baltosquid Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Coastal picked up by euro afterwards at least, not very strong though and temp concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: Yes. See Phineas for instructions! Oh I'll take the ice storm instead. Thanks. Lol. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowman98 said: rain, eh? It did shift s/e though at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Depending on how much snow you’re dead-set on, you’re gonna need at least a couple hundred miles’ shift SE. Even more if you’re holding out hope to get the Thursday night stuff rather than just a small Friday piece. Can’t say it’s impossible, but I’m near the point of rooting for the euro solution over getting stuck so close yet so far with an ice storm, just to avoid that nightmare of a commute for myself and everyone else. Doesn't have to be that complicated. Euro lags because the weak slp wave running it. Are we sure that's the correct timing? What if things get strung out an the final wave lags? Front progression or lack thereof when it counts has something to do with a small synoptic feature timing. I can't count the # of times we "thought" we knew how a boundary setup is going to work in the mid range only to get surprised in the short range (72 hours or less) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Doesn't have to be that complicated. Euro lags because the weak slp wave running it. Are we sure that's the correct timing? What if things get strung out an the final wave lags? Front progression or lack thereof when it counts has something to do with a small synoptic feature timing. I can't count the # of times we "thought" we knew how a boundary setup is going to work in the mid range only to get surprised in the short range (72 hours or less) True, I have been thinking today that the opening act is close to lost but there’s a lot of run to run variation on the western end of things. And even for the first portion, this was an entirely different setup, but I think the early January harsh cutoff storm was reeled in on even shorter notice. There’s at least some hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Temps generally not the issue in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro is sort of a compromise between the GFS and GGEM for the D7 storm, but that’s good and gives us a 3-6” swath. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Trust the euro. It never waffles 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro makes the coastal out to be a high end advisory result for those in the right path, but not super widespread. But everything’s picking up on a wave taking some sort of path around the area in that timeframe, more importantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Euro is sort of a compromise between the GFS and GGEM for the D7 storm, but that’s good and gives us a 3-6” swath. pass. Want BOS type or bring on spring* *I'm not serious. Do you hear me, weather gods? j/k j/k j/k 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Doesn't have to be that complicated. Euro lags because the weak slp wave running it. Are we sure that's the correct timing? What if things get strung out an the final wave lags? Front progression or lack thereof when it counts has something to do with a small synoptic feature timing. I can't count the # of times we "thought" we knew how a boundary setup is going to work in the mid range only to get surprised in the short range (72 hours or less) Gotta wonder if the theme for February is gonna be "Where's the boundary in YOUR neck of the woods?" Lol But hey, better than trying to track a coastal. Looking beyond D7 seems to be a whole train of boundary waves, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Not sure why you guys are even looking at the euro. Its been shit all last winter and this winter too. GFS only 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The GFS is very fast in pushing the boundary south with no real support from the ECM, GEM or ICON. I have very low confidence in that solution or is that wishful wish casting after nearly $5000 tree damage from the severe icestorm of November 15, 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Not sure why you guys are even looking at the euro. Its been shit all last winter and this winter too. GFS onlyAs I (and others) have tried to point out, the GFS was way too east with the weekend blizzard for much of the medium and short range. Wasn’t even close 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: As I (and others) have tried to point out, the GFS was way too east with the weekend blizzard for much of the medium and short range. Wasn’t even close Yup, and the euro was showing a blizzard for the metro's this time last week for the same time period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Yup, and the euro was showing a blizzard for the metro's this time last week for the same time period. I don’t remember that one. Seems like it would have caused a stir in here. I do remember the GFS previously thought the metros were getting a blizzard 9 days before this past weekend too. So they all have their faults. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Yup, and the euro was showing a blizzard for the metro's this time last week for the same time period. So you are saying it is like a flip of a coin in a NFL Playoff game? Arrgggghhhhh..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, stormy said: The GFS is very fast in pushing the boundary south with no real support from the ECM, GEM or ICON. I have very low confidence in that solution or is that wishful wish casting after nearly $5000 tree damage from the severe icestorm of November 15, 2018. This storm definitely is a good test for the new GFS, seeing it go up against the other globals and even have two runs back to back with an significant ice storm while the others show nothing definitely puts it at odds with the majority for now. So I guess we will see if the GFS is sniffing out a trend or just sniffing glue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: This storm definitely is a good test for the new GFS, seeing it go up against the other globals and even have two runs back to back with an significant ice storm while the others show nothing definitely puts it at odds with the majority for now. So I guess we will see if the GFS is sniffing out a trend or just sniffing glue. I too have been very impressed with the GFS this winter. This is one time I hope it is high on glue or just goofy! 18z will be telling. Will it sober up or continue leading the way again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 For the record, the 12z EPS Control is a fair bit colder than 00z and 06z. The EPS as a whole is as well, but we definitely need more. 12z EPS mean 06z EPS mean 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: For the record, the 12z EPS Control is a fair bit colder than 00z and 06z. The EPS as a whole is as well, but we definitely need more. 12z EPS mean 06z EPS mean The precip is (mostly) gone by 0Z, even on the mean, so we'd need more and faster. But maybe that was your point. Seems to me the follow-on event would be more worthwhile to track per the Euro. I do struggle with buying into any cold-chasing-moisture events, but this does look a little different, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: The precip is (mostly) gone by 0Z, even on the mean, so we'd need more and faster. But maybe that was your point. Seems to me the follow-on event would be more worthwhile to track per the Euro. I do struggle with buying into any cold-chasing-moisture events, but this does look a little different, so who knows. I sorta meant the original storm so I went back and added maps from 6 hours earlier the moment before you quoted me -- but it does matter for both storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: For the record, the 12z EPS Control is a fair bit colder than 00z and 06z. The EPS as a whole is as well, but we definitely need more. 12z EPS mean 06z EPS mean Big move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 There is where I fake like I'm not checking every single NAM panel rn. 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: There is where I fake like I'm not checking every single NAM panel rn. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'M looking at LWX's forecast for DCA. It says chance of rain Thursday, stronger Thursday night, less rain Friday as temperatures fall from the mid-50s but rain should be out of here by sunset at about 40 degrees before we plunge into the cold box again. No hint of winter precip in the UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, arlwx said: I'M looking at LWX's forecast for DCA. It says chance of rain Thursday, stronger Thursday night, less rain Friday as temperatures fall from the mid-50s but rain should be out of here by sunset at about 40 degrees before we plunge into the cold box again. No hint of winter precip in the UHI. Yeah, because as well all know, it's prudent to mention a significant ice storm 90 hours out when only one model is showing it. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, arlwx said: I'M looking at LWX's forecast for DCA. It says chance of rain Thursday, stronger Thursday night, less rain Friday as temperatures fall from the mid-50s but rain should be out of here by sunset at about 40 degrees before we plunge into the cold box again. No hint of winter precip in the UHI. not for DCA, but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: not for DCA, but I will not allow it 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I checked LWX's estimate for IAD in case I was hugging DCA, and it's similar. A rain/snow mix in Friday afternoon, ending about 6 pm with temperatures about 36 degrees before more tumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts