WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Violently agree. It’s the long range version of the NAM. And nobody start posting those GD score stats. Idc Well to be fair, those stats only tell how well each model does at predicting that there’s actually an atmosphere on this planet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: Cold chasing rain on the 6z EPS. A map or two woulda been awesome. Lol. A temp map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Let's see if Randy can will this back for the 12z suite today.. GFS has maybe decided to take the charge. Off topic... no pun intended, but I took a gander at the off topic section of the forum. Safe to say I'm never going back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 26 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I hope the usual suspects don't get too bogged down with the over analysis of why it won't happen and perhaps spend a few minutes on how it possibly could happen....no harm in having a realistic level of positive analysis every once in awhile vs always saying "well historically it doesn't work out so F it so it won't happen now" and posting that every 10 minutes. Go play in the street if that's what you feel and let the positive vibes shine during our last month of winter......damn clowns Personally, I think its a mistake to ignore how the front evolves in hopes of something more promising in the mid/long range. Thing is, the way that front orients itself and moves determines the "next" event. At the same time part of the front is starting to get that "draped" look instead of a giant hill. That can work here. Sure, not much time blah blah but it's one of our ways and you can't write it off until it's figured out universally 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Personally, I think its a mistake to ignore how the front evolves in hopes of something more promising in the mid/long range. Thing is, the way that front orients itself and moves determines the "next" event. At the same time part of the front is starting to get that "draped" look instead of a giant hill. That can work here. Sure, not much time blah blah but it's one of our ways and you can't write it off until it's figured out universally ICON and GFS are gradually evolving that front to more e/w IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: A map or two woulda been awesome. Lol. A temp map With the 6 hour panels and no p-type maps, this is what can be gleaned- A handful of members have a coating of snow for parts of the region, thus the overall mean is 0.1 -0.2" for that period. Up your way looking at surface and 850 temps, and the 6 hour precip panels, it is conceivable (per this run) you could see a few hours of freezing/frozen. Probably too much analysis for a mean at this range and given the brief period of opportunity as depicted. Big picture is it looks like the precip is exiting as the colder air comes in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON and GFS are gradually evolving that front to more e/w IMO. Haven't looked close so this could be bad analysis but it looked like both models are keying on a height press/hp pushing down on the top of the front. Wish it didn't have to move so far to make it interesting but cold air pressing downwards is a helluva lot better than pushing from the side 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Haven't looked close so this could be bad analysis but it looked like both models are keying on a height press/hp pushing down on the top of the front. Wish it didn't have to move to far but cold air pressing downwards is a helluva lot better than pushing from the side Yes. TPV in the Hudson Bay/Baffin area pressing more on the 6z GFS than previous runs. One run doesn’t make a trend, so let’s see how 12z does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Yes. TPV in the Hudson Bay/Baffin area pressing more on the 6z GFS than previous runs. One run doesn’t make a trend, so let’s see how 12z does. Hard to envision enough time as is to get the mass of cold down far enough to do anything with precip mass. However, bend that front and stretch things a little and it could break down into 2 waves. Rain, drape, snow. Need that drape tho. Maybe 12z keeps going 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yes. TPV in the Hudson Bay/Baffin area pressing more on the 6z GFS than previous runs. One run doesn’t make a trend, so let’s see how 12z does. Most important run of the GFS since 5am coming up. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Hard to envision enough time as is to get the mass of cold down far enough to do anything with precip mass. However, bend that front and stretch things a little and it could break down into 2 waves. Rain, drape, snow. Need that drape tho. Maybe 12z keeps going I think this is what we need. A second wave to keep the precip going behind the front. Otherwise it mostly occurs in the warm sector then the cold comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 30 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Let's see if Randy can will this back for the 12z suite today.. GFS has maybe decided to take the charge. Off topic... no pun intended, but I took a gander at the off topic section of the forum. Safe to say I'm never going back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 In case anybody cares, NAM is a bit more progressive with the front/freezing line vs 6z. Nothing O face worthy, but you can def tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In case anybody cares, NAM is a bit more progressive with the front/freezing line vs 6z. Nothing O face worthy, but you can def tell. That’s a 75-100 mile push at 850. That’s not at all insignificant in this setup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 52 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Let's see if Randy can will this back for the 12z suite today.. GFS has maybe decided to take the charge. Off topic... no pun intended, but I took a gander at the off topic section of the forum. Safe to say I'm never going back. you weren't kidding. it was tempting to contribute, but wisdom got the best of me lol. these discussions often times just end up going down a rabbit hole. fwiw, i'm kind of in the middle when it comes to "topics since early 2020". back to the weather...the late weekend system is kind of doing what i was thinking would be the way to get something to work here and that's have a shortwave right on the heels of a cold shot. 500 looked a bit north, but looks like other opps thereafter. this might be a good week to let the chips fall for thursday, focus on work/life, and regroup for the next phase of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a 75-100 mile push at 850. That’s not at all insignificant in this setup. In this kind of setup, are we looking for the confluence to press a bit more and for the heights to decrease? I also assume we'd like to see that shortwave hold back a bit longer to allow the cold air to press before the energy ejects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a 75-100 mile push at 850. That’s not at all insignificant in this setup. Correct...noticeable..but not O face worthy...that'll be when it drops down 12 hours sooner than where it is now at that time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GOA High, La Nina pattern, +NPH, Feb 1-15 ^recent vsince 2000 1998-counter, all analogs for March. Same pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 ICON @ 12z wants to continue draping the front more E to W, out to 84 its doing that more so than 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 ICON SUCKS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 ICON would be big ice issues for the NW part of the forum, has subfreezing NW of the fall line and moderate precip hrs 90-93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 More long range research.. +NPH is a ENSO pattern, +NOI, Feb 1-17 Mar Apr Jun Jul 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 RGEM is status quo..if anything was a hair north of it's 6z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I gotta find a way to limit the number of maps in one post. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 41 minutes ago, mattie g said: In this kind of setup, are we looking for the confluence to press a bit more and for the heights to decrease? I also assume we'd like to see that shortwave hold back a bit longer to allow the cold air to press before the energy ejects. I’m not necessarily a good source but yes I keep watching heights hoping for a decrease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: RGEM is status quo..if anything was a hair north of it's 6z position. Trash model. ICON was noticeably further south and more e/w aligned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I think this is what we need. A second wave to keep the precip going behind the front. Otherwise it mostly occurs in the warm sector then the cold comes in. The 06 GFS and 00 GEM is hinting at this scenario while the ECM makes a clean sweep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 24 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: ICON @ 12z wants to continue draping the front more E to W, out to 84 its doing that more so than 6z. until we're at 8:45 to 2:45 I'm still out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS slightly further SE with front/cold. Not jump for joy move, but noticeable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS looks like its gonna be a bit more south and E&W with the boundary based on early looks at h54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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