stormtracker Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nothing remarkably different that 6z..stronger energy off the CA coast. Boring U shape trof in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 No signs of the great overrunning runs of the past. In regards to that, looks like a shit run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Dry as a biscuit from Popeyes through 200 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Overruning threat is dead. There are vorts dropping out of Western Canada...there's a lonely sort of cut off vort in Baja area stumbling and wobbling like a drunk. Still nothing. and boring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 This is a dumb hobby. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Another super cold dump dropping into the US at 228, moisture along the front range out west with vorticity dropping down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Annnnnd we've reached D10 with nary a storm. But, looks like something MAY try to do something after. Which we don't care about because it's all fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So, yeah, cutter is still there..we already knew that...sort of a different look at h5, not radically. Cold front pushes through our area. Serious cold behind it..but we already knew this part We want the cutter further west. Recent runs are further east which pushed the boundary too Far East behind it and doesn’t leave enough wave spacing. Both options still alive. Also the option for any waves after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 One other option I wanted to point out. The end of next week the trough has been trending more strung out. If that continues there could be a threat that what was going to be the cutter becomes multiple weaker waves as the front presses and it’s not an impossible adjustment for that to become a threat if that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One other option I wanted to point out. The end of next week the trough has been trending more strung out. If that continues there could be a threat that what was going to be the cutter becomes multiple weaker waves as the front presses and it’s not an impossible adjustment for that to become a threat if that trend continues. I thought the ICON started to show something like that at the end of it's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Dry as a biscuit from Popeyes through 200Marcus would be proud 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 46 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dry as a biscuit from Popeyes through 200 Marcus would be proud Who? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Who? Lol Some dude that had crows flying all over his screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: One thing I have considered about the last 6 years: 4 of the 6 have been ninas, if I'm not mistaken. (2016-17 & 2017-18 were ninas, right?) Now maybe that's just a random fluke that would explain our recent struggles. Now the 2018-19 weak Nino that wasn't...I'm not sure we can count that. It was so weak that it never "coupled" per se. I am kinda keyed to see if next year is a legit Niño. But like you said, if that won't do it I don't know what will! Think of it like this. Our snow climo has always been and always will be streaky. We will forever sit in multi year periods of depression. It's just how it is. Every decade since the 60s has horrendous periods and compact crazy periods. Half of the compact crazy periods are completely unexpected. 2013-16 stretch was the compact period for the 20teens. 2016 was expected but 2013-15 was an anomaly in a good way. Incredible really. And it will happen again. I have no 8dea what 2020s hold in store for us but we're literally 2 good storms away from this winter being forever remembered as one of the good ones. It's already out of the dud gang. And nothing good was waiting for us thru the entire summer, fall, and Dec. But that's changed... A LOT. All I'm saying is if you look at this particular Jan as a frustrating disappointment you're either a glutton for punishment or aren't playing the game right. When a 1 in 10 or 20 year winter is the only way to be rewarded with this hobby, the roi is so bad it makes no sense 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Not doing Euro unless it shows something remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Think of it like this. Our snow climo has always been and always will be streaky. We will forever sit in multi year periods of depression. It's just how it is. Every decade since the 60s has horrendous periods and compact crazy periods. Half of the compact crazy periods are completely unexpected. 2013-16 stretch was the compact period for the 20teens. 2016 was expected but 2013-15 was an anomaly in a good way. Incredible really. And it will happen again. I have no 8dea what 2020s hold in store for us but we're literally 2 good storms away from this winter being forever remembered as one of the good ones. It's already out of the dud gang. And nothing good was waiting for us thru the entire summer, fall, and Dec. But that's changed... A LOT. All I'm saying is if you look at this particular Jan as a frustrating disappointment you're either a glutton for punishment or aren't playing the game right. When a 1 in 10 or 20 year winter is the only way to be rewarded with this hobby, the roi is so bad it makes no sense If I get about what I expect today (1-3"), this month will potentially be the 3rd snowiest month I've had IMBY since 2009-2010! Only topped by January 2016 (duh) and February 2014. Could this month have been greater? Probably. Is it a disappointment? RUcrazy?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Could this month have been greater? Probably. Is it a disappointment? After a +7 October and December, it’s difficult for anyone to honestly suggest we really saw any of this coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If I get about what I expect today (1-3"), this month will potentially be the 3rd snowiest month I've had IMBY since 2009-2010! Only topped by January 2016 (duh) and February 2014. Could this month have been greater? Probably. Is it a disappointment? RUcrazy?? Oh I think it's definitely a disappointment on what it could have been. We've had far too many winters lately where we just miss this and that storm. I get that always happens to some degree and maybe we are paying for that 2009-2016 stretch, but man 2017-2022 has been awful. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If I get about what I expect today (1-3"), this month will potentially be the 3rd snowiest month I've had IMBY since 2009-2010! Only topped by January 2016 (duh) and February 2014. Could this month have been greater? Probably. Is it a disappointment? RUcrazy?? This is a VERY in your backyard query - this is NOT the case north of Baltimore. At. All. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: This is a VERY in your backyard query - this is NOT the case north of Baltimore. At. All. And what have the last few years been like in the Monkton area? You've well made known your disappointment in your snowfall for this year for YBY, but unless we get a decent region-wide event, it's generally north and west that will do better than the rest of us (I mean...take last year for example!). What I'm saying is that just because this year has been quite a good January for some of us doesn't mean that other places with a crap year so far didn't have far better years recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Oh I think it's definitely a disappointment on what it could have been. We've had far too many winters lately where we just miss this and that storm. I get that always happens to some degree and maybe we are paying for that 2009-2016 stretch, but man 2017-2022 has been awful. Yeah, last year for example was an average winter that had the chance to be a blockbuster as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: And what have the last few years been like in the Monkton area? You've well made known your disappointment in your snowfall for this year for YBY, but unless we get a decent region-wide event, it's generally north and west that will do better than the rest of us (I mean...take last year for example!). What I'm saying is that just because this year has been quite a good January for some of us doesn't mean that other places with a crap year so far didn't have far better years recently. Don't know about past the past few years in Monkton. Just moved here in December in part because of snow chances. Probably great in past years but this year...well...I suck at snow. I was in Baltimore for the sadness of missing every big storm since 1/2016 before that. It has NOT been a particularly good year up here so far. We got around .2 on 1/3 when everyone else was cashing in. The cutoff was brutal. Saying "it has been an amazing January" is a backyard game. Not true for all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: One other option I wanted to point out. The end of next week the trough has been trending more strung out. If that continues there could be a threat that what was going to be the cutter becomes multiple weaker waves as the front presses and it’s not an impossible adjustment for that to become a threat if that trend continues. 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: I thought the ICON started to show something like that at the end of it's run. Yeah saw a hint of that on the GFS when I looked more closely. It definitely appears as several waves traveling up the Arctic front as PSU pointed out. Might be interesting to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 So, the Euro and GFS are different at 168. GFS has baja vort stretched out back there, weeble woobling, Euro keeps in moving....and there's a northern stream vort diving down...GFS did the same with the northern vort 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The race is on. The Baja low is slightly out in front...northern stream coming down, but how far? Can it dig? Stay tuned for the next panel of Weather of Our Lives 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I am actually enjoying long range PBP, because we know major changes are likely and it creates more anticipation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 They are probably gonna phase...but maybe too soon? Although there is a vort/trough on the east coast that shouldn't allow the trough to go negative very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Think of how this system evolves. But this time, there's a southern vort...northern vort has a tail but it's about go feed right into the southern vort that is out in front. Cold af. Freezing down to jacksonville. Nobody get your hopes up...i can't tell one way or the other wtf is going to happen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I remember January 2010 was really depressing. We had an epic December (quite unusual), and then just a very cold and boring month (until the end). Then there was February. Not saying this is going to be anything like 2010, but I’m optimistic that winter is not finished with us yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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