Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

Whoooa hold up...TT has some Euro precip panels now? Nice!

[jayyy]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whoooa hold up...TT has some precip panels now? Nice!

Yep! A ton of new euro stuff, new maps, etc. Love the upgrades so far

[dailylurker]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The heck man...I thought this was gonna be simpler dang it? Again??? Can't get a frickin' wave of moisture from the dang south to work right???

Does overrunning easy snow actually happen? I remember that like twice in my life and I'm 43 lol

[Ji]

All i see is miller Bs

[CAPE]

The late next week gradient deal might work out, but I still like the look for the following week.

[Maestrobjwa]

46 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The late next week gradient deal might work out, but I still like the look for the following week.

If we can't get a gradient deal with a bootleg 50/50 how in the world is anything else gonna work...and like, NOT turn into a Miller B? smh

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

All i see is miller Bs

Well duh. All I see is northern stream. If you can figure out how to turn a shortwave that enters the conus around or north of Seattle or Boise into a Miller A please do it. Otherwise, we are who we thought we were

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

All i see is miller Bs

Root for the broad bowl. Northern stream "V" patterns are common AF and so is the outcome here. We can get one or more in any winter month or enso state. They are winter bread and butter in the US. We're in a disadvantaged but not evicted spot for those. All the wish casting in the world won't make a dent in that fact

[Bob Chill]

42 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If we can't get a gradient deal with a bootleg 50/50 how in the world is anything else gonna work...and like, NOT turn into a Miller B? smh

This winter has been damn good so far if you compare it to history here. We all knew this type of predominant pattern was coming. I knew it in July. Lol. But it has overperformed already. Embrace that a little more and let go of low probability dream chasing to compensate. Thank me sometime down the road 

[lpaschall]

39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This winter has been damn good so far if you compare it to history here. We all knew this type of predominant pattern was coming. I knew it in July. Lol. But it has overperformed already. Embrace that a little more and let go of low probability dream chasing to compensate. Thank me sometime down the road 

It has been a little weak up here in Carroll County this year but glad others are cashing in.

[Maestrobjwa]

49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This winter has been damn good so far if you compare it to history here. We all knew this type of predominant pattern was coming. I knew it in July. Lol. But it has overperformed already. Embrace that a little more and let go of low probability dream chasing to compensate. Thank me sometime down the road 

I had already given up on this winter before it started. I almost wanted to start a Winter 2022/23 thread, in fact (almost did) I wanted to completely skip over this winter. But then the January "nina with an stj" pulled me in because I thought the lack of stj was a mian problem in ninas. But no...we had one but the ninas is still Nina-ing. But man, even if you know it's coming, it still sucks to live through weekends like this. And it's been SIX years, dang it...SIX years. Worst lack of deep snow stretch we've been in in years...I can't get a dang warning level event in my yard. This is 6 years of pent up depression and frustration...if it can't happen this year, I sure as heck hope it happens next year.

[North Balti Zen]

17 minutes ago, lpaschall said:

It has been a little weak up here in Carroll County this year but glad others are cashing in.

you don't have to be shy. It has been a LOT weak on the northern tier. 

[Kmlwx]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I had already given up on this winter before it started. I almost wanted to start a Winter 2022/23 thread, in fact (almost did) I wanted to completely skip over this winter. But then the January "nina with an stj" pulled me in because I thought the lack of stj was a mian problem in ninas. But no...we had one but the ninas is still Nina-ing. But man, even if you know it's coming, it still sucks to live through weekends like this. And it's been SIX years, dang it...SIX years. Worst lack of deep snow stretch we've been in in years...I can't get a dang warning level event in my yard. This is 6 years of pent up depression and frustration...if it can't happen this year, I sure as heck hope it happens next year.

I think you may have unrealistic hopes/expectations for DC winters. There have been BAD stretches through the records. 6 years isn't too bad. Sure it sucks - but DC/Balt is NOT a snow region. We go on heaters sometimes, but again, we are not a snow town for the vast majority of years. Even our seasonal snow climo is thrown off by years like 09-10 - so it's not a great judge of "you should expect this each year" 

If you have the means to chase upslope and stuff - that's the way to go. Otherwise you've gotta just enjoy the snow we do get, and track other types of weather while we wait. It's why I'm into severe weather in the spring/summer. Hell...I'll even track wind events. 

Feeling like "we're owed or we're due" for snow is as futile as waiting on the next major tropical system to come through the area. 

It's disheartening at times - but that's why you've gotta just distract yourself with other stuff. Take up hobbies that interest you other than weather and fill the time with them. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Root for the broad bowl. Northern stream "V" patterns are common AF and so is the outcome here. We can get one or more in any winter month or enso state. They are winter bread and butter in the US. We're in a disadvantaged but not evicted spot for those. All the wish casting in the world won't make a dent in that fact

They need to stop with op runs post day 5. Don’t get me wrong the Gfs showing a hit 4 out of 7 runs was indicative of its potent and fun. It’s still not far off now. Ggem too. But the range of permutations ops will bounce around within that lead will still have misses pop up a lot even if it’s a good setup. Once within about 120 hours I’d start to worry if ops are misses. 
 

That said I love the gefs look. Don’t get me wrong I still want to see blocking. If we could keep this pac and get one more round of -NAO beside mid March…we can dream. But if we’re not gonna get any HL help this is the best look we can have for snow.  The gefs snow mean day 6-16 is pretty good also. 
I see multiple chances. 

The day 8-9 threat will depend on the play between the southern wave indicated here and the NS. But while it’s similar look at the trough/ridge axis. Much better.  Further west allowing ridging along the coast. We need that in a cold progressive pattern.  And it’s following an arctic dump so unless we get a phased bomb it’s likely to contain significant frozen precip if the boundary wave can gain latitude. 

 
It repeats out to day 16 and looks stable. Results in these temps with this mean precip following the day 6-7 cutter. 

That’s as good a look as we could hope for without blocking. 

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I think you may have unrealistic hopes/expectations for DC winters. There have been BAD stretches through the records. 6 years isn't too bad. Sure it sucks - but DC/Balt is NOT a snow region. We go on heaters sometimes, but again, we are not a snow town for the vast majority of years. Even our seasonal snow climo is thrown off by years like 09-10 - so it's not a great judge of "you should expect this each year" 

If you have the means to chase upslope and stuff - that's the way to go. Otherwise you've gotta just enjoy the snow we do get, and track other types of weather while we wait. It's why I'm into severe weather in the spring/summer. Hell...I'll even track wind events. 

Feeling like "we're owed or we're due" for snow is as futile as waiting on the next major tropical system to come through the area. 

It's disheartening at times - but that's why you've gotta just distract yourself with other stuff. Take up hobbies that interest you other than weather and fill the time with them. 

So I think you’re both right. We do have bad stretches of this length.  But it’s also true we are in the midst of the worst 6 year run in DC history. I think it might be the worst for Baltimore also, just maybe not BWI which got lucky a couple times compared to the city.  Unfortunately I think that’s the new normal. If you look at the patterns and random cycles of good and bad stretches they are pretty random but within that random we will naturally hit random stretches of bad years. But those bad years are getting worse. 12” years became 7”. 7” years became 3”.  So each bad stretch is likely to be worse than the last. We don’t eek our way to 10-15” in bad pattern years often anymore. We sometimes even struggle to get much in decent patterns (now) anymore.  I think we can still have big years. If we get some legit ninos and don’t get any big snows then it’s 4 alarm time!  But we haven’t had that. The big storm drought is simple. No legit ninos since 2016. No storms since 2016. But the bad is definitely worse. 
 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So I think you’re both right. We do have bad stretches of this length.  But it’s also true we are in the midst of the worst 6 year run in DC history. I think it might be the worst for Baltimore also, just maybe not BWI which got lucky a couple times compared to the city.  Unfortunately I think that’s the new normal. If you look at the patterns and random cycles of good and bad stretches they are pretty random but within that random we will naturally hit random stretches of bad years. But those bad years are getting worse. 12” years became 7”. 7” years became 3”.  So each bad stretch is likely to be worse than the last. We don’t eek our way to 10-15” in bad pattern years often anymore. We sometimes even struggle to get much in decent patterns (now) anymore.  I think we can still have big years. If we get some legit ninos and don’t get any big snows then it’s 4 alarm time!  But we haven’t had that. The big storm drought is simple. No legit ninos since 2016. No storms since 2016. But the bad is definitely worse. 
 

Absolutely agree. And I think you worded that much better than I did (no surprise there). There is zero doubt in my mind that there's a new "normal" and we'll have to get used to it. And we may not even be done adjusting the goalposts either. 

That said - I think @Maestrobjwa - (no offense intended) does tend to have pretty high expectations and substantial agony when things don't line up for snow here. I guess it was more of an attempt to walk him back from the panic room than anything else. 

No doubt we all love snow - not all of us can be in the new @Bob Chill mentality...but we will be depressed messes if we tie all of our happiness to big snow. 

Give me some more of the Jan 3 storm and I'd be happy. HECS are great - but we can't do them every time. There's definitely something to be said about the proliferation of snow maps making the bar go sky high and people expecting huge storms every time the models hint at something even at long leads. 

[stormtracker]

Long range general play by play at 11 or so.  Just general stuff from like 150 to 220.  We need something to keep us going

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So I think you’re both right. We do have bad stretches of this length.  But it’s also true we are in the midst of the worst 6 year run in DC history. I think it might be the worst for Baltimore also, just maybe not BWI which got lucky a couple times compared to the city.  Unfortunately I think that’s the new normal. If you look at the patterns and random cycles of good and bad stretches they are pretty random but within that random we will naturally hit random stretches of bad years. But those bad years are getting worse. 12” years became 7”. 7” years became 3”.  So each bad stretch is likely to be worse than the last. We don’t eek our way to 10-15” in bad pattern years often anymore. We sometimes even struggle to get much in decent patterns (now) anymore.  I think we can still have big years. If we get some legit ninos and don’t get any big snows then it’s 4 alarm time!  But we haven’t had that. The big storm drought is simple. No legit ninos since 2016. No storms since 2016. But the bad is definitely worse. 
 

I recall you mentioning this last year...or at least referencing last winter.  That the "bad years" at least in the metro areas seem to be "worse" than previously.  I have only been here since 2001, but I think I've even noticed that in my time here.  I know that's anecdotal, but still.  You also made a comment that last year, you got ~50" while DCA/BWI were single-digit amounts (where I'm at, also single digits but a bit more than DCA).  And how that is highly unusual for DCA to be THAT awful when you get that amount.  I think you were spot-on with your assessment that there were some marginal events that year and the DC area just missed and didn't do well, while in other past years they would have fared better.  Yeah, part of that was the December Pac puke before there was any decent cold air source.  But that affects everyone.  We had some "perfect track rainstorms" here that not far away gave decent snow.  Of course, we know what the "elephant in the room" is concerning that.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So I think you’re both right. We do have bad stretches of this length.  But it’s also true we are in the midst of the worst 6 year run in DC history. I think it might be the worst for Baltimore also, just maybe not BWI which got lucky a couple times compared to the city.  Unfortunately I think that’s the new normal. If you look at the patterns and random cycles of good and bad stretches they are pretty random but within that random we will naturally hit random stretches of bad years. But those bad years are getting worse. 12” years became 7”. 7” years became 3”.  So each bad stretch is likely to be worse than the last. We don’t eek our way to 10-15” in bad pattern years often anymore. We sometimes even struggle to get much in decent patterns (now) anymore.  I think we can still have big years. If we get some legit ninos and don’t get any big snows then it’s 4 alarm time!  But we haven’t had that. The big storm drought is simple. No legit ninos since 2016. No storms since 2016. But the bad is definitely worse. 
 

One thing I have considered about the last 6 years: 4 of the 6 have been ninas, if I'm not mistaken. (2016-17 & 2017-18 were ninas, right?) Now maybe that's just a random fluke that would explain our recent struggles. Now the 2018-19 weak Nino that wasn't...I'm not sure we can count that. It was so weak that it never "coupled" per se. I am kinda keyed to see if next year is a legit Niño. But like you said, if that won't do it I don't know what will!

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Long range general play by play at 11 or so.  Just general stuff from like 150 to 220.  We need something to keep us going

 

I’ll tune in. 

[mattie g]

7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Absolutely agree. And I think you worded that much better than I did (no surprise there). There is zero doubt in my mind that there's a new "normal" and we'll have to get used to it. And we may not even be done adjusting the goalposts either. 

That said - I think @Maestrobjwa - (no offense intended) does tend to have pretty high expectations and substantial agony when things don't line up for snow here. I guess it was more of an attempt to walk him back from the panic room than anything else. 

No doubt we all love snow - not all of us can be in the new @Bob Chill mentality...but we will be depressed messes if we tie all of our happiness to big snow. 

Give me some more of the Jan 3 storm and I'd be happy. HECS are great - but we can't do them every time. There's definitely something to be said about the proliferation of snow maps making the bar go sky high and people expecting huge storms every time the models hint at something even at long leads. 

We just need people to stop trying to hold a pity party in the good discussion threads. It's tiring.

Fun banter is all well and good, but the wailing and gnashing of teeth makes a chore out of reading through the threads...and it really shouldn't be that way.

[Fozz]

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Absolutely agree. And I think you worded that much better than I did (no surprise there). There is zero doubt in my mind that there's a new "normal" and we'll have to get used to it. And we may not even be done adjusting the goalposts either. 

That said - I think @Maestrobjwa - (no offense intended) does tend to have pretty high expectations and substantial agony when things don't line up for snow here. I guess it was more of an attempt to walk him back from the panic room than anything else. 

No doubt we all love snow - not all of us can be in the new @Bob Chill mentality...but we will be depressed messes if we tie all of our happiness to big snow. 

Give me some more of the Jan 3 storm and I'd be happy. HECS are great - but we can't do them every time. There's definitely something to be said about the proliferation of snow maps making the bar go sky high and people expecting huge storms every time the models hint at something even at long leads. 

I don't think anyone is demanding a HECS. Just about everyone here knows that a HECS is rare and they don't happen very often. But some areas in the region (such as Baltimore) literally haven't seen a 6" storm since January 2016. And that is in spite of DC getting two 8-12" storms that fringed the Baltimore area. And on top of that they didn't get much from the usual north and west storms that bury psuhoffman.

I think the mood of some of the Baltimore area posters would be a lot better if those two DC storms had delivered just a bit further north as well.

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

That said - I think @Maestrobjwa - (no offense intended) does tend to have pretty high expectations and substantial agony when things don't line up for snow here.

Listen, my expectations are based on what I've grown with. I don't expect snow to work out every year...it was never like that. But what DID happen? We'd get a foot every 3-4 years, and 2 feet every 6-7. And then you might get a 6-8 incher somewhere in between. So the bad years were a bit more tolerable because they would have a good year in between. No stretch had been this bad.  So,;as both you and psu said, this stretch is a bit worse than usual--thus the reason for my frustration.

[Steve25]

I know the averages are getting worse. Average snowfall per winter has went down a few ticks. Average temps in winter months has climbed a few ticks compared to history. 

With that said, if you go back through our history of keeping weather records, and compile all the 12+ inch storms, throughout our entire history(dating back to the late 1800s), we average one storm of that variety approximately every 6 years. So if we're just speaking in terms of "Major Snowstorms", were really not in any kind of significant drought. If we somehow get one in February or March, we will be right on target. If it happens next winter, we really aren't that far off the average. 

Now that's just speaking on huge storms. I'm sure there's stats that show that the amount of like 5-10 inch storms have dropped significantly in recent history compared to over the full history of our area. 

The stat on big storms is also skewed by a winter like 09/10 because we got THREE storms that winter over a foot. So honestly it's probably generous to say we average one every 6 years. We're averaging major snowstorms(12"+) more frequently in the past 30 years than any other period in our history. Ironically, it's probably one of our worst periods in history when it comes to events in the 5-11 inch range. 

Definitely gives some credence to the climate argument that the averages are getting worse but the extremes are becoming more frequent. 

 

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Listen, my expectations are based on what I've grown with. I don't expect snow to work out every year...it was never like that. But what DID happen? We'd get a foot every 3-4 years, and 2 feet every 6-7. And then you might get a 6-8 incher somewhere in between. So the bad years were a bit more tolerable because they would have a good year in between. No stretch had been this bad.  But, as both you and psu said, this stretch is a bit worse than usual--thus the reason for my frustration.

I think we are mostly on the same page to be honest. 

I forget how old you are.

Ultimately I'm hoping we'll score something during the upcoming pattern that won't be so much of a subforum divider. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I recall you mentioning this last year...or at least referencing last winter.  That the "bad years" at least in the metro areas seem to be "worse" than previously.  I have only been here since 2001, but I think I've even noticed that in my time here.  I know that's anecdotal, but still.  You also made a comment that last year, you got ~50" while DCA/BWI were single-digit amounts (where I'm at, also single digits but a bit more than DCA).  And how that is highly unusual for DCA to be THAT awful when you get that amount.  I think you were spot-on with your assessment that there were some marginal events that year and the DC area just missed and didn't do well, while in other past years they would have fared better.  Yeah, part of that was the December Pac puke before there was any decent cold air source.  But that affects everyone.  We had some "perfect track rainstorms" here that not far away gave decent snow.  Of course, we know what the "elephant in the room" is concerning that.

I think the super bowl Sunday storm was the best example. Perfect track. Marginal airmass but peak climo. I got 6” and 95 got white rain at 35*. We know it’s warmer so it’s not a stretch to say that might have been a 32* 4-6” snowstorm in years past.  Subtract 1-2” from all those other marginal events and suddenly it’s a 8” winter instead of a 15-20” one in the same pattern 50 years ago. 

[nw baltimore wx]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Listen, my expectations are based on what I've grown with. I don't expect snow to work out every year...it was never like that. But what DID happen? We'd get a foot every 3-4 years, and 2 feet every 6-7. And then you might get a 6-8 incher somewhere in between. So the bad years were a bit more tolerable because they would have a good year in between. No stretch had been this bad.  So,;as both you and psu said, this stretch is a bit worse than usual--thus the reason for my frustration.

Man, you need to take a trip back to the 70's.  Until 1979, it totally sucked.  The "every 3 to 4 years" for a great storm is something no one should expect.  We got spoiled over a 20 to 30 year stretch, but I don't think it's the norm.

[North Balti Zen]

14 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I don't think anyone is demanding a HECS. Just about everyone here knows that a HECS is rare and they don't happen very often. But some areas in the region (such as Baltimore) literally haven't seen a 6" storm since January 2016. And that is in spite of DC getting two 8-12" storms that fringed the Baltimore area. And on top of that they didn't get much from the usual north and west storms that bury psuhoffman.

I think the mood of some of the Baltimore area posters would be a lot better if those two DC storms had delivered just a bit further north as well.

I love you. So well summed up.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Man, you need to take a trip back the 70's.  Until 1979, it totally sucked.  The "every 3 to 4 years" for a great storm is something no one should expect.  We got spoiled over a 20 to 30 year stretch, but I don't think it's the norm.

Some of it is exactly what he said about it being "what I grew up with" - so a little of the "Texas Sharpshooter" phenomena. If I shoot at the side of a barn 10 times and circle the 3 closest shots to the center and call myself a Texas Sharpshooter - doesn't make it true. Biases of course exist. 

 

[stormtracker]

So, yeah, cutter is still there..we already knew that...sort of a different look at h5, not radically.  Cold front pushes through our area.  Serious cold behind it..but we already knew this part