stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So am I. Follow the 570 and 564 lines I am. Let's see what happens. Lower heights should allow the cold to press in a little quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Also the 420 lines 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Yeah heights are lower in the east thru h42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Nam will follow GFS…Hmmmmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Think it’s important for it to hold back some energy. Hoping that might lead to extended precip. Not sure it works that way though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Theres some light precip at 54 with what looks like CAD, with shallow cold but won't hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 36 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Where are the SREF people? It's not a real future fail without those being brought out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I am. We tried to trust the nam last week. Couldn't even verify 12 hours out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Depth in the southwest not as deep. Having a seesaw effect on the heights in the east, lower also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Nam looks…. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 heights in the most important part are not lower...compare the h5 maps between 18z and 0z. Ill die on that hill. Maybe a met can solve. 60 vs 66. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it, no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: heights in the most important part are not lower...compare the h5 maps between 18z and 0z. Ill die on that hill. Maybe a met can solve. 60 vs 66. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it, no problem. Where is the most important part? Can you make a box? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I actually hope I'm wrong, so don't jump down my throat. Anyway, sfc freezing like made a move S and E toward the area vs 18z...I'm at 69...heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Where is the most important part? Can you make a box? Hopefully I'm wrong and you and Winterwx can put me in a box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: I actually hope I'm wrong, so don't jump down my throat. Anyway, sfc freezing like made a move S and E toward the area vs 18z...I'm at 69...heh I don't really care who is right between you and him, I just want to know about the run. I'm trying to play poker atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 By 66 the heights are pretty much in line with 18z. Basically a wash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Hopefully I'm wrong and you and Winterwx can put me in a box I just looked over us at one frame stopped after that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 I’m not trying to be right. It is what it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ok, the sag south is noticeable..but it's like a bulge on the SE end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Hopefully I'm wrong and you and Winterwx can put me in a box You're high 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: You're high Girl, same. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 the move south is there, but much more so over KY, OH. Where we need it to get souther is just held up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: You're high Kinda...just not enough. But I am higher than the heights in front 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Definitely looks like it’s trending more to the GFS in terms of when and where the frozen precip is at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Yeah, as the main slug of moisture before the wave starts moving up, the front is just stuck in WV and even moves NW just a tiny bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok, the sag south is noticeable..but it's like a bulge on the SE end Sag and bulge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: the move south is there, but much more so over KY, OH. Where we need it to get souther is just held up.. Look up around James Bay. That PV isn’t giving us the push we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 29 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I don’t actually know why they use that terminology. SREF is ensemble-based, so it uses slightly different initial conditions to see how robust the solutions are to model/observation error. It is an older system so they aren’t as advanced as other methods now. Way more SREF information than anyone ever wanted or needed, but in addition to initial condition differences, the members are comprised of two different cores, and there are some other physics differences too. And one of those model cores is a system that has mostly been retired, so as noted, it's very much an outdated system. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The NAM is trash at range and will likely change significantly before game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Not even close to the 18z GFS. This model is stupid. (until it shows what we want) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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