Solution Man Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Let’s make sure we don’t conjure our favorites up….won’t mention names Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: it's only Tuesday so I suppose the potential is for a further sinking of the freeze line. interesting again Slow that low and let that cold sink in and we may end up talking about some snow too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I know. I know. Not until Connecticut Ave caves Wait...oh hell, i thought that was a progression of the same model. It's a comparison of prior runs. Ok, I'm a bit more interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Now I know what I'm getting for dinner. Thanks! 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I could see another full cave by the euro coming You did lead the way with the Friday event so far, so you don't want to ruin your current track record which means that this Sunday threat must be credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Wait...oh hell, i thought that was a progression of the same model. It's a comparison of prior runs. Ok, I'm a bit more interested. It's definitely got the low level cold now. The interest will be timing and rate of precip. Light precip with falling temps would create some serious skating on the roads potential. Hell, Bob could skate around Rockville with this setup. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 20 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yesterday's 12z run had DC at 58 degrees 7am Friday, today's 12z has DC at 35 degrees 7am Friday. I'd say that's a dramatic shift by the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, Solution Man said: That’s a full bow down to King GFS Fyp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: It's definitely got the low level cold now. The interest will be timing and rate of precip. Light precip with falling temps would create some serious skating on the roads potential. Hell, Bob could skate around Rockville with this setup. Hard to kick cute bunnies when you're sliding around! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, MillvilleWx said: It's definitely got the low level cold now. The interest will be timing and rate of precip. Light precip with falling temps would create some serious skating on the roads potential. Hell, Bob could skate around Rockville with this setup. Even without significant precip with cold temps we would still most likely see a flash freeze on most wet surfaces due to the crashing temperatures. Looks to be disruptive with or without precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Slow that low and let that cold sink in and we may end up talking about some snow too. for you maybe...but I like where it's headed...also making me think Sunday is more plausible if Euro is ticking toward the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Main difference i see between the Euro and GFS for the Sunday thing is the NS sw coming in through the NW. GFS is slower and dives behind the southern vort. Euro sends it in tandem over the top thus not allowing it to amplify. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: It's definitely got the low level cold now. The interest will be timing and rate of precip. Light precip with falling temps would create some serious skating on the roads potential. Hell, Bob could skate around Rockville with this setup. Wish we could slow down the ejection of that energy in the southwest by 8-10 hours. Let that cold bleed in and run the precip up and over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Euro also shears out the s/w that just misses on the GFS around D7. Booooooo Euro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Main difference i see between the Euro and GFS for the Sunday thing is the NS sw coming in through the NW. GFS is slower and dives behind the southern vort. Euro sends it in tandem over the top thus not allowing it to amplify. Good catch. I was looking at yesterday's 12z Euro and I realized it was actually the NORTHERN s/w that caused the storm! It sheared out the southern wave (like it does today), but dropped in the northern wave far enough to develop that weak coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I understand this now. this is a loop of the past 5 euro runs. It has trended from a nothing burger to a triple with cheese. interesting to see it like that Thanks for picking that up. I didn’t realize that was what it was showing. It does seem the Euro is trending more frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Dr. No had been replaced with Dr. I Don't Know. 6 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Good catch. I was looking at yesterday's 12z Euro and I realized it was actually the NORTHERN s/w that caused the storm! It sheared out the southern wave (like it does today), but dropped in the northern wave far enough to develop that weak coastal. Take a look at this GIF. Euro was closer to getting that southern vort out in front. That was a huge shift from 0z. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dr. No had been replaced with Dr. I Don't Know. Number 1 post of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The GFS is walking towards the Euro as the Euro runs toward the GFS. Numbers below are for DCA and GFS simulations initialized at 00, 06, and 12 UT Freezing Rain commences: 3 AM, 5 AM, and 7 AM and ends at 7 PM, 7 PM, 3 PM Total freezing rain: 0.60, 0.49, 0.24" % of freezing rain with T < 26: 45%, 0%, 0% % of freezing rain with T < 29: 83%, 75%, 33% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, LP08 said: Main difference i see between the Euro and GFS for the Sunday thing is the NS sw coming in through the NW. GFS is slower and dives behind the southern vort. Euro sends it in tandem over the top thus not allowing it to amplify. Another reason to not go gung-ho just yet. Trying get the vort interaction (probably not a scientific term, lol) was a headache all last month. Don't trust much to nail that down yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Another reason to not go gung-ho just yet. Trying get the vort interaction (probably not a scientific term, lol) was a headache all last month. Don't trust much to nail that down yet. What could go wrong in 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Another reason to not go gung-ho just yet. Trying get the vort interaction (probably not a scientific term, lol) was a headache all last month. Don't trust much to nail that down yet. We shouldn't go gung ho on any threat that's less than a 2-3 days out. This is a really good catch by @LP08, though, and something to keep an eye out for in future runs. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The Euro caved again. And right after DT's no cold prediction. Classic. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: We shouldn't go gung ho on any threat that's less than a 2-3 days out. This is a really good catch by @LP08, though, and something to keep an eye out for in future runs. Sure, logically most of us know we shouldn't...but that was a warning for the weenie psychology part of the brain that doesn't care how far out we we are and already put one foot in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Waaaay too much focus on black and white euro vs gfs. They're both right and wrong and they are both shifting. Don't pit them against each other. Use them both to figure out what's in between. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 For once though; we have the GFS with back to back chances rather then the euro without gfs support at this range. I feel much better this time than having the euro with a storm as the past few chances showed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Another reason to not go gung-ho just yet. Trying get the vort interaction (probably not a scientific term, lol) was a headache all last month. Don't trust much to nail that down yet. Also, there are like a zillion vorts it seems so trying to key on the right one more the a few days out seems difficult. That gif that showed the southern vort go from Amarillo to Texarkana at hour 96 (497 miles, yes I looked it up lol). That to me is a massive shift in a time frame that the euro doesn't usually do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 ICON SUCKS & DT SUCKS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: ICON SUCKS & DT SUCKS 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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