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NW Trend For the Win! (1/21-1/22 2022 storm) Obs Thread


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Won't be around today as I have a busy weekend with the girlfriend. One thing to look for is convection in the gulf with this storm. It looks to me based on GFS and short range models that it might be enhancing convection which could pump more precip into the area than expected especially points around CLT and just east. I fully expect the precip shield to be further NW than expected. If I'm in RDU I'm licking my chops right now. good luck to everyone and hopefully it overproduces! 

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Some notes for the Triad

The trends east on the last few runs of the HRRR/RAP seem to be due to a layer of dry air not far above the surface. Could be hard to overcome.

Compare this to last night's sounding at GSO when very light snow was falling. Even with dry air working in from the front, the column is fairly well saturated.

Finally, you can see this layer of dry air just above the surface already showing up this morning, so the HRRR, may, unfortunately be correct.

download (8).png

GSO (3).gif

GSO (4).gif

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