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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
Sunday looks ugly too with ice although the high looks to be in a bad spot.  I don’t know.  

Man we suck at snow. We need another pattern reset

True but if you were looking for a high impact winter event and snow is not your main dish that would be it.  

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8 minutes ago, mappy said:

Ava showed the Euro during her 6:15 weather hit this morning. Looks like a prolonged sleet/ice event up here. yippee 

Ch 9 down here barely mentioned any frozen in their segment. Showed mostly rain. It is only Tuesday tho

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Perhaps some give on the GFS side too. 

Verbatim, the surface layer push of cold air to DCA on the GFS is weaker for the 06 UT initialization than 00 UT according to Cobb output. 

For DCA, the decrease in temperatures from 1 to 7 AM on the 4th is now 51.0 to 28.3 degrees; it was 36.2 to 25.4 degrees at 00 UT

For DCA, the onset of freezing rain is pushed back to 5 AM on the 4th from 3 AM.

The total amount of freezing rain decreases from 0.60 to 0.49

The amount of freezing rain with sub 26 degree temperatures decreases from 0.27 to 0.00.  

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Still not buying what the gfs is selling. No other model support. The idea that it’s the new king is overdone just like the models desire to overdo the cold chasing precip. Wouldn’t rule out some icy conditions; but what’s depicted on the gfs doesn’t look likely. Nws isn’t buying it either. 

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