The Ole Bucket Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I realize it's outside our geo, but taken at face value, that's an insane icestorm at the AR/MO/KY/TN borders. And really across a broad stretch of KY along I-64. Holy smokes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 @WinterWxLuvr calls it again, and I always doubt this man. I'll learn at some point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Looks like almost an inch of freezing rain for the I95 corridor… big yikes. Could wreck evening commutes. Edit: and morning commutes too potentially but hopefully it won’t be piling up on the warm end of the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, The Ole Bucket said: I realize it's outside our geo, but taken at face value, that's an insane icestorm at the AR/MO/KY/TN borders. And really across a broad stretch of KY along I-64. Holy smokes. Kentucky has had a few big ones, I remember the one in the early 2010's that was insane there. Crippled them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: GFS gives me 9/10ths of an inch of ice, would be a devastating ice event if that happens. Heck even half of that amount would be a huge ice storm. This is the one time okay with that CHO hole showing up on maps -- ice is an F tier weather event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: GFS gives me 9/10ths of an inch of ice, would be a devastating ice event if that happens. Heck even half of that amount would be a huge ice storm. While I don't agree fully with a certain semi-interloper poster who comes in and shits on the mood of the forum regarding ice, I do think ice storm impacts are model overly aggressively. That said, this would be a moderate ice storm for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, baltosquid said: Looks like almost an inch of freezing rain for the I95 corridor… big yikes. Could wreck evening commutes. ^ For 3 days maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: This is the one time okay with that CHO hole showing up on maps -- ice is an F tier weather event. I like exciting winter weather, so I'll take it. Do I prefer it, nah...but it's better than tracking rain. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: While I don't agree fully with a certain semi-interloper poster who comes in and shits on the mood of the forum regarding ice, I do think ice storm impacts are model overly aggressively. That said, this would be a moderate ice storm for the area. As modeled that would accrete super well, especially NW but even in the cities. Temps in the mid/upper 20s and not coming down too hard. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: ^ For 3 days maybe Thank goodness 2 of those days would be the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Kentucky has had a few big ones, I remember the one in the early 2010's that was insane there. Crippled them. Yeah they really get the bad end of these kinds of events and are starting to really take it on the chin from tornadoes too. Oh also, if this run of the GFS verifies, this would be the 2nd-largest single-storm snowfall in St. Louis history. Only surpassed by one in 1890. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 well that's interesting... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2022013112&fh=90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Can any met tell me any reason why we could get a mostly snow scenario out of this, or is this our "max" potential....a skating rink? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 WB 12Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: While I don't agree fully with a certain semi-interloper poster who comes in and shits on the mood of the forum regarding ice, I do think ice storm impacts are model overly aggressively. That said, this would be a moderate ice storm for the area. Tends to happen, it has me get .6 inches of ice in 6 hours during the heavy precip which seems wrong, so that amount should not really be counted. After the precip becomes lighter and the temps drop is the more concerning period for me, and gives me around .3 to .4 more ice. So even discounting the heavy ice in the 30s it would still be quite the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS has another storm right after 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Talk about a low level cold air push. Northern tier goes below freezing a few hours before 6z friday. If there's any set up than can produce severe icing it's this one. We'll see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just toggle the last four gfs runs at 90 and 96 hours. That’s all that needs to be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 I’m not on board until the UKIE shows it 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Can any met tell me any reason why we could get a mostly snow scenario out of this, or is this our "max" potential....a skating rink? Just a weenie but there's a bread and butter way here. Right now the drape is getting sweet but vertically, the cold literally has too much angle. Coldest air at the surface then lags as you go up. There is no reason right now to think its impossible to get the mids to cooperate. Gfs looks close enough for 3-4 days. No room to go backwards tho. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just toggle the last four gfs runs at 90 and 96 hours. That’s all that needs to be said. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 For once I’mhappy to be living NW of DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty ugly looking CAD signal showing up for that too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Talk about a low level cold air push. Northern tier goes below freezing a few hours before 6z friday. If there's any set up than can produce severe icing it's this one. We'll see. the last severe ice we had was early Feb 2014 before the bigger storm mid-month. About a quarter inch or so at my place, power out for a day or two. Tons of tree damage. Ill pass lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Not quite a foot of ice but an inch would work for some free entertainment 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 We gotta get that clock right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Well things have certainly changed since yesterday, and theres a high impact winter storm modeled to start in parts of our forum in <90 hrs according to the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Not quite a foot of ice but an inch would work for some free entertainment You've been harping on the front alignment, and you can't hate what the GFS is doing. IF, and its a big if, it continues moving like it has the last 4-5 runs, there is definitely the potential to get some snow in the party with this one. Parts of the precip are falling into low-mid 20's air, would be a really nasty icing event verbatim. A 1-2 punch would help the snow piece. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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