stormtracker Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I don't want to see the 12z solution from the GFS again until like Day 2. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: BINGO. This man here gets it. Da fuq can somebody sweat details at a >100 hr map? Right now, I'm looking for general and broad signal. It's still there. Why would anybody want it to show the perfect scenario now when they know damn well it's not going to hold for the next 30 or so runs? I think it all comes from the might and the maybes...Ya see a boom run and ya see what can go right (likely triggering a "feel good" response...). You see a bust run and you're reminded of what can go wrong. So I'm not sure it's about like actually being okay with being in the bullseye this early...but rather a reaction to negative runs showing a possibility (likely triggering the opposite response in the brain). Like others have said...psychologists would have a field day in here, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 WB 18Z GEFS low positions for end of January event as already stated better than 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 LolLol the 18z was exactly what i wanted. Just want to see aome kind of signal. Good run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 LOL! GFS shows a gradient/overrunning type event near the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Using basic longwave pattern progression to identify a window where a major amplification was likely near the east coast was the easy part. That’s done with a 30,000 ft view of the hemispheric pattern. But we only care if that leads to snow in our yards. That’s the fun but hard part determined by a bunch of details like SW timing and the angle the NS digs in at or how clean and where the phase happens…things we can’t know yet. This has a lot more moving parts then 2016. I doubt guidance starts to settle on the final general idea until inside 5 days and probably even then will have some specific details (that matter to us a lot) not pinned down until much later. I suggest we just enjoy the chaos until the guidance starts to converge and stabilize on a common general solution. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 31 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: LOL! GFS shows a gradient/overrunning type event near the end of its run. Our best shot in this pattern. Without a -NAO and a 50/50 low none of the day 3-10 HECS that appear on models are going to verify. Looks more like a -epo polar vortex pattern like 2013/2014. We had plenty of day 3-10 HECS show up on models and not verify that winter also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 38 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS low positions for end of January event as already stated better than 12Z. Not bad for range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Our best shot in this pattern. Without a -NAO and a 50/50 low none of the day 3-10 HECS that appear on models are going to verify. Looks more like a -epo polar vortex pattern like 2013/2014. We had plenty of day 3-10 HECS show up on models and not verify that winter also. I tend to agree with you on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: BINGO. This man here gets it. Da fuq can somebody sweat details at a >100 hr map? Right now, I'm looking for general and broad signal. It's still there. Why would anybody want it to show the perfect scenario now when they know damn well it's not going to hold for the next 30 or so runs? The issue is addiction to the "pretty" surface/p-type maps. Completely useless at range and from run to run. Even a vet like Ji can't resist though. He still melts down when an op run doesn't show the blues over his yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 30 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Not bad for range The tendency lately in this progressive pattern with Arctic cold air pressing southeast is for weakening shortwaves moving eastward, and low pressure developing offshore along the thermal boundary, then scooting out. The op runs today are depicting the degree and timing of the amplification to be more favorable for a track up along the coast. Time will tell if this will be any different than recent outcomes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 Two most popular buzz words this season 1)signal 2)range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 I’d be curious as to what the 18z eps shows for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 hours ago, MountainGeek said: Sunday, Tuesday, and then we get obliterated by a snowicane next weekend. At least for the next few minutes..... No, no, and probably no 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Two most popular buzz words this season 1)signal 2)range it used to be 'blocking', but we so rarely see it anymore it can't be a buzz word. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Lol Lol the 18z was exactly what i wanted. Just want to see aome kind of signal. Good run Thank god! Someone who is perfectly sane steps in and calms everyone down. I feel much better. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Both the eps and gefs show the epo ridge extended over the pole in Feb. that’s one way to get the cold that dumps into western Canada to press southeast. The current advertised pattern isn’t the December one. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Both the eps and gefs show the epo ridge extended over the pole in Feb. that’s one way to get the cold that dumps into western Canada to press southeast. The current advertised pattern isn’t the December one. I see -PNA. Likely to be El Nino next year when +PNA turns - in February and early end to winter. This is how it happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, mattie g said: I see -PNA. Likely to be El Nino next year when +PNA turns - in February and early end to winter. This is how it happens. I see lots of deep red. HL blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d be curious as to what the 18z eps shows for Tuesday I was too….but it’s not good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 40 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d be curious as to what the 18z eps shows for Tuesday It could have a signal. And it's in range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 *shrug* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I was too….but it’s not good. If you aren't posting maps it must be bad lol. I actually looked- there isn't much to say really. A sprinkle/snow shower maybe? Still time though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It could have a signal. And it's in range. But is it tasty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just to illustrate my earlier point…early Feb doesn’t look like a torch despite a -pna on the eps or gefs. A gradient pattern could work if the idea of the epo ridge extending over the pole with a slightly -AO is correct. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Big -EPO and -NAO, too. I had a reverse-negPNA signal through February anyway, so this fits. Should stay borderline cold/snow if 12z/18z GFS ensembles verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 In the global warming cycle, new high anomaly in -PNA starts cold here, and takes years to acclimate (warm), so expect the NAO to keep going negative with -PNA, -PNA/-NAO (+PNA/+NAO) correlated through February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Big -EPO and -NAO, too. I had a reverse-negPNA signal through February anyway, so this fits. Should stay borderline cold/snow if 12z/18z GFS ensembles verify. Judah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 my takeaway from the 18z gfs is that i may need new tires for my jeep sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 54 minutes ago, mattie g said: I see -PNA. Likely to be El Nino next year when +PNA turns - in February and early end to winter. This is how it happens. This is your fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts