WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just a weenie but there's a bread and butter way here. Right now the drape is getting sweet but vertically, the cold literally has too much angle. Coldest air at the surface then lags as you go up. There is no reason right now to think its impossible to get the mids to cooperate. Gfs looks close enough for 3-4 days. No room to go backwards tho. Agreed. Could be a snowier outcome but still need a bigger push of cold air and probably a more distinct second wave that keeps precip going after the cold air gets in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Meh....cold chasing precip never works in our area 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Can this keep trending south enough that Richmond and Salisbury get the ice? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Wait, so back to back ice storms? Damn, that escalated quickly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 having the 540 line in toronto probably doesn't help with the mid levels, but it's also an overrunning event as opposed to a wound up storm. seems like this could work, but may want a little separation between waves to allow the cold air to settle in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 So ummmmm, this seems like something I’m gonna have to track eh? This has textbook ice storm for a large swath of the country written all over it. Keep an eye on the progress on the layer between 925-850mb. That layer will be important for designating sleet or ZR for a good chunk of the area. I’ll be here for it…maybe. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: that 1028 HP over Stafford will help hold the cold air in. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Meh....cold chasing precip never works in our area This, we were reminded of that earlier this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: One of the best visuals illustrating how arctic fronts can sometimes work here. Trajectory has really changed into something workable in a few runs. This is right out of the 2013-15 playbook. WAR backs off leading in and the cold dense air forces its way south. Starting off in a bad place with limited time but the door to success is still open. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, mappy said: This, we were reminded of that earlier this month. This is definitely a pretty textbook look for icing in the OV stretching eastward to the MA, as @MillvilleWx just mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Can any met tell me any reason why we could get a mostly snow scenario out of this, or is this our "max" potential....a skating rink? The problem is, we are 4 days away and it isn't even close on any of the models. Most have rain, but the GFS pushes the cold air at the surface much more vigorously. This is a later afternoon Friday sounding from the GFS, which is the coldest of the models. It isn't going to snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Can any met tell me any reason why we could get a mostly snow scenario out of this, or is this our "max" potential....a skating rink? Those 850’s will trail this by a bit. If we can get those then I’d say Richmond would be looking at an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: This is definitely a pretty textbook look for icing in the OV stretching eastward to the MA, as @MillvilleWx just mentioned. we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 We need the Dr. Pepper cold air angle but instead of 10/2/4 we need 8:45/10:45/1:45 Slowly getting there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: We gotta get that clock right Sometimes, a broken model is right twice a day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The Euro did show a nasty winter storm 2 days ago so it's not like this is impossible and other models go to some version of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Those 850’s will trail this by a bit. If we can get those then I’d say Richmond would be looking at an ice storm That little weak low running the gauntlet is a bit too quick and blocks the mids from pressing when we need it. Delay that wave by just 6-12 hours and the front has a much better chance to drape far enough south. The extra synoptic push on the front happens too early. Can't lose sight of the fact that the gfs is kind alone with this trend right now tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: This, we were reminded of that earlier this month. Particularly on January 3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Meh....cold chasing precip never works in our area It’s not chasing it this time. Precip is slamming straight into it. Question is where will the cold be when the slam happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: That little weak low running the gauntlet is a bit too quick and blocks the mids from pressing when we need it. Delay that wave by just 6-12 hours and the front has a much better chance to drape far enough south. The extra synoptic push on the front happens too early. Can't lose sight of the fact that the gfs is kind alone with this trend right now.. Which trend? That wave? Otherwise I think just about all of them are on board with pressing the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, MN Transplant said: The problem is, we are 4 days away and it isn't even close on any of the models. Most have rain, but the GFS pushes the cold air at the surface much more vigorously. This is a later afternoon Friday sounding from the GFS, which is the coldest of the models. It isn't going to snow. This has icy mess written all over it. This arctic shot is no joke. As @Bob Chill alluded to earlier, the backing off of the WAR has been huge for these successive runs of the GFS. Considering the magnitude of the cold being modeled, you gotta think it’ll have the opportunity to cause some serious concerns once the airmass gets here. I think GFS might be a tad fast with the cold considering the density of the expected airmass, but it’ll hit like a hammer and any precip in the area will eventually cause issues. For any in here, take a look at CIPS Historical Analogs around 2pm today to see the latest updates using the current 12z guidance. Could open some light on expectations considering the environment both aloft and at the surface. Great tool. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Whereas the 12z CMC is a step back if you want winter wx and a better aligned front with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Which trend? That wave? Otherwise I think just about all of them are on board with pressing the cold. Gfs has had 4 straight runs and 12z was a very noticeable move. I thought the other guidance was still waffling around and no making progress towards winter wx. I could be waaay wrong. Haven't looked close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 CIPS analogs highlighting several historic ice storm analogs including the Jan 99 storm which was particularly damaging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s not chasing it this time. Precip is slamming straight into it. Question is where will the cold be when the slam happens. 8 minutes ago, mappy said: This, we were reminded of that earlier this month. Sarcasm yall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 A snapshot of the GEFS: 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs has had 4 straight runs and 12z was a very noticeable move. I thought the other guidance was still waffling around and no making progress towards winter wx. I could be waaay wrong. Haven't looked close enough. ICON has been on a pretty steady progression since yesterday. NAM made a move too but it’s the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Sarcasm yall. Meh. I'm still on the fence. We don't do big nasty ice around here very well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: A snapshot of the GEFS: Good support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Meh. I'm still on the fence. We don't do big nasty ice around here very well. Agreed, but I'm way more interested now that the gfs has it. Still don't believe I'm saying that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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