RevWarReenactor Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I am not buying what the GFS is selling. Didn't it do poorly on that cold chasing precip storm a couple weeks ago? Don't ice storms around here usually underperform? No other model support. Ya figure too, temps crash and its not just going to magically ice over. Thats going to take a bit. So its got to be overdone in my opinion. Maybe I have no dog in this fight. I am chasing this and will be on the snow side of the boundary where ever that ends up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Is this you?Why do you ask?Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said: I am not buying what the GFS is selling. Didn't it do poorly on that cold chasing precip storm a couple weeks ago? Don't ice storms around here usually underperform? No other model support. Ya figure too, temps crash and its not just going to magically ice over. Thats going to take a bit. So its got to be overdone in my opinion. Maybe I have no dog in this fight. I am chasing this and will be on the snow side of the boundary where ever that ends up being. Got time to go to Michigan or Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Got time to go to Michigan or Indiana? No. But I don't need to find the jackpot. Just be the snow side. Which will still do well during this long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: I am not buying what the GFS is selling. Didn't it do poorly on that cold chasing precip storm a couple weeks ago? Don't ice storms around here usually underperform? No other model support. Ya figure too, temps crash and its not just going to magically ice over. Thats going to take a bit. So its got to be overdone in my opinion. Maybe I have no dog in this fight. I am chasing this and will be on the snow side of the boundary where ever that ends up being. Keep us posted. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 You think the store shelves are empty now, just wait a day or two if this verifies 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: I am not buying what the GFS is selling. Didn't it do poorly on that cold chasing precip storm a couple weeks ago? Don't ice storms around here usually underperform? No other model support. Ya figure too, temps crash and its not just going to magically ice over. Thats going to take a bit. So its got to be overdone in my opinion. Maybe I have no dog in this fight. I am chasing this and will be on the snow side of the boundary where ever that ends up being. You must not have lived here long. We do sleet and ice quite well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: No. But I don't need to find the jackpot. Just be the snow side. Which will still do well during this long duration event. Indy…good party town also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: You think the store shelves are empty now, just wait a day or two if this verifies Put an ISW out and watch the fun. Scarier to nearly everyone…only the blizzard warning is more impactful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Solution Man said: You think the store shelves are empty now, just wait a day or two if this verifies Tell me about it. Another big storm or 2 and it will take us weeks to recover from a supply chain standpoint It took us a week to recover from the storm 2 weeks ago. And when I say recover I Mean recover back to the atrocious conditions we've had for the last year lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: Put an ISW out and watch the fun. Scarier to nearly everyone…only the blizzard warning is more impactful Apocalypse here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Tell me about it. Another big storm or 2 and it will take us weeks to recover from a supply chain standpoint It took us a week to recover from the storm 2 weeks ago. And when I say recover I Mean recover back to the atrocious conditions we've had for the last year lol. Good grief 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Tell me about it. Another big storm or 2 and it will take us weeks to recover from a supply chain standpoint It took us a week to recover from the storm 2 weeks ago. And when I say recover I Mean recover back to the atrocious conditions we've had for the last year lol. People are stupid. There’s probably never been a weather event here that would keep you stranded for more than a couple of days. People shop like their the Donner party. And the biggest threat from this is a power outage. Good idea to stock up the fridge and then have to figure how to keep it from going bad. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: People are stupid. There’s probably never been a weather event here that would keep you stranded for more than a couple of days. People shop like their the Donner party. And the biggest threat from this is a power outage. Good idea to stock up the fridge and then have to figure how to keep it from going bad. Lol yea. Been in the grocery industry for almost 30 years and it's insanity. With our supply chain being on a razors thin edge it doesn't take much for us to not have any chicken in the case for a week now unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Lol yea. Been in the grocery industry for almost 30 years and it's insanity. With our supply chain being on a razors thin edge it doesn't take much for us to not have any chicken in the case for a week now unfortunately. By the way, thanks for what you do. This industry is so disrespected, along with our logistics industry. 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I saw that the NWS discussion now mentions the cold front and chance for a changeover Friday morning. It seems that they are hesitant to go there after the last anafrontal debacle. They also mentioned a coastal low possibility on Sunday… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, snowmagnet said: I saw that the NWS discussion now mentions the cold front and chance for a changeover Friday morning. It seems that they are hesitant to go there after the last anafrontal debacle. They also mentioned a coastal low possibility on Sunday… This is a completely different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Thoughts from Mount Holly for late week- Thursday-Friday... A cold front to our northwest will gradually move into the region during this time as a wave of low pressure tracks along it. Ahead of the front, a much milder air mass will move in as heights continue to rise and surface winds remain southerly. Many areas will make in into the 50s on Thursday, or else well into the 50s. Gradual rain development from northwest to southeast is expected as the front slowly approaches, although much of the day should remain dry south and east of I-95. We then watch the evolution of the front. Model agreement has worsened regarding the evolution of this system, with the GFS today lurching to a much colder solution than previous runs and showing a significant snow and ice event for at least the northern half of the region. This would happen if the cold front moves through faster and the wave of low pressure tracks over or south of us. However, other models like the EC and GEM remain warmer with mainly rain save for the very far north as the low tracks just north of us. This would bring another round of temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s on Friday. While I am not all in on the GFS solution, it is concerning. With a very strong Arctic high to the north of this frontal system, and lingering snowpack over our region, the setup is ripe for models to display a warm bias. Would not be surprised to see a colder, less amplified trend on this system in the coming days. Would be doubtful of winter weather impacts extending any further south than the GFS indicates, and as it is the GFS is probably pushing it. However, it does appear that winter weather risks are increasing at least across northern portions of the area. Friday night... Friday night will see the departure of the frontal system. As the cold front moves away, Arctic air will rush into the region. The mild conditions of Thursday and Friday will be replaced by readings in the 10s and 20s. The overall evolution of the system and whether it looks more like the GFS camp or EC camp will determine how precipitation ends. Am always skeptical of short duration back-end snow, but it does look like the rain/ice/snow line will collapse towards the coast late in the event, especially if the colder model solutions are right. And the further north you go, the better the chances for a lengthier period of frozen precip near the end of the system. Either way, with the temperatures likely to be crashing before precipitation ends, the setup looks quite favorable for a rapid freeze-up on Friday night, so we will be keeping an eye on this. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 So is the GFS completely on an island? Is anything else showing this? GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: So is the GFS completely on an island? Is anything else showing this? GEFS? 12z ensembles showed decent support for the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The one harsh reality that many seem to ignore is that an ice storm creates suffering and misery for millions. The terrible results takes years to recover from. Minor ice is a nuisance except for the many who suffer inconvenience. Major ice cripples the communities affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: People are stupid. There’s probably never been a weather event here that would keep you stranded for more than a couple of days. People shop like their the Donner party. And the biggest threat from this is a power outage. Good idea to stock up the fridge and then have to figure how to keep it from going bad. In 2010, we had 2' of snow on our street and not a single vehicle drove though it until it was plowed less than 24 hours before the second storm hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Start the thread @WinterWxLuvr 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18z GEFS looks a bit colder on the mean vs 12z, bit lower heights indicating good cold press from up north. (Just looking at the basic TT maps since I'm mobile). Can someone get us more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, AU74 said: In 2010, we had 2' of snow on our street and not a single vehicle drove though it until it was plowed less than 24 hours before the second storm hit. Well that means it was plowed by the 9th. So that means you had to suffer through three whole days. Just how much toilet paper, bread and milk does it take to get through 3 days? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: 18z GEFS looks a bit colder on the mean vs 12z, bit lower heights indicating good cold press from up north. (Just looking at the basic TT maps since I'm mobile). Can someone get us more. Heights will play a big role. I liked seeing the gfs flatter in front with lower heights over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: Start the thread @WinterWxLuvr Hell f*** no. And I’m begging, literally begging that we don’t start any thread one minute before the 12z runs on Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Hell f*** no. And I’m begging, literally begging that we don’t start any thread one minute before the 12z runs on Wednesday The superior sub on this board, New England, already has a thread. I’m thinking we need one soon. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: The superior sub on this board, New England, already has a thread. I’m thinking we need one soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: The superior sub on this board, New England, already has a thread. I’m thinking we need one soon. We will not follow these so called blue bloods 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts