stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It's a miss again. Trof axis just too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Trough is a bit further east than the 18z run, but an improvement over 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Wide right again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: You guys can't seriously look at h132 and think this is going to be a hit, can you? I’ll let you know once I can see 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Its a heartbreaker. Just east. Decent hit for the coast though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 You guys can't seriously look at h132 and think this is going to be a hit, can you? 138 looks similar in evolution and structure at h5 to 18z yesterday, but the juxtaposition is a decent bit east of that. No one said it was a replica of 18z but it did make a recovery. These things take 2 to 3 runs to fully recover if they ever do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs made a substantial shift towards (imo) a problematic track. I'd prefer a few of those in the mix leading in. You don't want the left shoulder written off in a progressive pattern Out to sea solutions and southern sliders are the worst to me. I'd rather flirt with a snow to rain track then a wind track We need to watch that drag in the tail as the sw drops thru the west. With the tpv lobe running out in front it could get cutoff completely. This panel shows the risk to my eyes. Speed up the tpv/polar jet energy and the dig cuts off down south somewhere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: You guys can't seriously look at h132 and think this is going to be a hit, can you? 138 looks similar in evolution and structure at h5 to 18z yesterday, but the juxtaposition is a decent bit east of that. No one said it was a replica of 18z but it did make a recovery. These things take 2 to 3 runs to fully recover if they ever do It woulda been nice if that additional piece of N/S energy that drops down at 138/144 would phase into the backside and help turn the axis more negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 We are still in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It wouldn't take too much of the 12z trend is real to bet back to exciting levels 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: We need to watch that drag in the tail as the sw drops thru the west. With the tpv lobe running out in front it could get cutoff completely. This panel shows the risk to my eyes. Speed up the tpv/polar jet energy and the dig cuts off down south somewhere. That could, like you said, be either good or completely eliminate the potential altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 Right now everything is just happening to far east. We need that sw, once it drops into the four corners, to come out strong, not some little ripple. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It woulda been nice if that additional piece of N/S energy that drops down at 138/144 would phase into the backside and help turn the axis more negative. 18z baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We need to watch that drag in the tail as the sw drops thru the west. With the tpv lobe running out in front it could get cutoff completely. This panel shows the risk to my eyes. Speed up the tpv/polar jet energy and the dig cuts off down south somewhere. That’s exactly what we need imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: That could, like you said, be either good or completely eliminate the potential altogether. Could be great or awful. One thing it would do is add a few days to the progression. I hate delays with progressive cold but a cutoff attacking from the south can be fun af. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Could be great or awful. One thing it would do is add a few days to the progression. I hate delays with progressive cold but a cutoff attacking from the south can be fun af. We'll see As you said, it's that "tail". saw it early on. It's literally such a drag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 This will keep trending towards the east and minimal impact for the E. Coast. I believe we move on from this and look at the Feb 1-3 Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 hours ago, mattie g said: Exactly. They make it sounds like winter is over within a couple weeks. Just a dumb statement from an official source. Good thing weenies are the only ones reading these statements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CentralVaNATS said: This will keep trending towards the east and minimal impact for the E. Coast. I believe we move on from this and look at the Feb 1-3 Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Good suggestion, move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Had to delete previous post. CMC has the same look so far as GFS. But the vort that count's on the CMC at 93 is a bit further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It's the CMC, but it has a better look than the GFS at 108 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 20 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said: We are still in the game We were never out of it. As @MillvilleWx explained so well, most snowstorms in our area don’t get sniffed out outside 4 days. We are never out of the game until the fat lady sings. 6 days out isn’t that time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ji said: It wouldn't take too much of the 12z trend is real to bet back to exciting levels Didnt you say it was over last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 We were never out of it. As [mention=9895]MillvilleWx[/mention] explained so well, most snowstorms in our area don’t get sniffed out outside 4 days. We are never out of the game until the fat lady sings. 6 days out isn’t that time. Stop saying its 6 days out. The storm is fully mature at 6 days. Look at 3 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Very different look on the CMC at 500 than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Didnt you say it was over last night? No i said see you at 6z and we are quickly running out of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Need that upstream omega to break down a bit slower. That cutoff offshore of CA being slower helps this run as it doesn't dampen the ridge as quickly. Lots of run to run variability until that piece settles down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 CMC looks pretty good so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Trough looks slightly positive near the Mississippi river, at hour 120? Correct me if I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: CMC looks pretty good so far Certainly a lot better than 0z, just need the trough to take on more neutral/neg tilt easier. Energy is all phasing together pretty well in that evolution. Some stuff coming in on the backside to help tilt this. Assume a close miss, but a much cleaner evolution as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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