I joke around, but I do look at it to watch for trends. And there’s nothing else to look at. We’re all data hogs when it comes to models. We need one ran every 15 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Thread starting is voodoo. Voodoo is real my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thoroughly I’m stuck on the Metro. So close to work. But so far. Might make it in time for the NAM. I know you can’t wait. This is shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, H2O said: This is shocking Trains every 178 minutes will do that. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not at this stage. I joke around, but I do look at it to watch for trends. And there’s nothing else to look at. We’re all data hogs when it comes to models. We need one ran every 15 minutes. Working from home == I get to watch model runs during zoom meetings, without having to clandestinely look at my phone in a conference room. 10/10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 hr 30 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Sadly, nothing notable to report on the NAM thru 36 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: hr 30 Eh. Slight tick. I can’t compare comfortably on this ****kng phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ok. Yes there is a slight but noticeable push SE at 36. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I’m never doing this again on a phone. I had the GD maps different. I thought the 12z was 6z and vice versa. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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