Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

For the snow map peeps, this best captures that period. Differences in timing etc, among the individual members and a bit of digital snow prior.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

 

Right on queue. 

Less than a foot actually lol.  But at least it's something to watch over the next week

[WinterWxLuvr]

[Prestige Worldwide]

#4 would work just fine- lol.  And yes I know it won’t happen- and yes I know it’s a week away- but this is a weather board 

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Wed into Thursday maybe.

[WinterWxLuvr]

45 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Wed into Thursday maybe.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

6z Control digging in further south + west at 144 . Improvement over 0z 

That west coast ridge is in a perfect spot. I think we may just get lucky this time.

[psuhoffman]

The last major NS buckling dug into KS. This time (on progs) it’s digging into Indiana. Somewhere in between is our sweet spot. 

[LeesburgWx]

@Ji’s meltdown overnight looks to have had some effect on the models as they are now looking a bit better and pulling us back in. Long week to go

[Solution Man]

Get ready for a long week of expert tracking, hallucinations, kuchera rates, whiffs and troll posts. That’s what we do

[Ralph Wiggum]

32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

6z Control digging in further south + west at 144 . Improvement over 0z 

How did that euro control model do for today's storm? You know, the one that continually had a massive hit up 95 and N and W of there? Asking for DT.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

@Ji’s meltdown overnight looks to have had some effect on the models as they are now looking a bit better and pulling us back in. Long week to go

People who just look at the blue pixels won’t like this but I wasn’t a fan of the 6z Gfs.  Relying on a phase and coastal development at your latitude is extremely dangerous and fails 90% of the time. That’s a typical miller b tease scenario.  The Gfs snowed on us simply by developing the miller b quicker and further west. It didn’t actually do what I want to see which is key more on the stj wave like it was doing in earlier runs and develop a healthy system in the southeast that can get captured and lift north. That “hybrid” progression is better for us. If this becomes a NS dominant miller b scenario those rarely work regardless what models show 7 days out!   I don’t really care where the miller b develops on guidance what I’m hoping to see if a move towards developing an STJ wave earlier and phasing with it further south. A pure NS dominant miller b will end in tears. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That west coast ridge is in a perfect spot. I think we may just get lucky this time.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the control pretty much just another lower resolution op? Then the ens members are ran off of pertubations of the control, no?

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People who just look at the blue pixels won’t like this but I wasn’t a fan of the 6z Gfs.  Relying on a phase and coastal development at your latitude is extremely dangerous and fails 90% of the time. That’s a typical miller b tease scenario.  The Gfs snowed on us simply by developing the miller b quicker and further west. It didn’t actually do what I want to see which is key more on the stj wave like it was doing in earlier runs and develop a healthy system in the southeast that can get captured and lift north. That “hybrid” progression is better for us. If this becomes a NS dominant miller b scenario those rarely work regardless what models show 7 days out!   I don’t really care where the miller b develops on guidance what I’m hoping to see if a move towards developing an STJ wave earlier and phasing with it further south. A pure NS dominant miller b will end in tears. 

I think we share part of the same cerebral cortex, I really do. I chuckled when I saw the op and thought of how most would envision it as an improvement just looking at the surface when in all actuality it may have been a small step back at h5. This is an odd hobby at times....well, most of the time. Did anyone check on Ji this AM?

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People who just look at the blue pixels won’t like this but I wasn’t a fan of the 6z Gfs.  Relying on a phase and coastal development at your latitude is extremely dangerous and fails 90% of the time. That’s a typical miller b tease scenario.  The Gfs snowed on us simply by developing the miller b quicker and further west. It didn’t actually do what I want to see which is key more on the stj wave like it was doing in earlier runs and develop a healthy system in the southeast that can get captured and lift north. That “hybrid” progression is better for us. If this becomes a NS dominant miller b scenario those rarely work regardless what models show 7 days out!   I don’t really care where the miller b develops on guidance what I’m hoping to see if a move towards developing an STJ wave earlier and phasing with it further south. A pure NS dominant miller b will end in tears. 

Yup. A straight up Miller B scenario is destined to fail when the Atlantic side looks like it does in this scenario. Got to have the southern stream involved, but also don’t want a cutoff southern low. This thing is going to be complicated and complicated rarely works for us, especially in a Niña.

[Ji]

People who just look at the blue pixels won’t like this but I wasn’t a fan of the 6z Gfs.  Relying on a phase and coastal development at your latitude is extremely dangerous and fails 90% of the time. That’s a typical miller b tease scenario.  The Gfs snowed on us simply by developing the miller b quicker and further west. It didn’t actually do what I want to see which is key more on the stj wave like it was doing in earlier runs and develop a healthy system in the southeast that can get captured and lift north. That “hybrid” progression is better for us. If this becomes a NS dominant miller b scenario those rarely work regardless what models show 7 days out!   I don’t really care where the miller b develops on guidance what I’m hoping to see if a move towards developing an STJ wave earlier and phasing with it further south. A pure NS dominant miller b will end in tears. 

Yup it was a disaster. It reminded me of something like dec 30 2000. We got extremely lucky on that run

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup. A straight up Miller B scenario is destined to fail when the Atlantic side looks like it does in this scenario. Got to have the southern stream involved, but also don’t want a cutoff southern low. This thing is going to be complicated and complicated rarely works for us, especially in a Niña.

Sounds like it's better to jump ship now and be pleasantly surprised if it works, lol And a "cutoff southern low" would mean what?

[snowfan]

Not hard to see how that gfs op run ends w a wide right pass leaving us high and dry. You have to stay away from the snow panels.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People who just look at the blue pixels won’t like this but I wasn’t a fan of the 6z Gfs.  Relying on a phase and coastal development at your latitude is extremely dangerous and fails 90% of the time. That’s a typical miller b tease scenario.  The Gfs snowed on us simply by developing the miller b quicker and further west. It didn’t actually do what I want to see which is key more on the stj wave like it was doing in earlier runs and develop a healthy system in the southeast that can get captured and lift north. That “hybrid” progression is better for us. If this becomes a NS dominant miller b scenario those rarely work regardless what models show 7 days out!   I don’t really care where the miller b develops on guidance what I’m hoping to see if a move towards developing an STJ wave earlier and phasing with it further south. A pure NS dominant miller b will end in tears. 

Yup it was a disaster. It reminded me of something like dec 30 2000. We got extremely lucky on that run

Ugh, you had to go there? Almost as bad as that other storm that will go without naming. Some Miller Bs go into the vault as epic disasters and their memories should remain encased in that vault never to be mentioned again. Always great for New England, rarely good outside of there.

Was March 2001 also a Miller B? 

[Solution Man]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People who just look at the blue pixels won’t like this but I wasn’t a fan of the 6z Gfs.  Relying on a phase and coastal development at your latitude is extremely dangerous and fails 90% of the time. That’s a typical miller b tease scenario.  The Gfs snowed on us simply by developing the miller b quicker and further west. It didn’t actually do what I want to see which is key more on the stj wave like it was doing in earlier runs and develop a healthy system in the southeast that can get captured and lift north. That “hybrid” progression is better for us. If this becomes a NS dominant miller b scenario those rarely work regardless what models show 7 days out!   I don’t really care where the miller b develops on guidance what I’m hoping to see if a move towards developing an STJ wave earlier and phasing with it further south. A pure NS dominant miller b will end in tears. 

Thank you….learning and appreciate your posts 

Miller B = tears and despair for us

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Not hard to see how that gfs op run ends w a wide right pass leaving us high and dry. You have to stay away from the snow panels.

Or at the very least look a little closer at the "shape" of things...I'm seeing that how ya get to the blue can be more important than just seeing the blue! So we don't wanna see the blue coming in in the shape of a tower and a squashed stj wave! Gotta wonder if we can see some improvement this weekend...

[stormtracker]

54 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

@Ji’s meltdown overnight looks to have had some effect on the models as they are now looking a bit better and pulling us back in. Long week to go

Don't do that...

[stormtracker]

That said, it was one of the ugliest 989 lows I've ever seen.  (Yes psu, I know why). 

[stormtracker]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People who just look at the blue pixels won’t like this but I wasn’t a fan of the 6z Gfs.  Relying on a phase and coastal development at your latitude is extremely dangerous and fails 90% of the time. That’s a typical miller b tease scenario.  The Gfs snowed on us simply by developing the miller b quicker and further west. It didn’t actually do what I want to see which is key more on the stj wave like it was doing in earlier runs and develop a healthy system in the southeast that can get captured and lift north. That “hybrid” progression is better for us. If this becomes a NS dominant miller b scenario those rarely work regardless what models show 7 days out!   I don’t really care where the miller b develops on guidance what I’m hoping to see if a move towards developing an STJ wave earlier and phasing with it further south. A pure NS dominant miller b will end in tears. 

agreed

[87storms]

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Or at the very least look a little closer at the "shape" of things...I'm seeing that how ya get to the blue can be more important than just seeing the blue! So we don't wanna see the blue coming in in the shape of a tower and a squashed stj wave! Gotta wonder if we can see some improvement this weekend...

Really want the trough a little further west to avoid a late phase. That’ll cause a coastal developing too far east (like last nights system) or north.

[Snowfan96]

6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Really want the trough a little further west to avoid a late phase. That’ll cause a coastal developing too far east (like last nights system) or north.

Yes!  Right now, it seems one of these two outcomes is most plausible: The track stays far enough east with little to no impact, or it phases but then tracks inland as a cutter (much like last weekend) - which could still bring some wintry precip but nothing too significant.

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

People who just look at the blue pixels won’t like this but I wasn’t a fan of the 6z Gfs.  Relying on a phase and coastal development at your latitude is extremely dangerous and fails 90% of the time. That’s a typical miller b tease scenario.  The Gfs snowed on us simply by developing the miller b quicker and further west. It didn’t actually do what I want to see which is key more on the stj wave like it was doing in earlier runs and develop a healthy system in the southeast that can get captured and lift north. That “hybrid” progression is better for us. If this becomes a NS dominant miller b scenario those rarely work regardless what models show 7 days out!   I don’t really care where the miller b develops on guidance what I’m hoping to see if a move towards developing an STJ wave earlier and phasing with it further south. A pure NS dominant miller b will end in tears. 

I thought the exact same when I saw it. No thanks.

Why is it so hard to get a storm running into Tennessee and then redeveloping off Myrtle?

[87storms]

15 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said:

Yes!  Right now, it seems one of these two outcomes is most plausible: The track stays far enough east with little to no impact, or it phases but then tracks inland as a cutter (much like last weekend) - which could still bring some wintry precip but nothing too significant.

Yea I don’t think it’s a cutter pattern with the ridging out west, but if there’s enough blocking then maybe it’ll go negative quick enough. I almost like the midweek potential more though maybe bc it’s sooner lol.

[Ji]

I thought the exact same when I saw it. No thanks.
Why is it so hard to get a storm running into Tennessee and then redeveloping off Myrtle?

Cause we don't have blocking for that kind of track

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I thought the exact same when I saw it. No thanks.
Why is it so hard to get a storm running into Tennessee and then redeveloping off Myrtle?

Cause we don't have blocking for that kind of track

Right, but where the hell is all the blocking that was predicted this winter? That was supposed to be about the only thing in our favor this winter.