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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, clskinsfan said:

I know I am late to the party. Busy day at work. But like I was saying yesterday I dont see anything cutting into that 1050 HP. The models appear to be getting a grip on that part of it now. I would expect the boundary to come even further south if the HP is being modelled correctly. At least that my take on it. 

I was literally just thinking the same thing. By hour 90 it’s still modeled to be at 1045 up in Quebec. Still good enough position, esp for our areas next to the apps. That is stout! 

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49 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is the perfect setup for it though. CAD usually either is deep enough for sleet or warms so fast that we go rain. This is a brick wall of cold

Can't you make it snow instead? sleet, freezing rain? BLAH no thanks. 

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I was literally just thinking the same thing. By hour 90 it’s still modeled to be at 1045 up in Quebec. Still good enough position, esp for our areas next to the apps. That is stout! 

Your mention of the high being in Quebec sent me scurrying back to the model to look. At 90 hours gfs has surface winds out of the north that gradually begin to veer to the northeast. That’s big. Now you have cold pushing in and starting to bank against the Apps. At 850, northeasterly winds are just to our north. And I mean barely. Get those a little south of us and now snow appears as an outcome.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I hope we all know that the Euro is gonna suck, right?  So don't expect any joy or changes in that.

Maybe it will trend back to what it had 5-6 runs ago, when it looked good and the GFS sucked. Now the GFS looks more like the Euro did, and vice-versa. They really need to get their shit together.

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14 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Having been in high school when two ice storms hit DC area in January 1994, I can tell you I want no part of that again. Snowstorm or bust!

i was in hs at the time as well...it looked like siberia outside.  they can be cool minus the power outages.  i'm mostly just blowing smoke in regards to tracking, but i'm ready for a forum wide snowstorm that doesn't include sharp gradients.

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Cobb output from GFS at DCA shows the freezing rain beginning at 10Z (5 AM on Friday) on the 4th and ending at 00Z on the 5th (7 PM on Friday).  0.4" with the temperature below 29 degrees.  0.1" with the temperature below 26 degrees.

At Dulles the freezing rain would begin at 8Z (3 AM on Friday) and end at the same time as DCA.  0.6" with temperatures of <29 degrees; almost 0.5" with temperatures below 26 degrees. 

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19 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

So, in a year where we miss on the coastal, the big ice storm will verify? Seems about right.

 

You are a bundle of joy!:sun:

eta: I am digging the GFS.  Back-to-back ice storms, a little snowstorm on the 10th, a little snow on the 13th, and another wave approaching at the end of the run.  Hopefully another model or ensemble latches on to one of these threats and gives us something to legit track!!  Hard to be pessimistic here as I just had 28.5" in January when my climo is 24" for the season

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7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'd be super nervous if i lived where you do for this one

That's my worry. And supposed to go out of town this weekend. Which of course would be an issue for the pets if the ice storm verifies. Ugh - I don't do ice. Let's just start the thread now so we can remove any doubt :mellow:

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I'm really surprised by what I've seen from the guidance so far today, as while the GFS is documented to do a poor job with shallow cold air masses, it's usually *slow* to bring them in.    Seeing the GFS be faster than other guidance with the arrival of the cold into our area is not what I expected to see.      The bottom line is that I need to see another model show the same idea before I'm going to get anything close to being on board.

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3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

That's my worry. And supposed to go out of town this weekend. Which of course would be an issue for the pets if the ice storm verifies. Ugh - I don't do ice. Let's just start the thread now so we can remove any doubt :mellow:

Well then perhaps you should change your user name.  

I don't recall a major ice storm here since 1994.  Much different story for many others in this forum

This is meaningless but one of our biggest snow falls in the last 30-years was forecast to be freezing rain 5 days out.  

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