Chris78 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18z Gefs. After a warm up next week, definitely looks like some possibilities the second week of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah but what about a random tail though? Lol It is over 10 days out, lets just hope there is still a storm when we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I mean we get about 3 months of winter. We lost 1 in December. Jan was OK. Barring a mid level warning event in Feb winter is on track for a grade of C+. And that’s generous. Would be maybe a D grade for my yard. Still another 6 weeks or so of tracking possible but if winter ended today , it would be one of the lowest snow totals I've ever had in Smithsburg in the past 20 years or so. Sitting at about 10 so far. Really happy for areas further east though that has been able to cash in this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Would be maybe a D grade for my yard. Still another 6 weeks or so of tracking possible but if winter ended today , it would be one of the lowest snow totals I've ever had in Smithsburg in the past 20 years or so. Sitting at about 10 so far. Really happy for areas further east though that has been able to cash in this month. Losing December hurt. My area doesn’t see a lot in Dec but it was basically spring the entire month. Oh well. See what Feb brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: It is over 10 days out, lets just hope there is still a storm when we get there. True. But I have zero confidence even if the storm is there. See I caught some flack for broad brushing ninas as all awful...but here we see again why it's hard to snow. Too much random junk in the NS that makes it hard to get anything substantial. And I guess the progressive nature of things is also another nina issue? (Not sure about that part) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: After a warmish first few days of Feb and maybe a mild storm, we get this look. Cold, and potential is there for something, but it looks to be of the same variety we are dealing with now lol. Could be fun. -PNA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Actually, it's taking up all the water-area of the Gulf of Alaska. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 -E QBO/-NAO how is that workin out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I think we are generally ridging north in the water. -NAO seems to have the most potential for +900dm general anomaly because W->E/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS has a storm on Feb. 5, so it seems like we could be back to tracking soon, for better or for worse! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2/5 - 2/11 - big window of interest. GFS depicts an active jet with numerous shortwaves - 1 or 2 try to blow up off the coast. Shows the possibility for winter weather on the 5th, 9th, and 11th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6z gfs 10 day-beauty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z gfs 10 day-beauty low 20s and snowstorm... only 9 days away lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, yoda said: low 20s and snowstorm... only 9 days away lol I'm sure VA Beach could use a refreshment on its snowpack by then. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: low 20s and snowstorm... only 9 days away lol We are due! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 low 20s and snowstorm... only 9 days away lolTake it and run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, yoda said: low 20s and snowstorm... only 9 days away lol Seems the entire PV shifts South putting us under battle zone with Frigid air to our North and waves moving along the boundary to our South. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 52 minutes ago, yoda said: low 20s and snowstorm... only 9 days away lol Just gotta get through some 60s first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 WB 6Z GFS next weekend 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 31 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS next weekend For once this actually fits the potential of the overrunning pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, frd said: For once this actually fits the potential of the overrunning pattern. The 00z Gfs shows the potential we have if we end up on the right side of the boundary. Tracking something every couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS next weekend I refuse to look at the models until Wednesday 2/2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 hours ago, frd said: We are due! Yes, this will be our storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS next weekend Remember when this upcoming weekend storm looked like this last weekend? I do. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 53 minutes ago, frd said: For once this actually fits the potential of the overrunning pattern. Been thinking the same thing. Way too far out to care much about details for me so the storm itself isn't worth discussing but the fact that both op and ens are showing an active (legit) gradient pattern is noteworthy. We've seen the look on ens a few times but ops always looked different and by the time the broad trough period moved forward into the mid range, it was just regular progressive quick ridge/troughs and not a big "bowl carve". This upcoming window (imo) is starting to really grab my attention. We do best with "broad bowls" with a dome of heavy cold air sprawling north of us. Eta: when I say "we do best" I mean snow comes the easiest. Not the biggest potential or high end storms. That's been off the table all year pretty much in the east. Eta2: this post ties back to my thoughts on available storm vectors. The Fri deal is literally a single lucky one lane vector. I never liked it once as I really do hate those setups. Not worth the time like 95% of the time. Broad bowls open up all of our good vectors of approach. Every single one. And the longer it repeats, odds get really good. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS next weekend 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 We might reach climo in Baltimore this year which is a nice change but until we finally break the warning criteria drought, can’t go better than a C! Hopefully if we get into a boundary runner setup, we have enough tickets in that lottery to make one score like the GFS depicts. But it’s a long way away, say your goodbyes to it before the 12z… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Is it me or has January felt like a lifetime? I guess the cold made it drag out but to think in theory we still have our snowiest month left is a positive....unless Roundy is right and we flip to warm in mid January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Are we ready for another heartbreaking chase???Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Are we ready for another heartbreaking chase??? Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk You talking about the storm that the GFS shows exactly 12 years after Snowmageddon? I think it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts