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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

and not a damn thing comes of it.  I hate the GFS

Alignment of the entire frontal progression doesn't work here basically ever as the gfs shows. Any front aligned steeper than 8am - 2pm on a clock is cold chasing precip. Our window starts at 8am - 2pm angle without a kink in the flow. 8:30am to 2:30pm angle is where warning events start. It's a simple way to look at it but you won't find too many odds beaters inside of that rule of thumb

Eta: developing your own rules of thumb goes a long ways towards developing your own thoughts different than what mid range models show. I mean sure, there could be vigorous wave run a steep boundary and snow. But if the models showed that 5 days out with a steep frontal boundary, it's time to strongly doubt model output. Just one tiny example of unlimited ways to develop your own skills beyond model TV

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ehh boo. Cold rainy this week, it looks like...and not much room for anything behind. Heh, first week in almost a month we won't have anything within 5-7 days to track! But I think we all need the break though...lol

Could track everyday and already did it twice this Sunday if snow is involved

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Alignment of the entire frontal progression doesn't work here basically ever as the gfs shows. Any front aligned steeper than 8am - 2pm on a clock is cold chasing precip. Our window starts at 8am - 2pm angle without a kink in the flow. 8:30am to 2:30pm angle is where warning events start. It's a simple way to look at it but you won't find too many odds beaters inside of that rule of thumb

Eta: developing your own rules of thumb goes a long ways towards developing your own thoughts different than what mid range models show. I mean sure, there could be vigorous wave run a steep boundary and snow. But if the models showed that 5 days out with a steep frontal boundary, it's time to strongly doubt model output. Just one tiny example of unlimited ways to develop your own skills beyond model TV

I'm 100% using this in any future pbp.  I never could figure out how to describe the angle of the front.  Brilliant.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ehh boo. Cold rainy this week, it looks like...and not much room for anything behind. Heh, first week in almost a month we won't have anything within 5-7 days to track! But I think we all need the break though...lol

We don't have a handle on anything behind the front because the front itself has plenty of divergence. We'll get an 8 month break pretty quick here too.. This is winters 7th inning stretch with active shortwaves and cold Canada. Taking a break now goes against weenie dna

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm 100% using this in any future pbp.  I never could figure out how to describe the angle of the front.  Brilliant.

In my head I use angle degrees but good lord that's a tough way to describe a visual. The clock way of looking at it just popped into my head. I like it too!! Except nobody owns analog clocks anymore:lol:

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We don't have a handle on anything behind the front because the front itself has plenty of divergence. We'll get an 8 month break pretty quick here too.. This is winters 7th inning stretch with active shortwaves and cold Canada. Taking a break now goes against weenie dna

Yeah but I mean...we've had active shortwaves for the past month and ain't gotten but one or (or two if you're DC) to work. But of course, this is when you tell me that we were lucky to get anything out of 2 of the 5 and to never throw away other chances...and that more short waves=more spins of the wheel, and we always need multiple chances. How am I doing so far? Lol

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29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ehh boo. Cold rainy this week, it looks like...and not much room for anything behind. Heh, first week in almost a month we won't have anything within 5-7 days to track! But I think we all need the break though...lol

We're in the game.  Doesn't mean we score but we haven't been in a shut out pattern since December. 

December was when you look at ensembles once a day looking for that pattern change  

 

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31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ehh boo. Cold rainy this week, it looks like...and not much room for anything behind. Heh, first week in almost a month we won't have anything within 5-7 days to track! But I think we all need the break though...lol

Nothing’s settled.  Not sure you can declare with confidence it’s “cold rainy this week” and “not much room for anything behind” - a week ago, people were talking about a February torch.  How are those calls working out a week later?

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Nothing’s settled.  Not sure you can declare with confidence it’s “cold rainy this week” and “not much room for anything behind” - a week ago, people were talking about a February torch.  How are those calls working out a week later?

Now as far as the torch is concerned...wasn't that more of a long range pattern prediction? While I do relent on the "not room for anything behind" since that's more Day 7/8 (wasn't referring to anything beyond that, btw)...I just haven't seen much for this week's setup that says anything more than cold rain with snow n + w as depicted on the GFS. And with the UK coming in warmer too...eh, just looks messy. 

But after that, if we can keep playing the boundary wave game I agree we might have a chance to score on one.

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