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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, dallen7908 said:

Well then perhaps you should change your user name.  

I don't recall a major ice storm here since 1994.  Much different story for many others in this forum

This is meaningless but one of our biggest snow falls in the last 30-years was forecast to be freezing rain 5 days out.  

2003, really? 

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5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

One interesting difference between the 12z NAM/GFS and 06z Euro is the 00z Friday temps.  Mid-40s from the American guidance while mid-50s from the Europeans.

pffffffft what do they know?  I believe in red, white and blue.  Murica

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2 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Euro still made a significant shift south. At this point, that's all I'm looking for.

 

The difference between the Euro and the GFS has a significant effect on precip type for our area. But at this range the difference is not more than noise. If the models show this divergence on Wednesday then the forecast becomes a challenge. What else is new lol

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Depending on how much snow you’re dead-set on, you’re gonna need at least a couple hundred miles’ shift SE. Even more if you’re holding out hope to get the Thursday night stuff rather than just a small Friday piece. Can’t say it’s impossible, but I’m near the point of rooting for the euro solution over getting stuck so close yet so far with an ice storm, just to avoid that nightmare of a commute for myself and everyone else.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Your mention of the high being in Quebec sent me scurrying back to the model to look. At 90 hours gfs has surface winds out of the north that gradually begin to veer to the northeast. That’s big. Now you have cold pushing in and starting to bank against the Apps. At 850, northeasterly winds are just to our north. And I mean barely. Get those a little south of us and now snow appears as an outcome.

Model has really been adjusting last several cycles here to equate for the HP up top. That’s what I’m looking at next couple days here, as to whether or not that high gets even stronger or if it ends up sinking south some and really setting the stage for a nasty ip/zr event. 

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