jaydreb Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 GEFS looks similar to op. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 30 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Puking snow over Boston. Big take away, even with the significant h5 changes, is the model is still pumping out a monster storm. Just misses us in this run. I’d rather it be east and dry cold at this range than west and warm rainy. Quite frankly...and maybe I'm a bit early with this, but so far it's stsrting to look like there are only two possibilities here: A) We get absolute nailed with 1-2+ feet or b) We see nothing at all--no backened inches, no snow to rain/mix...like literally all or nothing! That's my story and I'm stickin' to it...lol (unless we see the models a not impossible in-between solution) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, Solution Man said: If it looks like this in 3 days then maybe we are out True. But that's 3 days and 12 GFS runs from now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Gefs is really bad. This is about over. The only times gfs getting us blue is when it produces 1 in 100 year storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 GEFS supports op and is definitely east of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 CMC is a miss that is further east than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 CMC is a miss that is further east than the GFS. Cmc actually improved lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 “We need it to show a big storm by tomorrow or we’re in deep sh**” What? It’s almost a week away. That’s nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Anyone that thinks a potential storm is solved at Day 7/8 is absolutely out of their ever loving mind. Is it climo favored for us? NO Is it dead in the water? Also NO Anyone who does this every single day with the lamenting on a run by run basis needs therapy or to move to NNE. This is the Mid Atlantic. Our storms don't usually show up until 4 day leads to begin with. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Anyone that thinks a potential storm is solved at Day 7/8 is absolutely out of their ever loving mind. Is it climo favored for us? NO Is it dead in the water? Also NO Anyone who does this every single day with the lamenting on a run by run basis needs therapy or to move to NNE. This is the Mid Atlantic. Our storms don't usually show up until 4 day leads to begin with. When you say not "climo favored"...in what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Great post from the NE forum from Tip: 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is a long lead heads up for a potentially strong cyclone over the eastern U.S./ .. western Atlantic, only. That said ...it has enough presentation in the various model clusters, and persistence too, to initiate the focus. Though we are far from a deterministic forecast, this system hm has some risk upside. Short list of notables: -- this potential begins 7.5 days away for N GA, and perhaps exits Maine D8.5/9. , ... It's not impossible that this system slows down ( more blw), such that it's into the 31st over the NNE/ME. It is also potentially a larger system size. By virtue of that alone it may take more than a two periods to completely finish a location. -- as that suggests, this may impact multiple regions from the interior SE U.S. and up along the I-95 megalopolis to SNE, NH and ME. This is a fluid interpretation/subject to change. But when we get into multi-region, multi-faceted systems, even a moderate storm aggregates a major problem. -- may want to check tides/ lunar, as this system may be ISE loaded and should it slow down... it may protract across more than a singe tide cycle. This type of storm, we have no observed in recent years. Unlike last January, when the super synoptic manifold entered a slowing of progression, with relaxing gradient, but no embedded mechanics, this appears attempting to do so. Concepts: We've been monitoring this for a week now, and thus it has established history. Sometimes important events show up at longer leads ... and keep re-appearing - I've been wondering if we're living that. That would be true if it hits a backyard or not... Slowly the various ENS means have become more ominously suggestive. The most recent runs of the GEFs and GEPs ( 18z and 12z respectively..) were still continuing along favorable trends, well established spanning multi cycles. The sense here is higher than model-climate odds for a significant system. Where it tracks, I have a couple concerns -- I am noticing the sensitivity is very related to the progressive, vs slowing ( timing this latter arrival) of the flow character. Whenever a guidance cycle has reverted back to conserving the progressive character more so, we end up with runs more so ... like the 12z GFS and Euro. When the subtle pattern change to slow progressivity is apparently directing a give model cycle, we get are bells wrung like the 18z GFS... Not sure at the moment which way that will go... I am also noticing there the flow structures over SE Canada having effects on model runs, but that may be related to those same aspects. This about 50/50 right now. If progressivity persists, this ends up east. If this leitmotif in the ens systems to slow takes place, it would be west because N/S meridian tendencies are increasing, and the system ends up farther W. My haunch is that the slow idea is real... how much? It could be damned in between! ugh... But, if we look upstream, there is an emerging -WPO/-EPO out there D6-10. That is blocking ...native to that tendency, progressivity tends to slow, and the meridian aspect manifests. So that's were I lean presently.. We'll see -- Plus, there is also the S/W mechanics them selves... If there is more N/stream insert, we may see a subsume phase... vs less, like this 18z run. 18z is a purer Miller A. Should the this slow down and trend Miller B, this is a bright signal and that would likely manifest with equal prominence to put it lightly. But much of this is also indirectly related to above, as those are larger waves creating constructive vs destructive interference nesting. -- The other aspect ...which is highly experimental.. I've been noticing that the last two significant systems we've covered had a tendency to be too far E in ens means, at this range... and eventually, clusters conceded to the higher resolution/physically tested operational version. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: When you say not "climo favored"...in what way? NS dominant disturbance that favors a Miller B outcome, or a hybrid of sorts. We can get them, but typically that is a New England favored generation. There's a modest s/w over the south that could be involved as well, but the main player is a strong s/w exiting out of Central Canada and driving south with a pinch and close south of our lat with a SLP generation over a favored baroclinic ribbon along the east coast. Not enough dig, late close off, late phase with the southern stream, etc would all cause it to fail or hook and miss. The fact the s/w digs like it does provides the opportunity, but it's still not a climo norm. Pattern does favor some latitudinal premise in a s/w digging, but timing is everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 hours ago, CntrTim85 said: You should def start it. Maybe another 0.7" in the pipes for you! It’s awesome that you got a nice storm last night. We hope you enjoyed it man. But you’re only proving his point by being so hyped about it. A 7” storm is a walk in the park in the upper Shenandoah valley and the fact that you are so amped up over it only proves that it is indeed a rarity for your area. The last time your area got 5+ inches was 2018, before last night. Meanwhile, Clskinsfan probably saw more snow January 2016 than you saw in the entire last decade combined…. to give you some much needed perspective. Let’s stick to talking about upcoming threats, shall we? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Oz Euro is gonna be a miss wide right. On to the next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Wonder what models Dark Sky utilizes for their forecasts. Has 1-3 for next Saturday and 5-9 on Sunday. Ballsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said: Oz Euro is gonna be a miss wide right. On to the next Much rather be missing wide right and cold / dry, than be in the bullseye 6 days out. Every, single, time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 35 minutes ago, jayyy said: Much rather be missing wide right and cold / dry, than be in the bullseye 6 days out. Every, single, time. This run does look like it did improve slightly the vs last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 hours ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: ETA: Confirmed..it's a miss to the east, but not by much. Its not close at all. If there is no southern stream involved...its a miller b and we have zero chance. Horrid run It seems to be a timing difference. The slower NS solutions were better because they phased within a STJ wave that the slightly faster solutions leave behind. One of the previous Gfs and euro even even managed to phase the next NS wave with that stj wave. Problem is guidance seems to be converging around the faster solution for the first NS wave and it’s too chaotic to even speculate what happens behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 932mb low south of Martha's Vineyard has my attention 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, Amped said: 932mb low south of Martha's Vineyard has my attention Wouldn’t that be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Much rather be missing wide right and cold / dry, than be in the bullseye 6 days out. Every, single, time. No you wouldnt 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The rolling and demise of that upstream omega block is going to be key. The cutoff well off of CA is a sticking point. The primary reason the GFS shifted was due to the ridge axis being distorted as the upstream cut-off opened up into a wave and destructively interfered with the ridge axis, causing our downstream trough to be less sharp and ultimately less vort advection. Takes a bit too long to get going. That said, we're in a good spot and the fact that all 3 OPs are flagging something to watch at this distance is also a good thing. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 11:51 AM, Bob Chill said: Some sort of wrapped up storm in general has been showing consistently for 3+ days now. Personally, I hate tracking these events. So much happens in such a short time with development and then add 6 days to the lead and... well... ummm... this thread is going to be disastrous daily. If you don't like nerve pain, tooth aches, slipped discs, 3rd degree burns, and a couple random STDs.... I'd stay the F away. Throw away your reading glasses and cancel your internet. Thank me later. This. Definitely sig material 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Unfortunately GFS continues to trend toward EURO and Canadian at 6Z for upcoming weekend. Congrats Cape Cod and Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Looks like a lot of down time coming up with tracking. Someone unplugged the heater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Some here should probably take Chill's advice and disengage. The required timing and intricate interactions between the key features to get a good outcome are on the table, but we are still several days out, and we just cannot know. This remains a period to watch, and nothing is resolved at this juncture. The ensembles continue to signal a miss wide right. It would be nice to see some improvement there over the next day or 2. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Looks like a lot of down time coming up with tracking. Someone unplugged the heater. The 6z GFS was a good run at h5 imo. The human pendulums and emotional debs are the ones who obsess over op run surface maps in isolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z ICON does not look bad at 500… Will that’s awful. That’ll never produce snow here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 GEFS is a lot better than 00z... better alignment and amplification of the PNA ridge and it results in a much deeper trough this will certainly result in a more favorable surface output 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Will that’s awful. That’ll never produce snow here Nor this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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