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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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38 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

The precip is (mostly) gone by 0Z, even on the mean, so we'd need more and faster. But maybe that was your point. Seems to me the follow-on event would be more worthwhile to track per the Euro. 

I do struggle with buying into any cold-chasing-moisture events, but this does look a little different, so who knows. 

If we can pull off a nice draping alignment over top from the front then it's not cold chasing precip... it's precip running into cold. We've had quite a few events like this. The biggest (obvious) challenge is can the front progress fast enough... idk tho, fronts seems to drag behind guidance in this progressive pattern. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

NAM is about noticeably souther, east...but nothing outrageous

Do we want that energy out west to take its time ejecting east? So...confluence/cold presses south a little quicker while the energy holds back a bit more = more precip arriving later as the cold air has had more time to press down?

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Do we want that energy out west to take its time ejecting east? So...confluence/cold presses south a little quicker while the energy holds back a bit more = more precip arriving later as the cold air has had more time to press down?

Again, consider the source of this but I think we want any waves to slow the eff down.

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Do we want that energy out west to take its time ejecting east? So...confluence/cold presses south a little quicker while the energy holds back a bit more = more precip arriving later as the cold air has had more time to press down?

I believe so, but Dr. Chill can confirm

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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Kinda surprised they went all in on that...lol

Pattern changes that happen in late December and early January often tend to be more indicative of the predominant  winter longwave pattern. The current pacific setup has been extremely stable. So long as we continue to see the trough near or just west of the Aleutians and the corresponding epo ridge it will continue to be cold on the average here.  If we remain in this pattern long enough I would think eventually we luck into some of these waves.  Feb and March offers increasing baroclinic energy for these waves to work with. We were pretty frustrated at this time in 2015 in a pac dominant pattern also. There is still hope this ends well. For lots of places it’s already been going well, have to remind myself I’ve just been unlucky this year. 

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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Pattern changes that happen in late December and early January often tend to be more indicative of the predominant  winter longwave pattern. The current pacific setup has been extremely stable. So long as we continue to see the trough near or just west of the Aleutians and the corresponding epo ridge it will continue to be cold on the average here.  If we remain in this pattern long enough I would think eventually we luck into some of these waves.  Feb and March offers increasing baroclinic energy for these waves to work with. We were pretty frustrated at this time in 2015 in a pac dominant pattern also. There is still hope this ends well. For lots of places it’s already been going well, have to remind myself I’ve just been unlucky this year. 

Not to mention you can more than make up for it with mot just February but March in your yard! And wow, 2015 didn't get going until February? I had forgotten about that, Iol (that month had a little bit of everything--including the last surprise clipper we had!)

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1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Neither is the RGEM. It is north of 12Z.

I’ll be honest I’ve been busy the last few days and I think there is potential for waves after this frontal passage…but I’m kinda shocked we’re tracking this in here.  I wanted to head up to northern Vermont (Stowe or Sugarbush) next weekend and I was just praying it doesn’t rain (or freezing rain same difference wrt skiing) all the way to northern VT from this and ruin the surface. 

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9 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I mean I dont care about the ICON much but it is colder if you look at temps compared to 12z

That statement is vey dependent on WHEN you’re referring to. Looks slightly slower with the front than 12z, but colder behind it.

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