aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: To heavy snow. A boundary that runs from Harrisonburg to DC and east. Temps go from low teens to low 60’s over a distance of 25 miles. LOL I'll say this....it would be cool if it happens, seems pretty unrealistic but it's not like it isn't or hasn't been advertised on a few models now. Fun to track and watch for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Let’s put this out there and be done with it … the UKIE is never right. Use that as the baseline from which you run all experiments. But didn't the Ukie nail that one storm way back in 1782? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'll say this....it would be cool if it happens, seems pretty unrealistic but it's not like it isn't or hasn't been advertised on a few models now. Fun to track and watch for now Reminds me of some of the great ice storms in 1994 where DC was in the low 20s and Richmond in the 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Ice storms haven't really panned out in this area recently. 29 degrees and rain, is rain. Power outages and stuff aren't fun either. Sleet is so boring. Its like snow but accumulates at 1/8th the speed. So Ill pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 31 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: To heavy snow. A boundary that runs from Harrisonburg to DC and east. Temps go from low teens to low 60’s over a distance of 25 miles. LOL That is a strong push of cold on the back end of the wave as advertised. Problem is there isn't much precip left at that time(looking at the GEFS)and what tends to happen, as we well know, is the cold/dry air pushes in and there isn't much lift behind the front. Not to say that there wont be a brief period of sleet/snow at the end, but it looks as though we would need a bit of a second wave along the front to get anything significant. eta- 6z GEFS does suggest several hours of freezing/frozen for some of the area. Trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I am more interested in the wave the GFS is advertising for Sunday night into Monday. Has more promise? If I was a bit north I'd be giddy. Barely get a breather and here it comes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: I am more interested in the wave the GFS is advertising for Sunday night into Monday. Has more promise? If I was a bit north I'd be giddy. Barely get a breather and here it comes again. Ditto. ICON, Euro, and GFS have been off and on with this one. Going to depend on how the gradient plays out and how much energy ejects out of the West, if it is consolidated or sheared, NS CAA push, and timing of said boundaries/waves. But that's like every system...always dependent on the preceding system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But didn't the Ukie nail that one storm way back in 1782? Nope. It was the Christmas storm of 1776. Washington used the data to plan his crossing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6z GFS is loaded with chances. I will take that all day. Let’s make something happen this weekend. It’s only Monday so we have time to pull it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: Crazy You could drive from 20’s to mid 50’s in less time than it would take to finish your Starbucks from the drive through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Nope. It was the Christmas storm of 1776. Washington used the data to plan his crossing Legend has it dial-up was painstakingly slow at the time and they needed to utilize Paul Revere to hand deliver the Ukie maps. Is it true that "The British are Coming" was actually code for "The Ukie is honking"? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The GFS and ICON trended like 200 miles south in one suite for Thursday... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You could drive from 20’s to mid 50’s in less time than it would take to finish your Starbucks from the drive through Yeah Fredericksburg to Manassas 56 to 26….wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The GFS and ICON trended like 200 miles south in one suite for Thursday... Taking the positive weenie approach with this suite and telling myself "it will continue to trend more favorable now that the energy is getting properly sampled".... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS has significant ice for areas NW starting around 6am. Legit or no? Dont think freezing rain will be an issue due to surface temps. Sleet that melts on contact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But didn't the Ukie nail that one storm way back in 1782? Yeah, it was commissioned by George III as a last ditch effort to lure colonial snow weenies back to the British side. Unfortunately for him, it didn't work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 cue @PhineasC to tell us we don't do ice storms around here 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: GFS has significant ice for areas NW starting around 6am. Legit or no? Dont think freezing rain will be an issue due to surface temps. Sleet that melts on contact? I see surface temps quickly dipping into the mid 20s on the GFS. In that case everything would stick no matter how warm it was prior. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: 6z euro? Slight tick SE/flatter. Same with eps and control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: 6z euro? Cold chasing rain on the 6z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, mappy said: cue @PhineasC to tell us we don't do ice storms around here I'm starting to think he's actually an algorithm troll bot. Never breaks character and his schtick is tired, stale, and ineffective. Exactly as you expect from old troll bots all over the webs in need of an update 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: cue @PhineasC to tell us we don't do ice storms around here Phineas is too busy finishing up reading Ted Kaczynsky's manifesto to check into our forum now. He's huddled up in the woods of New Hampshire hiding from the po po 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Phineas is too busy finishing up reading Ted Kaczynsky's manifesto to check into our forum now. He's huddled up in the woods of New Hampshire hiding from the po po Please don’t conjure up this soul 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I hope the usual suspects don't get too bogged down with the over analysis of why it won't happen and perhaps spend a few minutes on how it possibly could happen....no harm in having a realistic level of positive analysis every once in awhile vs always saying "well historically it doesn't work out so F it so it won't happen now" and posting that every 10 minutes. Go play in the street if that's what you feel and let the positive vibes shine during our last month of winter......damn clowns 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z euro? You care? I thought you were GFS4Lyfe now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I hope the usual suspects don't get too bogged down with the over analysis of why it won't happen and perhaps spend a few minutes on how it possibly could happen....no harm in having a realistic level of positive analysis every once in awhile vs always saying "well historically it doesn't work out so F it so it won't happen now" and posting that every 10 minutes. Go play in the street if that's what you feel and let the positive vibes shine during our last month of winter......damn clowns Your plea for such sanity and optimism won't work here. It almost never does. Historically, we just don't do positive vibes for such rare sparks of reason. I mean, you could go back to several years ago, but the setup for that run of sanity was not the same as this one. Now, it's all despair and we don't fare well with those setups! I'll see myself out into the street now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Let’s put this out there and be done with it … the UKIE is never right. Use that as the baseline from which you run all experiments. Violently agree. It’s the long range version of the NAM. And nobody start posting those GD score stats. Idc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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