The Ole Bucket Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Are we ready for another heartbreaking chase??? Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 36 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Remember when this upcoming weekend storm looked like this last weekend? I do. I mean, yes, but the precip field even on the good runs a week ago didn't look like that. That looks like a more classic way we all win rather than praying for a low up OBX's backside in juuuuussssttt the right spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, Fozz said: You talking about the storm that the GFS shows exactly 12 years after Snowmageddon? I think it will happen. I mean it is absolutely our prime climo for big hits. And the one thing I am liking in the long range is the PV getting displaced over the lakes. Reminds me of 2010 in some ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Start a thread now for next weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Start a thread now for next weekend Come on dude. Way too early for that. Go time after 12z today tho. Maybe put in a reservation for a pin and we'll go from there 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This is tasty. Some action in the southern stream as well. Could end up cold and dry. But I will take my chances with this look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, H2O said: Start a thread now for next weekend maybe that's the problem tho - perhaps we need to start the thread now. You know, show our respect to the model and its solution as it stands now, then maybe it will show favor upon us and keep it. Worth a shot. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I’m bad luck, when I leave town it snows (pretty bad streak the past three years, including this one when I was in FL the first week of this month). I’ll be gone next weekend, so hope everyone enjoys the snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: maybe that's the problem tho - perhaps we need to start the thread now. You know, show our respect to the model and its solution as it stands now, then maybe it will show favor upon us and keep it. Worth a shot. People can laugh at you all they want. My life changed once I started being really really nice to wx models. In the heart nice. Can't fake it. Once I did that the MoCo deathband was reborn. People can say whatever they want but they all know my yard jacked in the burbs multiple times for no apparent reasons. Most evident with Jan 2016. Yea, keep thinking that's a coincidence. One day everyone will see the light. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: maybe that's the problem tho - perhaps we need to start the thread now. You know, show our respect to the model and its solution as it stands now, then maybe it will show favor upon us and keep it. Worth a shot. I’m kinda on this train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: People can laugh at you all they want. My life changed once I started being really really nice to wx models. In the heart nice. Can't fake it. Once I did that the MoCo deathband was reborn. People can say whatever they want but they all know my yard jacked in the burbs multiple times for no apparent reasons. Most evident with Jan 2016. Yea, keep thinking that's a coincidence. One day everyone will see the light. Exactly!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This is tasty. Some action in the southern stream as well. Could end up cold and dry. But I will take my chances with this look. The look here is very close to the displaced and elongated PV , PV streamlines shown on Stratobserver. As the PV evolves over time as shown by the streamlines various weather impacts may occur at our lattitude in Feb. Intially it looks like over-running events and then morphs into potential Manitoba Mauler developers off VA. Maybe even a hybrid MillerA/B. All options are on the table IMHO. Of note as well is that the PNA may not go negative as quickly, also looking for a wave breaking event for the possibility for Atlantic blocking for a short window, also worth mentioning is that AO is forecast to dive back down rather sharply and abruptly. This may put into motion some winter element as well in the equation during early Feb. Here are a couple images from yesterdays view of the forecasted streamlines. Also the look at 384 hours in thre last image is insane. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Fozz said: You talking about the storm that the GFS shows exactly 12 years after Snowmageddon? I think it will happen. Now see I kinda believed in anniversaries for this week's storm...(exactly 100 years after Knickerbocker and exactly 250 years after Washington/Jefferson). So that kinda burned me...but yet...hey why not, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Justin Berk calling out a weenie is just a tad ironic. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now see I kinda believed in anniversaries for this week's storm...(exactly 100 years after Knickerbocker and exactly 250 years after Wshington/Jefferson). But that kinda burned me...but yet...hey why not, lol I have a family event planned for that Saturday so of course it will snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 44 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I mean, yes, but the precip field even on the good runs a week ago didn't look like that. That looks like a more classic way we all win rather than praying for a low up OBX's backside in juuuuussssttt the right spot. I feel the same. This looks more like a wall of moisture running up and over the dome of cold air - the kind of thing that can end up being pretty straightforward. Big cutter drags the boundary through our area, fresh cold with a big-ass high pressure north of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and moisture streaming out of the Gulf as a low rides up the coast. Not saying I think it will happen (doesn't matter what I think), but it's fraught with far fewer concerns than something like this weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Justin Berk calling out a weenie is just a tad ironic. Beat me to it. Hard to fathom how much of a weenie Tony Pann is if freaking Justin Berk is calling him out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: I feel the same. This looks more like a wall of moisture running up and over the dome of cold air - the kind of thing that can end up being pretty straightforward. Big cutter drags the boundary through our area, fresh cold with a big-ass high pressure north of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and moisture streaming out of the Gulf as a low rides up the coast. Not saying I think it will happen (doesn't matter what I think), but it's fraught with far fewer concerns than something like this weekend. Hey if it still looks like that on Monday I'd be kinda psyched (but of course we'll all be looking at it before that and tell ourselves we're not paying attention, lol) Simpler is so much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Beat me to it. Hard to fathom how much of a weenie Tony Pann is if freaking Justin Berk is calling him out. True...lol And Berk does have a point: sharing that image now could cause too much confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Big pattern flip in early Feb kicked...again. Ens means depicting big PNA and EPO ridges with CPF holding tight and TPV anchored near Baffin Bay. Keep that general look with the AO hovering around neutral to slight negative and we will continue tracking. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: RGEM and ICON about to ruin all of our hopes and dreams RGEM Goes out out to 240 now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: RGEM Goes out out to 240 now? Ha! Thanks @Ji wrong thread I posted in. We need the rgem to 240 tho....great suggestion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey if it still looks like that on Monday I'd be kinda psyched (but of course we'll all be looking at it before that and tell ourselves we're not paying attention, lol) Simpler is so much better I'm paying attention to tomorrow-Saturday, but only as an exercise in seeing how things are playing out. I'm really not expecting anything. I'm much more interested in the next couple week, and yeah...if this is still hanging around come early next week I think we have something to actually focus in on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 29 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm paying attention to tomorrow-Saturday, but only as an exercise in seeing how things are playing out. I'm really not expecting anything. I'm much more interested in the next couple week, and yeah...if this is still hanging around come early next week I think we have something to actually focus in on. And I do wonder if we can already start paying attention to next week's cutter since we're under 7 days. That would be the first piece of the puzzle right there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Everyone cherish the 6z run for next weekend while we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Here for the 200hr time storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Here for the 200hr time storm. It's in San Diego at 186. Check out that broad bowl trough too. These setups create decent size precip fields when they energize. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's in San Diego at 186. Check out that broad bowl trough too. These setups create decent size precip fields when they energize. You seem more excited for this one than the shitshow at this time last week. Im all in. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just a little chilly in the northern Plains at 192 too with that 1050mb HP nosing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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