Solution Man Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ok next trash model up….Icon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not even close to the 18z GFS. This model is stupid. (until it shows what we want) Perplexes me how the heights have a completely different orientation than the surface. Thought it would look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 So when the GFS holds serve in an hour and a half, what then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: So when the GFS holds serve in an hour and a half, what then? Go to the next model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 NAM has a high at 1044 that goes to 1036 in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: So when the GFS holds serve in an hour and a half, what then? Go to bed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: So when the GFS holds serve in an hour and a half, what then? Wait patiently for the next set of model runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 NAM also tracks a low straight up the apps. Call me skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: Wait patiently for the next set of model runs Now that I think of it, the two storms that worked out well this year IMBY (not including the blizzard I chased like a goddamn psychopath) I didn’t really check the models or forums beforehand. I had zero clue it was going to snow before the 1/3 storm until the watch was hoisted. Perhaps that’s the move to make Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: NAM also tracks a low straight up the apps. Call me skeptical The middle Atlantic Rule of NAM: 1) if the nam shows a shit solution, it’s likely correct 2) if the nam shows a good solution, it’s incorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: The middle Atlantic Rule of models: 1) if the model shows a shit solution, it’s likely correct 2) if the model shows a good solution, it’s incorrect Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Been busy with work so haven't really tracked this week's event but LWX seemed to hedge against the GFS solution in their forecast discussion - but left the door open with the caveat... Models have in the past been too quick with the cold air in an anafrontal situation but every event isn`t the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Been busy with work so haven't really tracked this week's event but LWX seemed to hedge against the GFS solution in their forecast discussion - but left the door open with the caveat... Models have in the past been too quick with the cold air in an anafrontal situation but every event isn`t the same. certaintly showed that w the debacle a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 ICON took a step back if anyone cares about it. Cold press a little slower, track a little more inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Crippling rain storm? potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Baltimorewx said: ICON took a step back if anyone cares about it. Cold press a little slower, track a little more inland gfs will show all rain in 30 min. Nail in the coffin for this one. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: gfs will show all rain in 30 min. Nail in the coffin for this one. It probably won’t show all rain, but I kind of expect it to slowly cave. We might end as a little mix or something but I find it really hard to believe an all out ice storm or change to snow with a few inches is gonna happen, particularly for the lower elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS very similar to 18z so far, hr 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS very similar to 18z so far, hr 40 agreed. I do notice the slightest bit more tilt N to S on the axis, which could lead to less draping of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS doesn't seem to be backing down...almost twin copy of 18z so far at sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Seems like noise so far, but 0z axis is tilted just a lil more than 18z. otherwise, they remain identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 ok, 66 .if anything the freezing line is a hair south of where it was at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS staring danger in the face with a middle finger so far. Not backing down 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 lol, again...the front is a little more SE than it was at 18z 78 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: lol, again...the front is a little more SE than it was at 18z 78 the only thing more annoying than the GFS folding is the GFS not folding, if you catch my drift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Do I play Jaws only for snow? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Or moderate events? Or just any event, but it has to be snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Further south so far, moderate precip...Freezing line on DC south line. Before, with 18z run, it was north of DC into upper mont. county 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Or moderate events? Or just any event, but it has to be snow? Play it, king says it’s on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 moderate frozen going on at 84. freezing line in St mary's county. 0 850 line in Frederick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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