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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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5 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Depending on how much snow you’re dead-set on, you’re gonna need at least a couple hundred miles’ shift SE. Even more if you’re holding out hope to get the Thursday night stuff rather than just a small Friday piece. Can’t say it’s impossible, but I’m near the point of rooting for the euro solution over getting stuck so close yet so far with an ice storm, just to avoid that nightmare of a commute for myself and everyone else.

Doesn't have to be that complicated. Euro lags because the weak slp wave running it. Are we sure that's the correct timing? What if things get strung out an the final wave lags? Front progression or lack thereof when it counts has something to do with a small synoptic feature timing. I can't count the # of times we "thought" we knew how a boundary setup is going to work in the mid range only to get surprised in the short range (72 hours or less)

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Doesn't have to be that complicated. Euro lags because the weak slp wave running it. Are we sure that's the correct timing? What if things get strung out an the final wave lags? Front progression or lack thereof when it counts has something to do with a small synoptic feature timing. I can't count the # of times we "thought" we knew how a boundary setup is going to work in the mid range only to get surprised in the short range (72 hours or less)

True, I have been thinking today that the opening act is close to lost but there’s a lot of run to run variation on the western end of things. And even for the first portion, this was an entirely different setup, but I think the early January harsh cutoff storm was reeled in on even shorter notice. There’s at least some hope!

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro is sort of a compromise between the GFS and GGEM for the D7 storm, but that’s good and gives us a 3-6” swath.

pass.  Want BOS type or bring on spring*

 

 

*I'm not serious.  Do you hear me, weather gods? j/k j/k j/k

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Doesn't have to be that complicated. Euro lags because the weak slp wave running it. Are we sure that's the correct timing? What if things get strung out an the final wave lags? Front progression or lack thereof when it counts has something to do with a small synoptic feature timing. I can't count the # of times we "thought" we knew how a boundary setup is going to work in the mid range only to get surprised in the short range (72 hours or less)

Gotta wonder if the theme for February is gonna be "Where's the boundary in YOUR neck of the woods?" Lol But hey, better than trying to track a coastal. Looking beyond D7 seems to be a whole train of boundary waves, no?

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9 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Yup, and the euro was showing a blizzard for the metro's this time last week for the same time period. 

I don’t remember that one. Seems like it would have caused a stir in here. I do remember the GFS previously thought the metros were getting a blizzard 9 days before this past weekend too.   So they all have their faults.  

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14 minutes ago, stormy said:

The GFS is very fast in pushing the boundary south with no real support from the ECM, GEM or ICON.

I have very low confidence in that solution or is that wishful wish casting after nearly $5000 tree damage from the severe icestorm of November 15, 2018.

This storm definitely is a good test for the new GFS, seeing it go up against the other globals and even have two runs back to back with an significant ice storm while the others show nothing definitely puts it at odds with the majority for now. So I guess we will see if the GFS is sniffing out a trend or just sniffing glue.

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4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

This storm definitely is a good test for the new GFS, seeing it go up against the other globals and even have two runs back to back with an significant ice storm while the others show nothing definitely puts it at odds with the majority for now. So I guess we will see if the GFS is sniffing out a trend or just sniffing glue.

I too have been very impressed with the GFS this winter.  This is one time I hope it is high on glue or just goofy!  18z will be telling. Will it sober up or continue leading the way again?

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

For the record, the 12z EPS Control is a fair bit colder than 00z and 06z. The EPS as a whole is as well, but we definitely need more.

12z EPS mean

1644019200-nRtv4LdCG8k.png

06z EPS mean

1644019200-7qK4kZIL3yk.png

The precip is (mostly) gone by 0Z, even on the mean, so we'd need more and faster. But maybe that was your point. Seems to me the follow-on event would be more worthwhile to track per the Euro. 

I do struggle with buying into any cold-chasing-moisture events, but this does look a little different, so who knows. 

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11 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

The precip is (mostly) gone by 0Z, even on the mean, so we'd need more and faster. But maybe that was your point. Seems to me the follow-on event would be more worthwhile to track per the Euro. 

I do struggle with buying into any cold-chasing-moisture events, but this does look a little different, so who knows. 

I sorta meant the original storm so I went back and added maps from 6 hours earlier the moment before you quoted me -- but it does matter for both storms.

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I'M looking at LWX's forecast for DCA.

It says chance of rain Thursday, stronger Thursday night, less rain Friday as temperatures fall from the mid-50s but rain should be out of here by sunset at about 40 degrees before we plunge into the cold box again. No hint of winter precip in the UHI.

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1 minute ago, arlwx said:

I'M looking at LWX's forecast for DCA.

It says chance of rain Thursday, stronger Thursday night, less rain Friday as temperatures fall from the mid-50s but rain should be out of here by sunset at about 40 degrees before we plunge into the cold box again. No hint of winter precip in the UHI.

Yeah, because as well all know, it's prudent to mention a significant ice storm 90 hours out when only one model is showing it.  

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3 minutes ago, arlwx said:

I'M looking at LWX's forecast for DCA.

It says chance of rain Thursday, stronger Thursday night, less rain Friday as temperatures fall from the mid-50s but rain should be out of here by sunset at about 40 degrees before we plunge into the cold box again. No hint of winter precip in the UHI.

not for DCA, but

D5_WinterThreat.png

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