SnowenOutThere Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: There is where I fake like I'm not checking every single NAM panel rn. Well if you are, could we get a pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I will not allow it Front needs to be lined up from 8:47 to 2:47. That pic is about an hour and 10 minutes off. @Bob Chill lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 38 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: The precip is (mostly) gone by 0Z, even on the mean, so we'd need more and faster. But maybe that was your point. Seems to me the follow-on event would be more worthwhile to track per the Euro. I do struggle with buying into any cold-chasing-moisture events, but this does look a little different, so who knows. If we can pull off a nice draping alignment over top from the front then it's not cold chasing precip... it's precip running into cold. We've had quite a few events like this. The biggest (obvious) challenge is can the front progress fast enough... idk tho, fronts seems to drag behind guidance in this progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Front needs to be lined up from 8:47 to 2:47. That pic is about an hour and 10 minutes off. @Bob Chill lol Isn't that a Chicago song? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 My forecast is for ice then heavy snow Thursday night/Friday I mean as long as we’re gonna make shit up like some do lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 NAM is about noticeably souther, east...but nothing outrageous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Isn't that a Chicago song? 25 or 624. In other words the chance of the Vikings winning a super bowl in our lifetime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: NAM is about noticeably souther, east...but nothing outrageous Don’t post again about the NAM until we get the or Jaws music Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t post again about the NAM until we get the or Jaws music We gotta see trends man! Yall are gonna be on your own for 18z...gym time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t post again about the NAM until we get the or Jaws music I mean..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM is about noticeably souther, east...but nothing outrageous Do we want that energy out west to take its time ejecting east? So...confluence/cold presses south a little quicker while the energy holds back a bit more = more precip arriving later as the cold air has had more time to press down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18z NAM is in between it's 12z run and 12z GFS with position of sfc freezing line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Do we want that energy out west to take its time ejecting east? So...confluence/cold presses south a little quicker while the energy holds back a bit more = more precip arriving later as the cold air has had more time to press down? Again, consider the source of this but I think we want any waves to slow the eff down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Do we want that energy out west to take its time ejecting east? So...confluence/cold presses south a little quicker while the energy holds back a bit more = more precip arriving later as the cold air has had more time to press down? I believe so, but Dr. Chill can confirm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 lol, NAM has a small sliver of CAD still hanging on at 63.. no other model has that. Don't think it means much tho...it';s shrinking and the surge from the SW is gonna kill it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Definitely further S and E of 12z run tho...still not quite GFS tho. So maybe we got a legit trend here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'm really doing pbp on the 72 hour NAM. I need stronger edibles tonight. 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 NAM is about noticeably souther, east...but nothing outrageousWe got 4 days to tick sojth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Wednesday afternoon - near freezing on the NAM nest, near 50 on the Euro. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Interesting, less sucky but still sucky run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Kinda surprised they went all in on that...lol Pattern changes that happen in late December and early January often tend to be more indicative of the predominant winter longwave pattern. The current pacific setup has been extremely stable. So long as we continue to see the trough near or just west of the Aleutians and the corresponding epo ridge it will continue to be cold on the average here. If we remain in this pattern long enough I would think eventually we luck into some of these waves. Feb and March offers increasing baroclinic energy for these waves to work with. We were pretty frustrated at this time in 2015 in a pac dominant pattern also. There is still hope this ends well. For lots of places it’s already been going well, have to remind myself I’ve just been unlucky this year. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 The ICON was not better. Whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The ICON was not better. Whatever Neither is the RGEM. It is north of 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Man my parents are under a WSW from now until Thursday night in Michigan for up to 16" of snow. I'm jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Pattern changes that happen in late December and early January often tend to be more indicative of the predominant winter longwave pattern. The current pacific setup has been extremely stable. So long as we continue to see the trough near or just west of the Aleutians and the corresponding epo ridge it will continue to be cold on the average here. If we remain in this pattern long enough I would think eventually we luck into some of these waves. Feb and March offers increasing baroclinic energy for these waves to work with. We were pretty frustrated at this time in 2015 in a pac dominant pattern also. There is still hope this ends well. For lots of places it’s already been going well, have to remind myself I’ve just been unlucky this year. Not to mention you can more than make up for it with mot just February but March in your yard! And wow, 2015 didn't get going until February? I had forgotten about that, Iol (that month had a little bit of everything--including the last surprise clipper we had!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Neither is the RGEM. It is north of 12Z. I’ll be honest I’ve been busy the last few days and I think there is potential for waves after this frontal passage…but I’m kinda shocked we’re tracking this in here. I wanted to head up to northern Vermont (Stowe or Sugarbush) next weekend and I was just praying it doesn’t rain (or freezing rain same difference wrt skiing) all the way to northern VT from this and ruin the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The ICON was not better. Whatever I mean I dont care about the ICON much but it is colder if you look at temps compared to 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I mean I dont care about the ICON much but it is colder if you look at temps compared to 12z That statement is vey dependent on WHEN you’re referring to. Looks slightly slower with the front than 12z, but colder behind it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 If the GFS is gonna fold entirely, it's not this run. Just noise differences thru hr89 by my eyes, cold push maybe a hair slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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