Buddy1987 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: I know I am late to the party. Busy day at work. But like I was saying yesterday I dont see anything cutting into that 1050 HP. The models appear to be getting a grip on that part of it now. I would expect the boundary to come even further south if the HP is being modelled correctly. At least that my take on it. I was literally just thinking the same thing. By hour 90 it’s still modeled to be at 1045 up in Quebec. Still good enough position, esp for our areas next to the apps. That is stout! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 29 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Oh cool, Boston gets another 2 feet There we go. Was waiting on my Boston update 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There we go. Was waiting on my Boston update We're going to steal it from them. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We're going to steal it from them. Good, bring it to papa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I hope we all know that the Euro is gonna suck, right? So don't expect any joy or changes in that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 49 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is the perfect setup for it though. CAD usually either is deep enough for sleet or warms so fast that we go rain. This is a brick wall of cold Can't you make it snow instead? sleet, freezing rain? BLAH no thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: I hope we all know that the Euro is gonna suck, right? So don't expect any joy or changes in that. Agreed, leave it to the GFS to whiff on one that shows a positive trend and wintry outcome. No doubts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I was literally just thinking the same thing. By hour 90 it’s still modeled to be at 1045 up in Quebec. Still good enough position, esp for our areas next to the apps. That is stout! Your mention of the high being in Quebec sent me scurrying back to the model to look. At 90 hours gfs has surface winds out of the north that gradually begin to veer to the northeast. That’s big. Now you have cold pushing in and starting to bank against the Apps. At 850, northeasterly winds are just to our north. And I mean barely. Get those a little south of us and now snow appears as an outcome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Can't you make it snow instead? sleet, freezing rain? BLAH no thanks. I’m trying MG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: I hope we all know that the Euro is gonna suck, right? So don't expect any joy or changes in that. Maybe it will trend back to what it had 5-6 runs ago, when it looked good and the GFS sucked. Now the GFS looks more like the Euro did, and vice-versa. They really need to get their shit together. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hope we all know that the Euro is gonna suck, right? So don't expect any joy or changes in that. It need time to assimilate GFS output into its data set. In other words, the euro waits for the gfs to tell it what to do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The event after the frontal wave took a nice step forward at h5. Vort much farther south instead of west of us. that's the one i'm interested in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hope we all know that the Euro is gonna suck, right? So don't expect any joy or changes in that. Positive vibes only in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We're going to steal it from them. Why does this kind of remind me of the St Patty's Day storm of 2014? Seems somewhat similar, and we stole that one. It was way north with the frozen then kept coming south until it was ours. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Why does this kind of remind me of the St Patty's Day storm of 2014? Seems somewhat similar, and we stole that one. It was way north with the frozen then kept coming south until it was ours. Erotic posting here ^^ 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Having been in high school when two ice storms hit DC area in January 1994, I can tell you I want no part of that again. Snowstorm or bust! i was in hs at the time as well...it looked like siberia outside. they can be cool minus the power outages. i'm mostly just blowing smoke in regards to tracking, but i'm ready for a forum wide snowstorm that doesn't include sharp gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 So, in a year where we miss on the coastal, the big ice storm will verify? Seems about right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m trying MG try harder dammit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: So, in a year where we miss on the coastal, the big ice storm will verify? Seems about right. I'd be super nervous if i lived where you do for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Cobb output from GFS at DCA shows the freezing rain beginning at 10Z (5 AM on Friday) on the 4th and ending at 00Z on the 5th (7 PM on Friday). 0.4" with the temperature below 29 degrees. 0.1" with the temperature below 26 degrees. At Dulles the freezing rain would begin at 8Z (3 AM on Friday) and end at the same time as DCA. 0.6" with temperatures of <29 degrees; almost 0.5" with temperatures below 26 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, 87storms said: that's the one i'm interested in. Is that the Sunday night thing? Last week it had a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 19 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: So, in a year where we miss on the coastal, the big ice storm will verify? Seems about right. You are a bundle of joy! eta: I am digging the GFS. Back-to-back ice storms, a little snowstorm on the 10th, a little snow on the 13th, and another wave approaching at the end of the run. Hopefully another model or ensemble latches on to one of these threats and gives us something to legit track!! Hard to be pessimistic here as I just had 28.5" in January when my climo is 24" for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 59 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm calling sleet bomb ala VD 2007 I remember that event vividly. Our area,10 miles west of Short Pump got 4-5” of pure sleet. You could barely walk or drive in it. Stuck around for ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'd be super nervous if i lived where you do for this one That's my worry. And supposed to go out of town this weekend. Which of course would be an issue for the pets if the ice storm verifies. Ugh - I don't do ice. Let's just start the thread now so we can remove any doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Why are we always stuck on the wrong side of the boundary? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: Is that the Sunday night thing? Last week it had a big snowstorm. yea, still needs work, but there's cold air in place (though how long it stays in place is tbd). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'm really surprised by what I've seen from the guidance so far today, as while the GFS is documented to do a poor job with shallow cold air masses, it's usually *slow* to bring them in. Seeing the GFS be faster than other guidance with the arrival of the cold into our area is not what I expected to see. The bottom line is that I need to see another model show the same idea before I'm going to get anything close to being on board. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Analfront precip and marginal cold on the GFS 5 days out.. where do I place my bets? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Yeoman said: Analfront precip I'm gonna let RavensRule handle this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: That's my worry. And supposed to go out of town this weekend. Which of course would be an issue for the pets if the ice storm verifies. Ugh - I don't do ice. Let's just start the thread now so we can remove any doubt Well then perhaps you should change your user name. I don't recall a major ice storm here since 1994. Much different story for many others in this forum This is meaningless but one of our biggest snow falls in the last 30-years was forecast to be freezing rain 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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