CAPE Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 It's a singular op run, a full week out y'all. This gives more support to the ultimate(and desirable) outcome. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Damn New England gets smashed. Widespread 30+. Take that down ya traitor!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Not only timing imo. The shape and placement of the west coast ridge when the energies start to make their slide down from western Canada into the us is key. 12z had a more N to S trajectory. 18z more of a SE slide which kicked the whole precess too far east. Something in between would have been money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: We almost always have to sweat timing with a few exceptions. True...a la 2016 being one of those exceptions, lol 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Timing is always a major factor esp when the flow is progressive. In a sense, a blocky pattern is much easier, esp in a Nino when its all about the stj. Just get the block and wait for the right wave. Yeah that is true. Now, if we can get a transient block...would that add a little more wiggle room? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 So 12Z Euro has us worried and sweating about temperatures, while now the 18Z GFS has us concerned about wide right and then slamming New England!! Well...the one consistent thing as others have said is that there is some consensus at least on a significant event next weekend. But so many details that aren't going to be ironed out anytime really soon. Unfortunately, not a standard ideal setup where you know what's coming for the most part and it's a matter of small details only and not the overall evolution (a'la 2010 or Jan. 2016). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Damn New England gets smashed. Widespread 30+. Who cares? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: So 12Z Euro has us worried and sweating about temperatures, while now the 18Z GFS has us concerned about wide right and then slamming New England!! Well...the one consistent thing as others have said is that there is some consensus at least on a significant event next weekend. But so many details that aren't going to be ironed out anytime really soon. Unfortunately, not a standard ideal setup where you know what's coming for the most part and it's a matter of small details only and not the overall evolution (a'la 2010 or Jan. 2016). Will be fun to track….that’s why they call ‘em models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Not only timing imo. The shape and placement of the west coast ridge when the energies start to make their slide down from western Canada into the us is key. 12z had a more N to S trajectory. 18z more of a SE slide which kicked the whole precess too far east. Something in between would have been money. Good point. The 12z run had an impressive anticyclonic(over the top) wave break. Still highly amplified, but not so much this run. Something somewhat in between would probably work, dependent on timing of NS energy associated with the TPV. Lots of moving parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, Solution Man said: Will be fun to track….that’s why the call ‘em models Well of course! But what I find most interesting now is that we had a run or two this past week where the GFS showed a monster but no other real support from other models. Now, that general idea is showing up for next weekend pretty much across the board in one way or another (granted, looking at the deterministic solutions). So the possibility of that is not quite so crazy sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Everybody needs to take 10 deep breaths and chill out. This possible threat is 175 hours out. When I read many doomsday proclamations, I chuckle. All of this will change a dozen times during the next week. Remember, there is a threat 150 - 200 hours in the future. All of the hype and perceived expert hyperbole at this point means nothing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Look at all these human pendulums in here. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 It’s an off run. We toss 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: So 12Z Euro has us worried and sweating about temperatures, while now the 18Z GFS has us concerned about wide right and then slamming New England!! Well...the one consistent thing as others have said is that there is some consensus at least on a significant event next weekend. But so many details that aren't going to be ironed out anytime really soon. Unfortunately, not a standard ideal setup where you know what's coming for the most part and it's a matter of small details only and not the overall evolution (a'la 2010 or Jan. 2016). In other words...accept the chaos and uncertainty...because it's all we got for the next several days! When there's big potential we always wanna know certainties even more than usual, but again, chaos...get your towels out if you wanna sweat on the Zs, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Look at all these human pendulums in here. You new here? It's our modus operandi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Who cares? Road trip? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: In other words...accept the chaos and uncertainty...because it's all we got for the next several days! When there's big potential we always wanna know certainties even more than usual, but again, chaos...get your towels out if you wanna sweat on the Zs, lol Haha, pretty much!! But like I said, the one thing that is now looking more possible across the models is a potentially monster event...somewhere! That's more or less the takeaway. Or at least, the wild solution the GFS showed the other day is perhaps not so much the "crazy-uncle-in-the-attic" after all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 The signals remain the same. All good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Look at all these human pendulums in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Look at all these human pendulums in here. A lot of these people should never look at an op run at range, esp consecutive cycles. I mean, 12z and 18z are so close and exactly what we(collectively) want to see at this juncture. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: A lot of these people should never look at an op run at range, esp consecutive cycles. I mean, 12z and 18z are so close and exactly what we(collectively) want to see at this juncture. Yep. Exactly. The big take away is all 3 globals show an intense Storm along the east coast in about a week. Pretty good consensus for an amplified pattern next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, Chris78 said: Yep. Exactly. The big take away is all 3 globals show an intense Storm along the east coast in about a week. Pretty good consensus for an amplified pattern next weekend. My take as well. Honestly, I was actually a bit surprised that all 3 major global deterministic runs showed a similar thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: A lot of these people should never look at an op run at range, esp consecutive cycles. I mean, 12z and 18z are so close and exactly what we(collectively) want to see at this juncture. Yeah I'd like to see the ensembles continue to improve for the threat window first...those previous storms where the ops lead the way were a little disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Who cares? I do. I’ll be in NH next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: A lot of these people should never look at an op run at range, esp consecutive cycles. I mean, 12z and 18z are so close and exactly what we(collectively) want to see at this juncture. I NEED my fix of blue pixels man! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 What’s truly hilarious is if it showed a perfect bomb over us same people would rush to freak out that you don’t want to be in the perfect spot now. Literally, it’s a crazed over-reaction no matter the outcome. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: What’s truly hilarious is if it showed a perfect bomb over us same people would rush to freak out that you don’t want to be in the perfect spot now. Literally, it’s a crazed over-reaction no matter the outcome. Correct...All stems from the same kind of nervous angst, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 All we really need is the idea of it. We have that. Let’s move onto 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: A lot of these people should never look at an op run at range, esp consecutive cycles. I mean, 12z and 18z are so close and exactly what we(collectively) want to see at this juncture. BINGO. This man here gets it. Da fuq can somebody sweat details at a >100 hr map? Right now, I'm looking for general and broad signal. It's still there. Why would anybody want it to show the perfect scenario now when they know damn well it's not going to hold for the next 30 or so runs? 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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