mattie g Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 So I guess the GEFS likes the idea of an ice storm. Interesting, but meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: A snapshot of the GEFS: Lot of ice solutions in there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Meh. I'm still on the fence. We don't do big nasty ice around here very well. This is the perfect setup for it though. CAD usually either is deep enough for sleet or warms so fast that we go rain. This is a brick wall of cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sarcasm yall. Someone gets me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Someone gets me Dude, we've always been Simpatico. annoyed by the same people/things, etc. It's that PeeGee county in us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Key takeaway here is the gfs is progressing the cold. If you want snow, the further it progresses the deeper the cold gets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Someone gets me I get you, but your statement is also usually true. Just thought I’d throw out hope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Can y’all stop post please? I have work to do. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Pretty significant slug of moisture coming through here. A fair chunk of this is antecedent rain Thursday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Also, for anyone reading my last post, I don’t explcitly think this is a slam dunk. I will say the ingredients are there for an ice event for the sub. I’m actually curious to see the NAM 3km as it gets closer. It does well with these air masses. Not so much the precip, but I want to see how it handles the temps. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: Pretty significant slug of moisture coming through here. A fair chunk of this is antecedent rain Thursday though. This is what to look at instead, 24 hour acc precip from hr 90 to 114 (NW zones go below freezing after hour 87 or so, by 90 its across the ICC-w of fall line crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'm calling sleet bomb ala VD 2007 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Also, for anyone reading my last post, I don’t explcitly think this is a slam dunk. I will say the ingredients are there for an ice event for the sub. I’m actually curious to see the NAM 3km as it gets closer. It does well with these air masses. Not so much the precip, but I want to see how it handles the temps. how often do we see rain turn into ice storms with the cold arriving...seems like they usually occur with CAD already in place and we are waiting for it to erode. interesting nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: how often do we see rain turn into ice storms with the cold arriving...seems like they usually occur with CAD already in place and we are waiting for it to erode. interesting nonetheless It would take some time for the surface to drop for the ability to accrete, but the cold advertised wouldn’t take long. The airmass leading in is mild, but it kind of scales back overnight and then the hammer drops on Friday AM. Seen it go from 55 to 30 in Midland and ice started forming in a few hrs after precip started. IF the temps being shown materialized, we wouldn’t be waiting too long for things to ice up. DC might cuz of UHI effects, but burbs would switch. Flash freeze could occur as well once the temp dips below 26. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 CWG is predicting a cold and snowy February. Book it. Winter isn’t over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: This is what to look at instead, 24 hour acc precip from hr 90 to 114 (NW zones go below freezing after hour 87 or so, by 90 its across the ICC-w of fall line crew. Oh cool, Boston gets another 2 feet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: CWG is predicting a cold and snowy February. Book it. Winter isn’t over. Kinda surprised they went all in on that...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Is there a form I can complete to opt out of ice storms? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, diatae said: Is there a form I can complete to opt out of ice storms? Yes. See Phineas for instructions! 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 29 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm calling sleet bomb ala VD 2007 lol I agree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 30 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: This is what to look at instead, 24 hour acc precip from hr 90 to 114 (NW zones go below freezing after hour 87 or so, by 90 its across the ICC-w of fall line crew. Nice little mini Boston jack for good measure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is the perfect setup for it though. CAD usually either is deep enough for sleet or warms so fast that we go rain. This is a brick wall of cold Best ice events are almost always on the front side of deep cold. More typical is on the retreat. That stuff fizzles from an impact standpoint. Accreting ice when temps and dews are dropping is the way. We don't see it too often but it def happens and when it does it looks like the gfs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, diatae said: Is there a form I can complete to opt out of ice storms? one thing is certain, i'm not spending all week tracking an ice storm lol. if this trends towards snow, i'm in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 UKMET sucks for the IceStorm2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: A snapshot of the GEFS: Only 8 have rain instead of frozen, pretty decent odds on the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: UKMET sucks for the IceStorm2020 Exactly where we want it. Either that or in the trash. One or the other 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: UKMET sucks for the IceStorm2022 Seeing how that model showed 16” of snow over me yesterday I don’t put much stock in it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: one thing is certain, i'm not spending all week tracking an ice storm lol. if this trends towards snow, i'm in. Having been in high school when two ice storms hit DC area in January 1994, I can tell you I want no part of that again. Snowstorm or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The event after the frontal wave took a nice step forward at h5. Vort much farther south instead of west of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I know I am late to the party. Busy day at work. But like I was saying yesterday I dont see anything cutting into that 1050 HP. The models appear to be getting a grip on that part of it now. I would expect the boundary to come even further south if the HP is being modelled correctly. At least that my take on it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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