WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: we have a strong signal on all of the globals. This 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: lol and I thought the GFS solution was goofy Pouring rain on screaming southerlies all the way into northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: Thats the new 50/50 high we all love to see What? You don't like a 700 mile stretch of SE flow coming right over the warm Atlantic? Usually works out fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 What a bonkers set of 12z model runs. The Euro has over a foot for Atlanta and then cold rain up through Maine, GFS has a biblical snowstorm for the southeast and the GGEM also has a storm. The important thing is they all show something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 How would you even get rain with that 500 pass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, Interstate said: How would you even get rain with that 500 pass? Torched out Atlantic and displaced high pressure region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: How would you even get rain with that 500 pass? same problem as last weekend...system cuts off and amplifies too far south and without blocking we get a blast of SE flow ahead of it and nothing to stop it from cutting due north. But way too early to worry about that yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Something interesting to note...if we do get a bomb in that time period, the wave breaking from it flips the NAO negative and completely changes the pattern progression behind it. Suddenly we would be tracking threats in early February also as a result. So even if we don't necessarily "win" with the big snowfall totals from this storm its a good thing anyways. Bombs away! 14 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: Something interesting to note...if we do get a bomb in that time period, the wave breaking from it flips the NAO negative and completely changes the pattern progression behind it. Suddenly we would be tracking threats in early February also as a result. So even if we don't necessarily "win" with the big snowfall totals from this storm its a good thing anyways. Bombs away! Funny u mention that. I was glancing at some of the ens stuff for very early Feb and also noticed the more of a signal for a big low in the East and more of a dampening out of the big flip.....or maybe we can call it kicking the can. Agreed tho, let it bomb out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 If you don’t like what the Euro is showing irt temps just blame it on the Tonga eruption 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Funny u mention that. I was glancing at some of the ens stuff for very early Feb and also noticed the more of a signal for a big low in the East and more of a dampening out of the big flip.....or maybe we can call it kicking the can. Agreed tho, let it bomb out. I have no idea how permanent it is...a wave breaking induced NAO ridge that is going against the base state is likely not going to last too long...but it would create a window behind it for a few days to a week at least, instead of going right into a SE ridge. And there are numerous STJ waves coming in that period with the Pacific shuffling...that is a setup that could produce something...pacific waves attacking cold in the northeast following a temporary block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Would be nice if we could actually get a real HP in a more classic spot with one of these waves. Don't need a big block (would be nice lol) but strong closed lows to our south are warm air vacuums. Euro is a nice storm but awful setup for a cold feed on top. Just a simple banana or even pickle shaped 1030 sliding across our noggins as precip approaches would work. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, weathercoins said: If you don’t like what the Euro is showing irt temps just blame it on the Tonga eruption Interesting theory brother. I suppose when the Southern Hemisphere is colder we torch harder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Pretty decent look from this range: 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: same problem as last weekend...system cuts off and amplifies too far south and without blocking we get a blast of SE flow ahead of it and nothing to stop it from cutting due north. But way too early to worry about that yet. Sounds like you're worrying about that yet lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 can’t really ask for much better at this range 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: same problem as last weekend...system cuts off and amplifies too far south and without blocking we get a blast of SE flow ahead of it and nothing to stop it from cutting due north. But way too early to worry about that yet. Only time I like seeing an amped up wave to our SW is when we have a good look up top. More problematic here than further inland though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 39 minutes ago, Interstate said: How would you even get rain with that 500 pass? /mid atlantic 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Sounds like you're worrying about that yet lol I think he was just answering the question. If I were at his location and knowing he likes the big dogs and gets bored with the 2-4 deals the rest of us live for, I would be excited by today's op runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 NOT advocating for this kind of solution but it is kinda eerie how similar these are almost the exact same ridge/trough alignment 9 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 The nice thing is the models are picking up on a HP over the top. Give us the GFS HP with the Euro track and its bombs away. But of course mixing would always be an issue with a monster like that anyways. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The nice thing is the models are picking up on a HP over the top. Give us the GFS HP with the Euro track and its bombs away. But of course mixing would always be an issue with a monster like that anyways. I’ll take 6-12+ with some sleet at the height as the storm passes underneath before we get deathbanded. In a hot damn heartbeat. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Welp… one thing is for sure…. Well have plenty of tracking to do over the next 2-3 weeks. I have little doubt we see a 6”+ type storm between now and feb 7th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, jayyy said: The southeast forum is goin’ nucking futs over these runs today They should be. It would be a historic storm for them as modeled. The Euro has 10 inches of snow NE of New Orleans FFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 We need this storm to happen so JB can start comparing all future storms to the superstorm of 2022 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: Welp… one thing is for sure…. Well have plenty of tracking to do over the next 2-3 weeks. I have little doubt we see a 6”+ type storm between now and feb 7th tread carefully lol. it does look promising, though. we're generally very good at precip here...as long as there's cold, it'll snow at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 All I’m saying is this. If 18z shows anything remotely similar the setup, I’d be kinda amazed. The GFS has never given us two in a row of dopamine porn. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: All I’m saying is this. If 18z shows anything remotely similar the setup, I’d be kinda amazed. The GFS has never given us two in a row of dopamine porn. jma has something too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Let's make a deal, if the 18z has a big storm for us, my daily post get tripled by a mod 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Let's make a deal, if the 18z has a big storm for us, my daily post get tripled by a mod I Got a better deal. If it shows anything different, you get one post per day. 2 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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