midatlanticweather Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 24 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: I see the devil in that snow map. Unless you know how to play the fiddle, don't bet on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, mattie g said: One day later than the GFS. Just means the atmosphere is primed. The northern stream wave that the GFS phases into the monster just scoots through the Lakes quickly on the GGEM. But then this beastly closed 500mb low appears out of nowhere and partially phases. Both look like very simple and clean solutions, so obviously a lot of model consistency coming up! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: The northern stream wave that the GFS phases into the monster just scoots through the Lakes quickly on the GGEM. But then this beastly closed 500mb low appears out of nowhere and partially phases. Both look like very simple and clean solutions, so obviously a lot of model consistency coming up! Juiced 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Quasievil said: Anyone got a map for this? The surface low is in SC at the end of the run. Precip only barely in our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The northern stream wave that the GFS phases into the monster just scoots through the Lakes quickly on the GGEM. But then this beastly closed 500mb low appears out of nowhere and partially phases. Both look like very simple and clean solutions, so obviously a lot of model consistency coming up! There's some sort of energy (polar vort?) swinging around the back side of that northern stream wave. That energy looks about to interact with the vort over Georgia. Timing and all that, but I cant help but think the atmosphere just wants to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 3 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 Never seen anything like that. Referring to gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Juiced meh, only 989 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: meh, only 989 mb congrats deep lake and cleveland 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 It’s all fun and games until Augusta gets 30” of snow and the Masters is cancelled until 2030 lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 35 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro will have a 1015 low drifting harmlessly out to sea. The Euro never shows extreme solutions, even in the long range. Correct. It only shows wrong solutions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Juiced Way too far west at that latitude, as Ji said, congrats Cleveland That would destroy the southern Appalachians though. That's gotta end up like 50" in parts of WV 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Never seen anything like that. Referring to gfs Even if there's no chance it'll go down anything like that, it was a freaking wild run. Really fun to look at. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, mattskiva said: Way too far west at that latitude, as Ji said, congrats Cleveland That would destroy the southern Appalachians though. That's gotta end up like 50" in parts of WV There's a legit block though. The main issue I could see is that there is an area of lower heights in the Great Lakes area that the storm could try to move towards. If that block folds back over the top/shifts just slightly west, I can't see it cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Even if there's no chance it'll go down anything like that, it was a freaking wild run. Really fun to look at. Completely agree. Runs like that are why we pay attention to every. freaking. model run in the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, H2O said: Retirement is treating you and us well... I love them, keep them coming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: Even if there's no chance it'll go down anything like that, it was a freaking wild run. Really fun to look at. Literally the craziest thing I’ve ever seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Perfect time to start the new thread, before the 12z runs. Hopefully boosts the mojo. Mods please pin. Thanks mojo boosted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, Ji said: mojo boosted Yeah, into the surreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 DCALEXANDRIA SUPER WEENIE STORM THREAD, create it or the storm bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, DCAlexandria said: DCALEXANDRIA SUPER WEENIE STORM THREAD, create it or the storm bust. Needs a few *ALEET*’s at the beginning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 GEFS has 1 or 2 members that remotely resemble the op. The majority that have a storm have it pretty far off the SE coast. There is something there during that period though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Wow at the GFS / GGEM. Of course, all we should be taking away from this is the overall potential for a bomb off the east coast in the 7-10 day timeframe, but DAAAAYUM, nonetheless. 30” in Augusta Also appears we should not be writing off a potential for a quick 1-2” type clipper for Sunday PM or the Tuesday threat either at this juncture. Spacing looks better for Tuesday. A few more days with improvements at 500 and we are certainly in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: GEFS has 1 or 2 members that remotely resemble the op. The majority that have a storm have it pretty far off the SE coast. There is something there during that period though. Using old GFS logic, we know it is too far south and east! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM and GFS both working slowly in the right direction for Tuesday next week with more spacing between the northern and southern waves. Need that to continue so the northern stream can drag the cold air in enough. GGEM today is very close to that and has a strong enough southern wave to flip us to 1-3" of snow after some rain by dragging in some colder air. Maybe a bit similar set up to the wave in early January 2014. I think it was the 2nd or 3rd. It wasn't really cold leading in but got very cold behind it and the timing was good. I know we got 3-6 north of the city but I'm pretty sure most everyone got at least a couple inches if not more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1. The big ones are sniffed out early. 2. Even if it's too far west, the big ones make their own cold air. Can't fail. La-la lock it up! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: Wow at the GFS / GGEM. Of course, all we should be taking away from this is the overall potential for a bomb off the east coast in the 7-10 day timeframe, but DAAAAYUM, nonetheless. 30” in Augusta Also appears we should not be writing off a potential for a quick 1-2” type clipper for Sunday PM or the Tuesday threat either at this juncture. Spacing looks better for Tuesday. A few more days with improvements at 500 and we are certainly in the game. I’ll jump on the Sunday train with you … but Tuesday is the Titanic and I don’t want to swim lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Mesos's all showing better separation for the Tuesday event as well. Definitely something that seems to be trending more favorable for at least a small event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: GEFS has 1 or 2 members that remotely resemble the op. The majority that have a storm have it pretty far off the SE coast. There is something there during that period though. Yes, I won’t post the mean or percentages or will have everyone taking my head off…ignorance is bliss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Literally the craziest thing I’ve ever seen. It's right up there with the 986 throwing snow back into Jacksonville from a few years ago lol 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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