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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

BINGO.  This man here gets it.  Da fuq can somebody sweat details at a >100 hr map?  Right now, I'm looking for general and broad signal.  It's still there.  Why would anybody want it to show the perfect scenario now when they know damn well it's not going to hold for the next 30 or so runs?

I think it all comes from the might and the maybes...Ya see a boom run and ya see what can go right (likely triggering a "feel good" response...). You see a bust run and you're reminded of what can go wrong. So I'm not sure it's about like actually being okay with being in the bullseye this early...but rather a reaction to negative runs showing a possibility (likely triggering the opposite response in the brain).

Like others have said...psychologists would have a field day in here, lol

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Using basic longwave pattern progression to identify a window where a major amplification was likely near the east coast was the easy part.   That’s done with a 30,000 ft view of the hemispheric pattern. But we only care if that leads to snow in our yards.  That’s the fun but hard part determined by a bunch of details like SW timing and the angle the NS digs in at or how clean and where the phase happens…things we can’t know yet. This has a lot more moving parts then 2016. I doubt guidance starts to settle on the final general idea until inside 5 days and probably even then will have some specific details (that matter to us a lot) not pinned down until much later. I suggest we just enjoy the chaos until the guidance starts to converge and stabilize on a common general solution. 

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31 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

LOL!  GFS shows a gradient/overrunning type event near the end of its run.

Our best shot in this pattern. Without a -NAO and a 50/50 low none of the day 3-10 HECS that appear on models are going to verify.

Looks more like a -epo  polar vortex  pattern like 2013/2014.   We had plenty of day 3-10 HECS show up on models and not verify that winter also.

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Our best shot in this pattern. Without a -NAO and a 50/50 low none of the day 3-10 HECS that appear on models are going to verify.

Looks more like a -epo  polar vortex  pattern like 2013/2014.   We had plenty of day 3-10 HECS show up on models and not verify that winter also.

I tend to agree with you on this one.

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

BINGO.  This man here gets it.  Da fuq can somebody sweat details at a >100 hr map?  Right now, I'm looking for general and broad signal.  It's still there.  Why would anybody want it to show the perfect scenario now when they know damn well it's not going to hold for the next 30 or so runs?

The issue is addiction to the "pretty" surface/p-type maps. Completely useless at range and from run to run. Even a vet like Ji can't resist though. He still melts down when an op run doesn't show the blues over his yard.

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30 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Not bad for range 

 

D2F7E833-7BC0-464F-9921-3693FDE9983C.png

The tendency lately in this progressive pattern with Arctic cold air pressing southeast is for weakening shortwaves moving eastward, and low pressure developing offshore along the thermal boundary, then scooting out. The op runs today are depicting the degree and timing of the amplification to be more favorable for a track up along the coast. Time will tell if this will be any different than recent outcomes.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Both the eps and gefs show the epo ridge extended over the pole in Feb. that’s one way to get the cold that dumps into western Canada to press southeast. The current advertised pattern isn’t the December one. 

I see -PNA. Likely to be El Nino next year when +PNA turns - in February and early end to winter.

spaghetti-and-meatballs-1.jpg
 

This is how it happens.

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