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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Also, for anyone reading my last post, I don’t explcitly think this is a slam dunk. I will say the ingredients are there for an ice event for the sub. I’m actually curious to see the NAM 3km as it gets closer. It does well with these air masses. Not so much the precip, but I want to see how it handles the temps. 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Also, for anyone reading my last post, I don’t explcitly think this is a slam dunk. I will say the ingredients are there for an ice event for the sub. I’m actually curious to see the NAM 3km as it gets closer. It does well with these air masses. Not so much the precip, but I want to see how it handles the temps. 

how often do we see rain turn into ice storms with the cold arriving...seems like they usually occur with CAD already in place and we are waiting for it to erode.  interesting nonetheless

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

how often do we see rain turn into ice storms with the cold arriving...seems like they usually occur with CAD already in place and we are waiting for it to erode.  interesting nonetheless

It would take some time for the surface to drop for the ability to accrete, but the cold advertised wouldn’t take long. The airmass leading in is mild, but it kind of scales back overnight and then the hammer drops on Friday AM. Seen it go from 55 to 30 in Midland and ice started forming in a few hrs after precip started. IF the temps being shown materialized, we wouldn’t be waiting too long for things to ice up. DC might cuz of UHI effects, but burbs would switch. Flash freeze could occur as well once the temp dips below 26. 

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34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is the perfect setup for it though. CAD usually either is deep enough for sleet or warms so fast that we go rain. This is a brick wall of cold

Best ice events are almost always on the front side of deep cold. More typical is on the retreat. That stuff fizzles from an impact standpoint. Accreting ice when temps and dews are dropping is the way. We don't see it too often but it def happens and when it does it looks like the gfs

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I know I am late to the party. Busy day at work. But like I was saying yesterday I dont see anything cutting into that 1050 HP. The models appear to be getting a grip on that part of it now. I would expect the boundary to come even further south if the HP is being modelled correctly. At least that my take on it. 

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